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Category: Unseasonably Warm
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/09/colder-air-arrives-tonight-discussing-the-pattern-evolution-over-the-next-couple-weeks/
Dec 08
Week Ahead Outlook: Tracking (2) Notable Systems This Week…
Our weekend will wrap up on a pleasant note. Though clouds will be on the increase, temperatures will rise to much warmer than normal levels by early-December standards. Highs today will top out in the lower to middle 50s with increasing cloudiness.
Those clouds will eventually give way to rain during the overnight hours. A few sprinkles are possible this evening, but it’s not until midnight and into the predawn hours that the more concentrated rain will arrive.
Most of central Indiana can expect rainfall totals between 0.50″ and 1.00″ Monday. The steady rain Monday morning will taper to showers during the afternoon hours.
Colder air will pour into the state Monday night and gusty northwest winds. This cold air mass will eventually “catch up” with the moisture to our southeast and lead to a flip to snow for places from central and eastern KY into the Appalachians Tuesday. Meanwhile, lake effect snow showers will develop across northeast Indiana. For the most part, despite some light snow showers Tuesday morning, central Indiana shouldn’t expect anything “exciting” in the winter weather department.
High pressure will settle overhead through the midweek stretch with sunshine returning along with seasonably cold conditions.
Thereafter, a developing storm system in the Gulf of Mexico will lead to an active close to the week. Low pressure will form in the central Gulf Friday afternoon before tracking up along the Appalachian chain into the weekend. With a lack of cold air and retreating high (orientation of the cold air supply/ high pressure system is critical this time of year), this should be another mostly wet and not white weather maker.
Cold air will eventually wrap into the system from the west late in the weekend and could lead to precipitation ending as wet snow, but this idea is far from being “etched in stone.”
Video update will come a bit later with fresh 12z thoughts, along with a look-ahead to Christmas. Make it a great Sunday, friends!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/08/week-ahead-outlook-tracking-2-notable-systems-this-week/
Dec 07
VIDEO: Arctic Air Comes And Goes Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/07/video-arctic-air-comes-and-goes-next-week/
Dec 06
VIDEO: Quiet Weekend, But A Lot To Discuss Looking Ahead…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/06/video-quiet-weekend-but-a-lot-to-discuss-looking-ahead/
Dec 05
Quiet Weather Continues; Busier Days Ahead Next Week…
Another day of sunshine is on deck with temperatures approaching the 50° mark for many central Indiana communities. Not bad at all by early December standards, huh?
Clouds will increase tonight and remain with us through the end of the work week. These clouds are associated with a system that will scoot by well to our south. Some light rain will likely impact areas south of Indianapolis Friday morning into the early afternoon, but central Indiana should remain precipitation-free.
High pressure will dominate our weekend weather, continuing to lead to quiet conditions along with a return of sunshine.
The next round of more widespread precipitation will push into the state Sunday night into Monday. Even this isn’t anticipated to be significant with most central Indiana reporting sites receiving rainfall amounts of half an inch or less by Monday evening.
As the surface wave pulls up to the northeast, MUCH colder air will whip into the region Tuesday. Light snow will develop as the moisture departs, but we’re still not expecting this to be a big deal in the snow department (dusting to less than 1″ type event as of now).
However, the cold is another story. Wednesday morning will feature lows in the lower to middle teens with single digit wind chill values. In the it could “always be worse” department, check out those temperatures our friends across the upper Mid West and northern Plains will have to deal with…
Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/05/quiet-weather-continues-busier-days-ahead-next-week/
Dec 04
Wednesday Evening Long Range Update…
A fascinating case study lies in front of us as we go through the next couple of weeks. This evening’s video update dives deeper.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/04/wednesday-evening-long-range-update/
Dec 04
Sunshine And Moderating Temperatures Return; Changeable Weather Next Week…
After a gloomy stretch of weather, the sunshine will make a return appearance today.
While some patchy freezing fog is possible tonight (lows will fall into the upper 20s to around 30°), this shouldn’t be a widespread problem into Thursday morning.
Our quiet stretch of weather will continue into the weekend. A fast moving system will scoot off to our south Thursday evening into Friday while reinforcing chilly air blows by to our northeast. We’ll be in between both systems and the end result will be a continued stretch of dry weather along with moderating temperatures into the weekend.
As high pressure nudges southeast into Saturday, this will be the better of the 2 weekend days, including the most sunshine. Highs will top out in the lower to middle 40s.
With a return southwesterly air flow developing Sunday, temperatures will be even milder (highs in the low to mid 50s), but clouds will increase and drizzle/ light rain will follow by evening.
Light showers will continue into Monday morning, but this won’t be a significant event. Rainfall totals should be heaviest across the eastern sections of the Ohio Valley (amounts greater than 0.50″) with lighter totals for immediate central Indiana of generally less than one half inch.
That’s when things get a little more interesting. A secondary area of low pressure will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday. As this takes place, colder air will be pouring into the state on gusty northwest winds. The “backside” precipitation will likely transition to light snow Tuesday before ending. While early indications don’t suggest this will be a significant event, we’ll keep an eye on it. The bigger story will be the transient shot of arctic air. Temperatures will fall into the 10s Tuesday with those gusty winds.
With unfavorable teleconnections and the MJO rumbling into Phase 3, this cold shot won’t hold and a milder pattern will likely return by the second half of next week. That’s when we’ll be track our next wet weather maker…
Make it a great Wednesday! We’ll have our next video update posted later this evening!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/04/sunshine-and-moderating-temperatures-return-changeable-weather-next-week/
Dec 03
VIDEO: Quiet Now, But Interesting Times Ahead Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/03/video-quiet-now-but-interesting-times-ahead-next-week/
Dec 02
VIDEO: Week Ahead Outlook; What Awaits For Mid Month?
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/02/video-week-ahead-outlook-what-awaits-for-mid-month/
Dec 02
More December Rumblings: MJO, PNA, EPO Don’t Favor Sustained Cold (Yet)…
For those that may not have had an opportunity to review our December Outlook over the busy Thanksgiving weekend, you can do so here.
This morning, we wanted to again review our forecast and provide further context behind our overall active, warmer than normal call for the month as a whole.
Before digging in to those additional details, here’s our 2019 December Forecast:
The “baseline” of this slightly-moderately milder than normal December is due to what appears to be the tendency of the MJO to run into the warmer phases (remember, Phases 3-5 this time of year argue for warmer than normal conditions across the East). The most updated MJO forecast continues to stay the course here.
At least through mid-December, the PNA and EPO are also forecast to be in phases that would support warmer than normal conditions across our portion of the country in the overall sense.
This isn’t to say that we won’t have cold and snow to deal with at times this month. We just believe the colder, wintry conditions that may present themselves will be transitional and that warmth will win out at the end of the day.
As we look ahead, there’s reason to believe other factors will come into play that will begin to change the pattern towards one that’s more suited for prolonged cold around, or just before, Christmas. Furthermore, despite the relative warmth forecast for the month of December, we remain firm on the idea of a colder, snowier than normal winter season.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/12/02/more-december-rumblings-mjo-pna-epo-dont-favor-sustained-cold-yet/