Updated 01.06.22 @ 7:20a
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Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/06/video-double-shot-of-arctic-love-heading-our-way-long-range-update-into-late-january/
Jan 05
VIDEO: Tracking (2) Arctic Fronts In The Days Ahead…
Updated 01.05.21 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/05/video-tracking-2-arctic-fronts-in-the-days-ahead/
Jan 04
VIDEO: Coldest Air Of The Season Inbound…
Updated 01.04.22 @ 7:50a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/04/video-coldest-air-of-the-season-inbound/
Jan 03
VIDEO: Keeping Close Eyes On Thursday…
Updated 01.03.22 @ 7:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/03/video-keeping-close-eyes-on-thursday/
Jan 02
VIDEO: Cold Air Reinforces Itself Midweek; What About Snow Chances?
Updated 01.02.22 @ 8:20a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/02/video-cold-air-reinforces-itself-midweek-what-about-snow-chances/
Jan 01
The Long Awaited Shift To More Winter-Like Conditions Begins…
Updated 01.01.22 @ 8:06a
From our family to yours, here’s wishing you a happy, healthy, and prosperous 2022!
As we embark on a new year, a new weather pattern will take hold. Consider the drastic difference of going from a regime that’s been much more October or November-like (December ‘21 temperatures ran a stunning 8.8° above average on the month) to one that will feature a series of reinforcing blasts of cold air- at what’s traditionally the coldest time of the year.
The reasons behind the shift in the pattern start with the MJO moving into Phase 8.
Can we amplify things into Phase 1 towards mid month? The American modeling suggests that’s on the playing field. Meanwhile, the Euro wants to take things towards the neutral phase. If we can swing into Phase 1, the ante would be upped for “locking” the cold in for the 2nd half of the month.
As it is, the majority of teleconnections are being “forced” (byproduct, in my opinion, of the MJO) into more favorable phases for cold. Remember, only a couple days ago this wasn’t being shown, but as the data is understanding the driving force (MJO movement), the EPO is joining the PNA and WPO colder camp. I would expect the AO trend to follow suit in the week ahead.
More on all of this in the AM, including the opportunities for snow and wintry precipitation (more than the novelty level stuff we’ll deal with early Sunday AM) in the weeks ahead…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2022/01/01/the-long-awaited-shift-to-more-winter-like-conditions-begins/
Dec 31
VIDEO: Changeable Conditions As We Open 2022…
Updated 12.31.21 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/31/video-changeable-conditions-as-we-open-2022/
Dec 30
VIDEO: More Significant Storm As We Usher In The New Year; Long Range Update…
Updated 12.30.21 @ 8a
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/30/video-more-significant-storm-as-we-usher-in-the-new-year-long-range-update/
Dec 26
For Now, It’s A Tale Of The MJO And PNA…
Updated 12.26.21 @ 7:38a
Over the past couple of weeks, several of the teleconnections (EPO, AO, and NAO) have been in favorable phases for cold air to take up residence in our neck of the woods. However the combination of Phase 6 of the MJO (image 1 below) and a deeply negative PNA (image 2 below) have fought off any sustained or significant cold.
As we look ahead, there are changes in both of these critical pattern drivers. First, the MJO looks to continue progressing deeper into Phase 7. This is significant as today, though while officially in 7, we’re really still feeling the effects of 6. There’s a lean from guidance that Phase 8 is also within reach as we get towards mid-January, but we won’t get greedy. 🙂 If we can at least get deeper into 7, that will greatly lessen the influence of the warmth that continues to linger with Phase 6.
Note how the trough likes to settle into the eastern portion of the country during these phases.
That then brings us to the PNA. Guidance is trending things closer to neutral towards Day 10. This is significant as it would allow the southeastern ridge to at least get beaten down (not totally squashed as long as we remain negative), but certainly enough to allow the cold currently bottled up out west to bleed east.
This can be illustrated best by looking at the 500mb pattern evolution over the next couple weeks per the latest GFS ensemble below.
To summarize, while we still have warm days ahead of us, there does at least appear to be a couple trends heading in the right direction for all of those longing for colder and potentially more wintry times as we get past the new year.
Hang in there you snow lovers. It’s far too early to jump off the ship…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/26/for-now-its-a-tale-of-the-mjo-and-pna/
Dec 16
Long-Winded Discussion Diving Into The Pattern As We Welcome In 2022…
Updated 12.16.21 @ 6:07p
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/12/16/long-winded-discussion-diving-into-the-pattern-as-we-welcome-in-2022/