http:/ Tonight’s Video Highlights: We talk rain and amounts for Thursday and Friday. The coldest air of the season and coldest November day in some 13 years is ahead! A…
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Updated 11.17.13 @ 8:46pm
Zionsville, IN Sunday was a violent day across central Indiana, including multiple tornado touchdowns (Lebanon and Kokomo, for example), heavy rain (widespread 1″+ totals), and damaging straight line winds (numerous trees and power lines down across the region, fueled by 70-80 MPH wind gusts).
Thankfully the new work week will dawn with a much calmer weather pattern in place, albeit much cooler. High pressure will dominate our region, featuring dry and mostly sunny conditions both Monday and Tuesday. Monday will still be a bit breezy and we’ll note a stronger push of cold air arriving Monday night, setting the stage for a seasonably chilly Tuesday and Wednesday.
Our next weather maker will arrive as we wrap up the work week. The culprit will be a cold front blowing through the Hoosier state and while model data differs significantly on precipitation totals in the Thursday-Friday time period, we’re confident in rain falling followed by a big blast of cold air for the weekend.
Looking ahead to Thanksgiving week, the threat is there for some wintry “mischief” as southern branch low pressure attempts to attack the cold high to our north… We have plenty of time to watch this, but just make a mental note in the back of your mind for now as you prep for Thanksgiving holiday travel.
Monday: Mostly sunny; 40/ 51
Tuesday: Mostly sunny; 29/ 48
Wednesday: Increasing afternoon cloudiness; 30/ 51
Thursday: Cloudy and raw with rain likely; 43/ 49
Friday: Cloudy with rain likely; 44/ 49
Saturday: Mostly cloudy and colder; 30/ 39
Sunday: Mostly sunny and cold; 19/ 30
We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely. Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday. The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data. Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening. Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels. The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.
Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.
Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event. This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack… The latest European model isn’t holding back. Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up? We’ll monitor closely.
As I write this, many Hoosiers are awaking to temperatures at downright bitter levels, despite the fact it’s only mid November. The official low here at IndyWx.com HQ was a frosty 18 degrees and a far cry from the normal low of 37.
The early season bitter air mass has even settled in across portions of the Deep South and Coastal Plain. Amazingly, snow was reported along the Carolina coastline last night (almost unheard of for mid November). Note the deep freeze penetrating far into the Deep South. My home town of Auburn, AL dipped to a frigid 27 degrees this morning. Again, very rare for so early in the season.
It’s my job to look at what is behind these expansive early season bitter attacks of air (by the way, another bitterly cold air mass is ahead next week). In my opinion, a lot of the early shots of impressive arctic air has to do with the widespread early snow and ice pack developing across the Northern Hemisphere. We wrote about this first back on October 17th and the snow and ice pack has only been growing since. The latest image shows a very impressive and vast snow and ice pack for so early in the season. As early season cold moves south into the Lower 48, it doesn’t have much time to modify as it passes over the growing early season snow pack.
As we look ahead, despite the weekend warm-up, another impressive shot of arctic air will plow into the Hoosier state early next week (perhaps even colder than this current air mass). The European forecast model, once again, shows temperatures 12-18 degrees below normal by early next week.
Temperatures currently are running well below normal in similar areas modeling is sticking the “heart” of the cold next week.
As we continue rumbling into the colder, snowier months ahead, one has to at least wonder what the overall impact of the early season expansive snow and ice cover during October and November will leave on the winter of 2013-2014…