As we progress into another weekend, weather conditions simply couldn’t be any better for this time of year.  The back half of the weekend will transition to one that’s more unsettled and feature showers and thunderstorms for Sunday.  Modeling today is backing off on the heavy rain event Sunday and hitting another system coming through the pipeline Tuesday into Wednesday with heavy rain.  We’ll keep an eye on things and update our forecast Friday morning.  Regardless, let us worry about Sunday and you be sure to enjoy Friday and Saturday!

The pool of cool will keep things feeling might nice through the first half of the weekend, along with low humidity and plenty of sunshine!

As we look into the long range, there are some questions that arise.  The questions don’t have to do with warming that’s likely to take place late week 2 (90s within reach), but just how long that ridge and associated dome of heat hangs around.  The European ensembles would imply the bubbling heat ridge will stick around for a few days.

Meanwhile, it should be noted that the European weeklies disagree with its own ensemble package as they bring a cooler pattern and associated trough back into the Great Lakes and northeast region as we get set to head into the last week of June.  Due to licensing issues we can’t show the European weeklies here, but they deliver quite the trough and cooler than normal air mass around, or just after, the 23rd.

Additionally, the PSD agrees and delivers a cool pattern around June 20th.

So, while we’re likely to see the hottest weather of the season so far towards Day 10, confidence of this hot weather sticking and holding is very low.  Timing will have to be resolved as it always does in long range weather.  Overall, what’s more likely to happen is that this will be a transient hot pattern and we flip the script to one that’s cooler than average as we go into the last week of the month.