Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Oct 17

Afternoon Thoughts…

1.) Model data continues to point towards some impressively cold air for so early in the season as we move through October’s 2nd half.  2.) Latest raw ECMWF numbers suggest highs next week remain in the 40s for (4) consecutive days- beginning Tuesday and continuing through Friday.  This is extremely impressive for so early in the season. 3.) Northern hemisphere snow and ice cover is running well ahead of this time last year.  There have been studies that suggest this helps promote blocking in the winter months ahead.  (Latest image is posted below).  Time will tell…. 4.) We’re not looking at particularly heavy precipitation amounts over the next week, or so, but there will be a few systems that will produce rain and/ or snow showers (yes, snow) between now and this time next week. Model precipitation amounts range from one tenth to one half inch over the next 7-10 days.  5.) There are some hints we may be looking at another surge of even colder air just in time (or around) Halloween.  You may want to invest in a warm costume this year! 🙂

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Oct 15

Wednesday Forecast: Getting To Be That Time Of Year!

Updated 10.15.13 @ 4:42p

Zionsville, IN Rain showers will continue pushing east of the region tonight and we should be rain-free Wednesday. We discuss what’s sure to be a busy, chilly forecast below!

Status-weather-clouds-iconWednesday: Partly cloudy; 50/ 61

Tuesday’s rain will be all, but a memory Wednesday with sunshine returning to your forecast. A north breeze will be in play, helping usher in cooler temperatures.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: Scattered showers; 0.10; 44/ 58

Some weak upper level energy will move across the state on Thursday and this could help spark a scattered shower.  We’re not looking at all day rains or significant rainfall by any means.  Besides the rain, the other big weather story Thursday will be the chilly air.  We’ll be far below the middle 60s, which is considered the normal high for this time of year.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 63

We’ll wrap up the work week with very pleasant autumn weather.  A secondary cold front and resurgent chilly air will be set to invade for the weekend, but we think the frontal passage holds off until Friday night. As of now, we forecast the front to come through dry.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 40/ 54

Cool Canadian air will flow into the Hoosier state Saturday amidst chilly northerly breezes.  Winds may gust upwards of 20 MPH or so during the daytime Saturday.  You’ll certainly need that jacket or sweater as you head out to the fall festivals or the pumpkin patch!

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 38/ 57

Weather conditions will be very similar to that of Saturday on Sunday.  Dry skies and chilly breezes will dominate our landscape.  Temperatures will remain below average.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconMonday: PM shower chance; 0.10; 39/ 64

Our winds will back around briefly to the southwest and allow just enough moisture northward to potentially lead to a broken band of showers to move through the region Monday evening/ early Tuesday ahead of our next cold front. Most of your daytime Monday will remain dry and rain-free.  This front is packing a punch in the temperature department and will likely produce the coldest air so far this fall season by the middle of next week, including the chance of the first official freeze for IND.

imagesTuesday: Mostly cloudy; 41/ 49

As of now, next Tuesday is shaping up to be a rather cloudy, raw day.  Strong cold air advection will be ongoing.  Gusty north winds will help usher in the coldest air so far this fall season.  In fact, highs likely will remain below 50 degrees next Tuesday with mostly cloudy skies and chilly north winds.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-forecast-getting-to-be-that-time-of-year/

Oct 15

Change On The Horizon…

So far, October 2013 is running well above normal in the temperature department: As shown above, the lower lakes and Ohio valley region has been the target for the biggest…

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Oct 13

Monday Forecast: Heading Into A Colder Pattern

Updated 10.13.13 @ 5:33p

Zionsville, IN After enjoying a pleasant Sunday, we’re getting set for a busy time in the good ole forecast office this week.  This is just the beginning of a more active, colder, pattern that should carry us through the end of October…

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 43/ 67

The new work week will dawn with pleasant skies and chilly conditions.  Some outlying areas could even dip into the 30s tonight/ early Monday.  We target the lower 40s officially for IND under fair skies. Dry conditions are on tap Monday with very pleasant temperatures.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Late Showers; 0.10; 52/ 72

Most of your Tuesday will remain rain-free, but we target our next cold front for a Tuesday night/ Wednesday arrival. As a result, we think a broken band of showers moves through the state Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning.  We’re not expecting heavy rain with this event and the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures for mid and late week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: AM showers; 0.25; 48/ 61 (falling)

As mentioned above, our cold front will push east of the region Wednesday morning and usher in a wind shift to the northwest that’ll result in falling temperatures through the day. We think area thermometers are in the 50s by Wednesday afternoon along with a gusty northwest wind.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Mostly cloudy; 43/ 54

Cool will be the word Thursday with highs not making it out of the middle 50s.  As of now we think we remain dry Thursday with partly to mostly cloudy skies in place.  We’ll monitor for the chance of an instability-driven light shower chance, but these will likely be few and far between.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 42/ 60; Saturday: Mostly cloudy; 39/ 52

Partly cloudy and cool conditions will be with us as we wrap up the work week and head into the weekend. A cold front will blow through the state Friday evening, but it looks like moisture will be limited with this frontal passage. Again, similar, to that of the early week front, the bigger deal will be the drop in temperatures.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSunday: Mostly cloudy with rain developing; 0.25; 43/ 54

Modeling is not in agreement with each other in regards to our next potential weather maker.  As a result, we’ll have to fine tune our Sunday forecast as we move forward.  If the next storm system is slower, then temperatures will be much cooler for overnight lows Saturday night and Sunday morning (into the 30s). As of now, we think clouds increase enough to prevent lows from falling much further than the lower 40s.  Otherwise, Sunday looks like a day where clouds lower and thicken through the day with rain not far behind.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-heading-into-a-colder-pattern/

Oct 10

Changes Brewing?

After an unseasonably cool summer, the pattern flipped to a warmer regime during the month of September.  That same warm pattern continues presently, but are changes brewing?

We note the PNA (Pacific North American pattern) is trending positive and this could help promote more of a sustained trough and associated cooler than normal pattern to wrap up October.  Would it be enough to offset the very warm first half of October?  Too early to tell.  However, I will say that with the PNA trending positive, it does suggest we’ll be looking at more sustained chilly conditions, as opposed to the “in and out” flirtations of cool air as of late.

The GEFS suggests a trough sets up shop across the eastern part of the country for the back half of October.

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