Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Nov 09

Closer Look At Saturday!

Happy college football Saturday!  Here’s a quick post before the fun begins this afternoon!  War Eagle!

Today will be a beautiful day, albeit windy.  Winds will gust out of the southwest up to 30 MPH at times. Partly cloudy skies are on tap as highs reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, courtesy of that mild southwest air flow.

Enjoy the warmth while you have it, as the next 7 days will be MUCH colder than average.  By Tuesday, highs will remain in the 30s with AM light snow. Overnight lows by Wednesday morning?  How do the lower 20s sound?

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_16

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closer-look-at-saturday/

Nov 08

Closer Look At Friday

*Your full forecast for the week ahead can be found below this post.

We’re starting the day off with cold and frosty conditions. Most are waking up to the middle to upper 20s with a heavy frost.

hrrr_t2m_min_indy_3

With lots of sunshine, highs today will moderate, but remain well below normal, reaching the lower 50s for many.  Cooler air will reside northeast of Indy, noted by the high-resolution HRRR showing upper 40s for afternoon highs.

hrrr_t2m_max_indy_16

A warm front will blow through the region this afternoon with an increase in evening cloudiness and a wind shift to the south tonight. This will lead to a milder night tonight and is only a prelude to what will be a very windy Saturday, despite warmer air in place.

hrrr_uv10m_slp_indy_16

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/closer-look-at-friday/

Nov 06

Thursday Forecast: Eyeing Snow Next Week?

Updated 11.06.13 @ 10:26p

Zionsville, IN For the most part, rainfall totals today have been under what model guidance suggested.  For an area still wetter than normal, that’s not a bad thing.  We’re now dealing with drier conditions moving into the western parts of the state and colder air building in on a gusty northwest wind!  Bundle up on your way out the door tomorrow morning as wind chills will be well into the 20s.

Status-weather-clouds-iconThursday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 47

After a wet and gloomy Wednesday, it’ll be nice to see the sunshine return Thursday.  Prepare for a much colder and blustery day with highs not making it out of the 40s along with a gusty northwest wind around 20 MPH from time to time.  You’ll want to have the heavier coat handy as morning wind chills in the 20s will only “warm” into the 30s by afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 30/ 49

We’ll wrap up the work week with dry and chilly conditions in play.  Some mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase Friday afternoon, but won’t result in much more than what would be considered a partly to mostly cloudy sky Friday afternoon.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy; 37/ 56

A dry pattern will remain Saturday. Our air flow will back around to a more southwesterly direction Saturday and help boost temperatures to the “warmest” levels of the period.  That said, middle 50s are only considered “average” for this time of year.  While it won’t be considered anything more than “seasonable,” it’ll be much milder than what lies ahead next week…

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 39/ 52

A slightly cooler air mass will settled into the region Saturday night.  Partly cloudy and pleasant weather will be with us as we wrap up the weekend.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 36/ 54

While our attention turns to colder air and a potential snow maker by mid week, you let us “worry” about that.  All you need to do is enjoy a dry and pleasant start to the work week, thanks to high pressure.

 

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconTuesday: Increasing cloudiness; developing nighttime rain/ snow mix (1-2″); 31/ 40

We’re keeping a close eye on a developing storm system Tuesday night. At this time, we think strong Canadian high pressure begins to funnel much colder air into central Indiana on brisk north and northeast winds. At the same time, developing upper level energy will dive southeast and assist in beginning to spread precipitation into the state as early as Tuesday afternoon.

While we’re confident in a cold pattern developing for midweek, there are more questions than answers in regards to the exact storm track and the resulting precipitation totals and precise transition to wintry precipitation. While it’s still early, there is the potential for this to be the first true widespread accumulating snow of the young ’13-’14 snow season.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-snow-scattered-day-iconWednesday: AM clouds and flurries then decreasing cloudiness; 25/ 36

Again, we’ll have to sort out the timing and precise track with our storm system in the Tuesday-Wednesday period, but for now we think the more significant precipitation is falling to our east by Wednesday with just some lingering AM flurries and MUCH colder weather for your hump day.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-forecast-eyeing-snow-next-week/

Nov 05

Two Totally Different Solutions For Next Week!

I wanted to quickly post on two totally different scenarios for next week.  Two of the more powerful forecast models we use to look into the mid-long range are in separate worlds when it comes to the weather pattern the middle to latter part of next week.

Here’s a look at the GFS upper air pattern:

gfs_z500_sig_east_38

Note the eastern ridging which would lead to well above normal temperatures during the middle to latter part of next week (by as much as 10 degrees above average), along with dry conditions.

HOWEVER, here’s a look at the European’s forecast upper air pattern late next week:

ecm_z500_anom_east_11

This would certainly be quite the significant storm for the Northeast, but the implications here are vastly different from that which the GFS shows above.  Instead of warmth and dry conditions, we’d deal with highs in the middle 30s and overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s.  Additionally, we’d also “enjoy” (okay, some folks would “enjoy”) snow showers and snow squalls the middle to latter portion of next week, as noted per the European below, including a lake Michigan connection.

ecmwf_slp_precip_ky_36

 

Needless to say, we have a lot to sort out in the coming days.  We’ll be here to do just that.  Make it a great Tuesday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/two-totally-different-solutions-for-next-week/

Nov 03

Monday Forecast: Tracking Another Storm

Updated 11.03.13 @ 3:30p

Zionsville, IN It’s been a beautiful fall weekend across central Indiana. Aside from a couple of quick-moving showers Saturday evening, the weather couldn’t have been more perfect!  While the work week will start off on a pleasant note, we’re tracking another storm and significant blast of chill later this week.

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly to mostly cloudy; 38/ 58

The day should dawn with bright sunshine, however, we note the latest high resolution short-term model data suggesting mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase through the afternoon hours.  It’ll be a dry day with seasonable temperatures.  Enjoy!

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Mostly cloudy; nighttime light showers (0.10″); 44/ 61

We’ll be in between high pressure to our east and our next approaching storm system to our west. As a result, a return southerly flow of air will help begin to transport milder air northward, along with increasing moisture Tuesday evening. The daytime hours should remain rain-free, but we’ll introduce a couple of light showers into our forecast Tuesday night.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconWednesday: Showers and thunderstorms, especially at night (0.70″); 49/ 60

A significant cold front will approach the region Wednesday. Showers will be likely through the day, but we still believe the heavier rains and embedded thunder will hold off until Wednesday night (especially after dark).  While we’re still monitoring any threat of severe weather, the bigger threat at this time appears to be another round of heavy rain falling atop a waterlogged central Indiana.  Stay tuned as we continue to analyze the latest data and update things accordingly.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconThursday: AM showers and thunderstorms (0.40″);  38/ 55 (falling)

The cold front will blow through the region Thursday morning.  Showers and thunderstorms will end west to east during the morning followed by a sharp temperature decline through the day, coupled with strong northwesterly winds gusting upwards of 30 MPH.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 29/ 48

A much colder air mass will settle into central Indiana Thursday evening and result in a hard freeze Friday morning. After waking up to lows in the upper 20s, highs will reach the upper 40s with partly cloudy skies.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconSaturday: Partly cloudy and breezy; 40/ 55

Our fast-moving weather pattern will remain next weekend.  We’re tracking another storm system that will blow through the Great Lakes region Saturday. Current thinking places the track of this low too far north to impact the region from a precipitation standpoint, but we’ll certainly note a strengthening southwesterly wind Saturday followed by another shot of cold air Saturday night/ Sunday.  Highs next Sunday will likely remain in the 40s…

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-forecast-tracking-another-storm/