Mar 08
Updated 03.08.24 @ 7:50a “Showery” weather through the early to mid afternoon will give way to an increasingly heavier rain by evening, continuing through the overnight. This is all thanks…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/03/08/video-rain-increases-in-intensity-by-evening-mjo-influences-on-the-longer-range/
Feb 20
Updated 02.20.24 @ 5:30a
Today and Wednesday (at least during the daytime) are about as quiet and pleasant as it can get for late-February. After another cold start, we’ll quickly warm into the 50s later this afternoon. We’ll do even better than that come Wednesday as highs flirt with the 60° mark. Patio, anyone?!
Moisture won’t make a return until overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning. We note modeling is honing in on central and southern Indiana for the potential of heaviest rain during the period (most of which falls Thursday morning into the afternoon) and we may also see a couple of thunderstorms thrown into the mix, especially downstate. A solid 0.50″ to 1″ appears most reasonable for area rain gauges.
Behind this feature, a brief drop in temperatures can be expected for the weekend, but we won’t really even be able to call this air mass “cold” by late February standards. Nonetheless, trailing upper level energy and just enough cooler air will be enough to ignite a few snow showers Saturday.
We want to reiterate that this upcoming weekend’s snow potential is nothing compared to last weekend and we’ll be right back into the 50s and 60s by Sunday!
That brings us to early next week. While still a bit too far out to get specific, the potential of a more potent storm system is there and we’ll have to keep close tabs on the threat of a more widespread rain and embedded strong storm threat as we get closer. More on this feature in the days ahead.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/20/on-cruise-control-but-there-are-a-few-bumps-on-the-road/
Feb 19
Updated 02.19.24 @ 8:37a An upper level ridge will expand across the eastern portion of the country as we close February and open March. The result will be an increasingly…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/19/video-spring-like-pattern-to-close-february-and-open-march/
Feb 18
Updated 02.18.24 @ 10:59a
Though we dealt with a bitter start to the day, those strong and gusty southwest winds signal a regime change through the 1st half of the work week. Highs will pop into the 60s even by midweek- a far cry from this morning’s sub-zero “feels like” over the heart of the fresh snowpack.
The upcoming 10-day period will feature an expanding ridge across the East and the ‘mean’ trough position settling into the West.
After another brief shot of cold air this weekend, a significant unseasonably mild pattern will arrive next week. Cold settles into the West.
The developing upper air pattern will lead to a more active storm track to close February and open March. See the anticipated above normal precipitation pattern taking hold. This is likely a sign of what the balance of meteorological spring will feature.
In the week ahead, we continue to track a rain maker Wednesday night into Thursday and a brief “jolt” of cold for the weekend.
Looking ahead to next week, a more widespread and stronger storm should take aim on our area. Though still a ways off, the signal is one that looks like this feature will be able to tap into the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for a more widespread, potentially, heavier rain event and also the chance of storms.
Note precipitable water values (PWATs) are forecast nearly 300% of the norm.
As we get closer, we’ll have to keep tabs on instability levels and available energy for the prospects of storms. More on this Day 8-10 feature in the coming days. Make it a great Sunday!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/18/taste-of-spring-to-close-february-and-open-march-monitoring-storm-potential/
Feb 17
Updated 02.17.24 @ 8:43a
Yesterday’s snow storm was a sight for sore eyes, especially for my snow-starved central Indiana friends (you know who you are).
I took a couple of these pictures outside a cozy dinner at the Loft at Traders Point Creamery last night. “Serene” doesn’t begin to describe the evening.
Low clouds and lingering lake-driven snow flurries this morning should give way to a brightening afternoon sky. We’ll stay bitter today with the fresh heavier snowpack. Highs will struggle to make it into the middle 20s. Winds will remain gusty this morning before a bit of a “lull” and then pick up yet again overnight into Sunday morning.
Those southwest winds will indicate a flip to milder times into midweek and overall dry conditions. Rain will return overnight Wednesday into Thursday, but doesn’t appear to be overly heavy from this distance.
After spring-like highs in the 60s midweek, another cold “jab” will take aim on the region going into next weekend. We use the term “jab” as this once again won’t be a cold air mass with staying power. We likely will quickly return back into the 50s and 60s next week after a day or two in the 30s over the weekend. Timing the cold and moisture may yet again produce a round of snow late next week and we’ll continue to keep an eye on that in the days ahead.
Overall, this will likely prove to reinforce the idea that any cold over the course of the coming couple weeks will be transient in nature. “Islands of cold in a sea of milder times.” We note ensemble guidance is particularly bullish on a spring-like pattern taking foot as we close February and open March. Far too early for details, but we may need to watch for the potential of an active severe weather setup during this time period, as well.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/17/islands-of-cold-in-a-sea-of-milder-times/
Feb 16
Updated 02.16.24 @ 12:14p Snow will continue to overspread the remainder of central Indiana through the afternoon and fall moderately at times. Localized banding should develop this afternoon and these…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/lunchtime-rambles-snow-becomes-more-widespread-and-thoughts-on-next-week/
Feb 16
Updated 02.16.24 @ 6:40a
A widespread accumulating snow event will get underway over the coming few hours across all of central IN. At times, localized moderate to heavy snow intensity is anticipated this afternoon before diminishing this evening. A brief, but bitter jab of arctic air will flow into the region tonight and Saturday, including wind chill values that fall into the single digits. Sunshine returns over the weekend.
Snowfall forecast- most of which will accumulate on grassy and elevated surfaces. Slushy pavement conditions will develop during times of more intense snow this afternoon. Salting and plowing will be required throughout most of central IN today.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/16/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-and-becomes-moderate-heavy-at-times-bitter-open-to-the-weekend-gives-way-to-a-milder-week-ahead/
Feb 15
Updated 02.15.24 @ 9:42p
Evening update: Looks like we’ll need to “beef” totals up a bit tmrw. We’ll watch overnight guidance but wouldn’t be surprised if we need to build in banding potential that may generate local 3”-4” amounts by Friday evening with tomorrow morning’s update.
A fast moving band of light rain will scoot across central IN mid-morning, but the bigger deal today will be the strong and gusty winds. Gusts upwards of 40 MPH can be expected at times. Hold onto your hats! Attention then will quickly shift to an area of light snow that will overspread the region Friday morning. While the unseasonably mild surface temperatures of late will prevent some of this snow from accumulating, a general 0.50″ to 2″ area-wide snow is expected.
More on the snow, a brief “jab” of arctic air and a look into the updated long range guidance in this morning’s Client video below:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/15/video-snow-overspreads-the-region-friday-fresh-medium-long-range-thoughts/
Feb 14
Updated 02.14.24 @ 7:51a Plentiful sunshine will be with us as we move through our Valentine’s Day along with unseasonably mild temperatures. A brief “jab” of arctic air will be…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/14/video-valentine-sunshine-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-and-snow-to-close-the-week/
Feb 13
Updated 02.13.24 @ 5:32a Quiet weather will be with us as we move through the next couple of days before a fast moving and weak disturbance delivers a few showers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2024/02/13/video-keeping-an-eye-on-friday-brief-jab-of-arctic-air-to-follow/