Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…

Screen Shot 2016-01-30 at 9.32.06 AMHighlights:

  • Active period of weather ahead
  • Spring-like now turns much colder
  • Storms in between
  • Snowy February ahead?

Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…A quick scan over the 7-day above shows the busy times that lie ahead.  Our suggestion to you?  Enjoy today’s sunshine and early taste of spring!  Let us worry about what lies ahead.  You’re welcome!  😉

We’ll add some mid and high level cloudiness into the picture later today and those clouds will lower and thicken tonight.  Tomorrow, though still warm, won’t be as nice.  Look for cloudy skies, scattered showers, and breezy SW winds.

We’ll be in between systems Monday with a generally dry day and a bit cooler, though still above average for this time of year.

A strong area of low pressure will quickly move from the central Plains Monday night into the Great Lakes Tuesday night.  We’ll be on the warm side of this storm’s track and will note a dramatic shift in our wind to the SW early Tuesday that will help temperatures zoom into the lower 60s Tuesday.  The downside?  We’ll have to monitor things closely for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.

The area of low pressure will swing a cold front through here late Tuesday night and send temperatures into a free-fall for mid week.  We’ll have to watch things closely as we’ll be in an active NW flow heading into next weekend.  You know the drill by now- models struggle picking up pieces of energy plenty capable of producing accumulating snow from this distance with that potentially active NW flow.

Longer term, winter fans should really like what we’re seeing.  We’ll have a more extensive post on this later in the weekend, but the pattern shaping up is one that’ll feature the more sustained cold pattern (relative to normal) in the middle of the country through most of February, including the Ohio Valley.  A busy interior storm track is also noted in the coming weeks.  Far too early for specifics, but it’s a pattern plenty capable of leading to above normal monthly snowfall in our neck of the woods.  Again, more later!

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Morning Ensemble Disco.

*Part of what we send our clients is a daily (two times/ day during active periods) ensemble discussion.  Here’s an excerpt of this morning’s discussion that went out earlier.  By the way, if you’re interested in joining our weather consulting services, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for more details.

…We note some significant differences in our morning ensemble data that’s creating some doubt in terms of the longevity of the coming cold.  We still feel the heart of the cold is in the Mid West and Ohio Valley with this early February surge.  The EC is likely a battle zone, at least initially.

EuroFeb5th

GEFSFeb5thThe European is much more progressive in breaking down the cold across the central and east, while the GFS ensembles look much more realistic to us.  Why?  The GoA trough placement.  The EPS is likely “dragging its heels” across the southwest with the southern energy and in return deepens the trough too much across the four corners region.

We see the GEFS going to a significant cold period in the 10-14 day period, centered over the mid section into the Ohio Valley.  This is also during the time frame we think the first of two winter events impacts the Ohio Valley.

gfs-ens_T2ma5d_us_10We’ll issue an afternoon ensemble discussion after having an opportunity to digest 12z data.  Look for it in your inbox by 6p.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/morning-ensemble-disco/

Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…

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Wednesday Morning Rambles…

January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal.       After several relatively “boring” days, much more…

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Evening Showers; Relatively Quiet Week…

Screen Shot 2016-01-25 at 7.43.54 AMHighlights:

  • Evening light rain
  • Clipper watch
  • Mild weekend ahead

Evening Showers…A weak cold front will press through central IN tonight.  Moisture return isn’t impressive with this system, but light showers will scoot through the area this evening.  Rainfall amounts won’t add up to much.

A few flurries may fly Tuesday morning as cold air moves back into the area.  Temperatures during the day time Tuesday will be below freezing for the most part after a predawn high.

Forecast models still disagree with the overall track of a clipper system Thursday.  The GFS and European models don’t suggest we deal with any snow, whatsoever.  Meanwhile, the Canadian model remains consistent on Thursday snow showers.  Either way, this shouldn’t be a big deal.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

The weekend will shift unseasonably mild as we get into a strong SW flow.  We’ll eye a developing strong storm across the Plains early next week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-showers-relatively-quiet-week/