Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Wintry Feel Is Here…Hard to believe it’s only the middle of November with such an extended stretch of cold air.  It’s not just the cold in terms of the absolutes, but the prolonged nature of the frigid early season wintry air that’s truly impressive.  In any event, Thursday will feature the threat of a few snow flurries as reinforcing cold air blows into town.  This will set the stage for a dry, but very cold close to the work week.

Complex Weekend…A complicated weather situation will unfold over the weekend that will provide at least two chances of accumulating snow across portions of the region.  Let’s sort through the details:

After a dry daytime Saturday, a weak area of low pressure will scoot east across the central Plains states towards the Ohio Valley region.  This will help spread an area of light snow across the state late Saturday night into the daytime Sunday.  Light is the key word here and for the most part accumulations with this first system should be around 1″.

The second (more questionable) piece to the potentially snowy puzzle arrives on the scene Sunday afternoon into Monday morning.  A vigorous upper level disturbance will round the base of a trough across the southern Plains and help ignite surface low pressure across the southern Mississippi Valley region that will track northeast.

This evening’s computer models are at odds with one another in regards to how far north the deep moisture makes it.  If you take the more aggressive (snowier) solution, we’re looking at another round of accumulating snow Sunday PM.  However, it’s important to also note the colder and more suppressed modeling as well.  In fact, some data doesn’t even bring a flake of snow into the area Sunday evening.  Gut feeling here is that the snowier solution may be the better way to lean, but time will tell (it’s never a bad thing to be on the northwest flank of precipitation with a wintry event still several days out).

For now, we’ll go with more of a blend and suggest additional light snowfall Sunday night into Monday morning.  Note this is a low confidence forecast as of now and will require fine tuning as we move forward over the next day or two.

Bitter Air…Regardless of whether or not we see additional accumulating snow Sunday night, bitterly cold air will flow into the region to open the new work week.  Lower teens are in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday morning.  Brrrr…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast: 

• 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.00″
• 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 1″ – 3″

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