Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
*Part of what we send our clients is a daily (two times/ day during active periods) ensemble discussion. Here’s an excerpt of this morning’s discussion that went out earlier. By the way, if you’re interested in joining our weather consulting services, please e-mail bill@indywx.com for more details.
…We note some significant differences in our morning ensemble data that’s creating some doubt in terms of the longevity of the coming cold. We still feel the heart of the cold is in the Mid West and Ohio Valley with this early February surge. The EC is likely a battle zone, at least initially.
The European is much more progressive in breaking down the cold across the central and east, while the GFS ensembles look much more realistic to us. Why? The GoA trough placement. The EPS is likely “dragging its heels” across the southwest with the southern energy and in return deepens the trough too much across the four corners region.
We see the GEFS going to a significant cold period in the 10-14 day period, centered over the mid section into the Ohio Valley. This is also during the time frame we think the first of two winter events impacts the Ohio Valley.
We’ll issue an afternoon ensemble discussion after having an opportunity to digest 12z data. Look for it in your inbox by 6p.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/morning-ensemble-disco/
-
Filed under Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
-
January 27, 2016
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quick-wednesday-evening-video-update-3/
-
Filed under Arctic Cold, Blizzard, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles
-
January 27, 2016
January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal. After several relatively “boring” days, much more…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wednesday-morning-rambles-6/
Highlights:
- Evening light rain
- Clipper watch
- Mild weekend ahead
Evening Showers…A weak cold front will press through central IN tonight. Moisture return isn’t impressive with this system, but light showers will scoot through the area this evening. Rainfall amounts won’t add up to much.
A few flurries may fly Tuesday morning as cold air moves back into the area. Temperatures during the day time Tuesday will be below freezing for the most part after a predawn high.
Forecast models still disagree with the overall track of a clipper system Thursday. The GFS and European models don’t suggest we deal with any snow, whatsoever. Meanwhile, the Canadian model remains consistent on Thursday snow showers. Either way, this shouldn’t be a big deal. We’ll keep an eye on things.
The weekend will shift unseasonably mild as we get into a strong SW flow. We’ll eye a developing strong storm across the Plains early next week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/evening-showers-relatively-quiet-week/
A severe winter storm will track from the southeast today to the Mid Atlantic coast Saturday. Crippling snow will fall from the southern Appalachians northeast (the final product will be…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/major-winter-storm-southeast-to-the-mid-atlantic/
