Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Nov 12

Tracking A Couple Of Cold Fronts This Week…

Highlights:

  • Calm open to the work week
  • Two cold fronts impact the region
  • Much colder air blows in this weekend

Calm Open; Busy Close…The work week will open with weak high pressure in control of our weather.  This will result in sunshine returning along with unseasonably chilly conditions (average highs are in the mid 50s this time of year).

The first of two cold fronts will push through the state Wednesday.  Clouds will increase Tuesday evening and showers will blow into town Wednesday morning.  Breezy and chilly conditions will go along with the damp weather.

A second (stronger) cold front will impact the area to close the work week.  Strengthening low pressure will move through the Great Lakes Friday evening and help pull a briefly warmer air mass into the state.  Showers and thunderstorms will be widespread ahead of the approaching cold front and a few of these could be strong to severe.  We’ll keep a close eye on things over the next couple of days and update accordingly.  Strong and gusty southwesterly winds will reach 40 MPH+ before shifting around to the northwest once the trailing cold front sweeps through the region.  This will drive a sharply colder air mass southeast and the potential is there for lingering moisture to end as a touch of wet snow late Friday night.  The weekend will feature dry, windy, and unseasonably cold conditions.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-a-couple-of-cold-fronts-this-week/

Nov 11

Unseasonably Cold; Weekend Ends Messy…

Highlights:

  • Filtered sunshine today
  • Raw and messy Sunday
  • Fast-moving weather pattern next week

Bundle Up…Wake up temperatures are more like we’d expect in late December as opposed to early November, including lower to middle 20s across central Indiana.  Filtered sunshine will eventually give way to a thickening cloud deck late.  Those clouds will be a harbinger of things to come as moisture overspreads the region Sunday morning.  Look for a cold, raw close to the weekend with periods of light rain (sleet may mix in with the rain during the onset early Sunday, but this won’t be a big deal).

We’ll open up the work week with dry and chilly conditions before a couple of fast-moving systems impact our mid and late week weather.  Clouds will increase Tuesday and showers will arrive at night, continuing into Wednesday.  Our next (stronger) storm will arrive to wrap up the work week.  A southwesterly air flow will inject briefly milder air Friday morning and may be sufficient enough to create a couple of thunderstorms.  We’ll then transition to a much colder, windy regime to wrap up Friday with falling temperatures.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/unseasonably-cold-weekend-ends-messy/

Nov 10

VIDEO: A Cold Weekend Is On Tap; Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-a-cold-weekend-is-on-tap-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving-week/

Nov 09

“Block Ready To Rock?” Cold Pattern Developing Around Thanksgiving…

Model data continues to suggest a Greenland block will develop as we progress into late-November.  This kind of pattern creates a “log jam” of sorts in the weather pattern and is the type pattern notorious for unseasonably cold regimes across our region.  The overall agreement between various models raises our confidence in this pattern unfolding as Thanksgiving nears.

Such a pattern illustrated above, per the European ensemble (image 1) and the GFS ensemble (image 2), would help drill a tongue of unseasonably cold air through the northern Plains, into the Mid West, and across the East.

A look at the 00z teleconnections this morning shows 3/4 “big boy” drivers going to that cold look for late-November, as well:

We’ve been discussing early snow cover across Canada and the northern tier for weeks and how models would have to “correct” colder as they realize the air masses traveling over the snowpack won’t be able to modify as they normally would without that snowpack.  The differences between this November and last are startling and show how the early snowpack is beginning to “feedback” on itself leading to early-season cold air.

2016 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:

2017 snowpack and temperatures anomalies through the first week of November:

Given the overall look to the pattern downstream, I anticipate the cold will continue to “press” and eventually overwhelm the pattern east as we progress through the second half of the month.

To close, we expect a developing Greenland Block to help drive an unseasonably cold late-November, including the Thanksgiving holiday.  This is the type pattern that can also help generate early season wintry “fun and games,” however it’s far too early to be specific with any sorts of potential wintry events that may eventually come in this pattern.  Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/block-ready-to-rock-cold-pattern-developing-around-thanksgiving/

Nov 08

VIDEO: Coldest Air Of The Season And Looking Ahead To Thanksgiving…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-coldest-air-of-the-season-and-looking-ahead-to-thanksgiving/