Cold Close To The Week; Snowy Pattern Ahead…
Arctic air is pressing into the state this evening. As we type this (just after 6p), wind chill values are already plummeting into the single digits across central Indiana. Those values will turn even more frigid overnight- dropping to below zero towards midnight. This is “number-busting” cold as many central Indiana communities will wake up Friday to the single digits (it was only this morning when the majority of model data suggested lower teens). Obviously, wind chill values will be flat-out bitter, as shown below:
Arctic high pressure will result in a cold, but dry (and sunny) close to the work week.
As we move into the weekend, our weather will begin to turn more active. This will be the first of a series of snow systems over the upcoming 7-10 days. While this initial event won’t be significant, it’ll get the ball rolling on (at least what we believe will be) another extended stretch of wintry conditions. We forecast a couple periods of light snow (“light” being the key word) this weekend: Saturday evening and again Sunday evening. It appears as if the energy will remain very disorganized over the weekend and the result will be light snow accumulations during the Saturday through Sunday period.
Again, this is only the beginning of a very active pattern; one that will shoot snow systems at us in an “every other day” fashion over the upcoming 7-10 days. We’ll keep close tabs on last minute adjustments that may be needed with such a pattern. Often times modeling will struggle with the fast-paced northwest flow and models will have to “correct” last minute towards a more significant event.
Our next snow maker approaches Monday evening into Tuesday. This would seem to be a more important event and one capable of depositing heavier snow across the general region. We’ll monitor things this weekend, but the pattern is such that this looks to be more of a central or northern Ohio Valley hit. Solutions painted of suppression look suspect to us from this distance given the look.
Additional opportunities for accumulating snow lie ahead, including:
- Thursday night – Friday
- Next Saturday – Sunday
This is all part of the equation we’ve had in thinking that the big story, at least initially, is a very active pattern (snowier version of what we dealt with late December through mid January) before the truly severe cold can get involved mid-and-late February. On that note, the pattern, as a whole, looks much colder than normal from late February into March this year, as well.
As for snow, the majority of these events will produce light to moderate amounts, but the active nature of the flow will likely allow things to stack up. We have no changes to our thinking that the period Feb. 1st through March 6th yields between 15″ and 20″ of snow at IND. Let’s just remain on guard for the potential of one or two of these systems to potentially lead to heavier totals along the way.
Make it a great evening!
The GEFS might be a bit quick on dropping the arctic hammer, but the consistency of the model is impressive. Meanwhile, the European (even it’s ensemble data) has been much less consistent and has really been struggling the past couple of winters, overall, as a whole.
Let’s also keep in mind that the initial cold onslaught is coming in the face of the MJO still rumbling through the warm phases. We note the European is consistently having to correct towards a more “amped up” MJO- swinging into the cold phases as we approach mid-month. And it’s mid-February that continues to have us concerned for the potential of truly nasty, severe cold.
As for snow, it’ll come in this pattern. Again, don’t get caught up in the operational output, but understand that the pattern over the upcoming 7-10 days favors numerous fast-moving snow systems. While most of these will be light, we’ll have to keep a close eye on things as the potential exists for one of these waves to spin up a moderate event.
Cold high pressure will settle overhead Tuesday and Wednesday and supply a return of dry times, complete with sunshine. We’ll turn breezy in advance of our next storm system Wednesday.
That next system will come in the form of a cold front that will settle south across the state Thursday. Light rain will overspread the region early in the day before mixing with and ending as light snow. This still doesn’t appear to be a significant event for our region at this time.
What may be a bigger deal is the event that looms this weekend. Clouds will increase during the day Saturday and a light mix of rain and snow should develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning before colder air wins out changing all precipitation over to snow.
We’re getting into a pattern where the northern stream of the jet will dominate over the next 7-10 days (at least). Models will likely struggle handling individual systems and we’ll have to remain on our toes for the potential of last minute shifts with systems in such a pattern.