Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Saturday Morning Rambles: Unsettled Weekend And Looking Ahead…

It was a tale of two worlds across the state on Friday.  Despite a couple of non-severe, gusty showers that impacted western portions of the state Friday evening, the majority of the “excitement” took place in the eastern half of the state.  Multiple large hail, wind, and tornado reports were included along with heavy rain.  When we look at storm total rainfall through 8a today, we note widespread 2″ to 3″ amounts across eastern Indiana.  Muncie recorded amounts in excess of 3″!

As we look ahead, our weekend weather will continue to be dominated by a “cut off” area of low pressure.  As it meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will remain.  Aerial coverage of rain will reach greatest heights during the afternoon and evening hours today and Sunday.  With the colder air aloft, don’t be surprised if a few of the stronger showers produce hail.

Additionally, highs today will run close to 10° below the average high of the mid-80s.

As we open up the new week, showers and embedded thunder will also be around Sunday before the upper low begins to lose it’s influence on the region.  We’ll maintain shower chances into the new work week, but overall coverage should be diminished Monday.

Shower and embedded thunder chances remain Sunday. Image courtesy of weathermodels.com.

A couple of cold fronts will make a run at the Ohio Valley over the upcoming week.  The first will pass through during the midweek stretch, followed by a stronger frontal passage as we get ready to head into the weekend.  Each front will provide a shower/ thunderstorm threat.  A stronger push of pleasantly refreshing air should arrive behind front number 2 as we head into next weekend.

On the temperature note, models continue to show a cooler than average pattern as we open August.

Longer term, the NEW JMA Weeklies suggest the worst of the summer heat is now behind us as they keeps the Weeks 3-4 time period unseasonably refreshing…

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VIDEO: All Eyes On Friday; Unsettled Weekend Follows…

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VIDEO: Active And Unseasonably Cool Times Await…

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VIDEO: Less Humid Midweek; Unsettled Weather Returns This Weekend…

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Medium Range Notes: Cooler, More Active Times Dominate…

As part of some exciting and significant enhancements that we’re looking forward to announcing later this fall, we’re going to be including more content that’s typically only been going out to private clients.  Some of that content includes our ‘medium range notes’ that go out each evening, included in the sample below.

As we look at the medium range period, or the 6-10 day time frame, the pattern flip to a cooler and more active regime is clear.  Both the respective GFS and European ensemble members (below) see the significant changes that will be with us as we put a wrap on July and look ahead to welcoming August.  Note the upper ridge retrograding west.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Not only will this help drive a significantly cooler pattern, but a wetter one to boot.  We note data reflecting wetter than average times returning for the upper Mid West, Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley during the upcoming 6-10 day period.  It appears as if much-needed moisture will be returning to central Indiana.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Also note the dramatic flip to cooler times.

Image source: Tropicaltidbits.com

Storms Of Significance:

Of note during the period, we’re targeting a storm system that will likely deliver unsettled weather to central Indiana over the upcoming weekend, continuing into the Days 6-7 time period.  This is followed by another storm system that will deliver unsettled conditions Days 9-10, including reinforcing cooler than average temperatures.

As always, IndyWx.com features daily blog and video updates that include details around the short-term period.

Forecaster: BM

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