Category Archives: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Briefly Milder Ahead Of Next Cold Stretch; Late Week Snow Makers…

After a cold stretch (8 of the past 12 days have been below average here across central Indiana), we’ll be on the milder side of a storm for a change tonight into Wednesday.

This will not only lead to a briefly milder period (and by brief, we mean BRIEF) late tonight into early Wednesday, but will also deliver a round of rain.  While we’ll rise into the 30s later this evening, temperatures will continue to rise during the overnight- potentially into the lower 40s ahead of the cold front.  Drizzle (perhaps freezing drizzle at the onset) will move in later this evening, but the heavier rain will hold off until after midnight.  Periods of moderate rain can be expected between 2a and 8a Wednesday.

Widespread 0.50″ to 0.75″ can be expected across central Indiana.

The cold front will sweep through the state during the day Wednesday and temperatures will begin to fall once again Wednesday afternoon.  A brief period of light snow is possible as the precipitation shield departs Wednesday afternoon, but this isn’t expected to be a big deal.  We should be back below freezing around 5p to 6p Wednesday.

From there, the pattern will remain active and quite wintry.  We’re tracking (3) individual pieces of upper level energy that will likely be enough to generate at least light snow into the weekend.  The initial disturbance is associated with an arctic front that will blow through town Thursday evening.  These are notorious for igniting snow showers and heavier “bursts.”  You’ll certainly notice an increasingly bitter feel Thursday PM.

A couple additional disturbances are likely ahead of a reinforcing plunge of arctic air early next week.  The system Saturday evening into early Sunday looks strongest at this time and will be capable of depositing a more widespread light accumulating snow across the region.

Yet another arctic intrusion is set to invade before we put a wrap on January.  This will likely also be accompanied by additional opportunities of accumulating snow early next week.

No Comments Arctic Cold, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Rain, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Blizzard-Like Conditions Develop This Afternoon Into Tonight…

While warm air advection (WAA) created an added challenge this morning (freezing rain north of the city, itself, and rain south of I-70), colder air is working south late this morning and will result in a changeover from freezing rain/ rain to snow over the next couple hours from north to south.

We expect the transition to snow to take place in and around Indianapolis between 1p and 2p.

As upper level energy tracks northeast this evening, strong frontogenesis will help a “deformation band” expand in coverage and intensify across the state.  This will lead to elevated snowfall intensity as the afternoon gives way to evening.  In fact, snowfall rates will likely approach 1″/ hour across central and eastern portions of the state at times during the mid-to-late afternoon and into the evening hours.

8p forecast radar.

As this is taking shape, winds will also begin to crank this afternoon and evening.  Gusts in excess of 50 MPH are expected across central and eastern regions- including Indianapolis.

Obviously this will create concerns for power outages, but the other major worry is for developing blizzard-like conditions and whiteouts through the late afternoon into tonight.

As for snowfall totals, the consensus of latest 12z data continues to support our updated snowfall forecast from this morning.

We’ll have additional updates later this afternoon here on IndyWx.com and on our social media accounts.

To close, we highly encourage not traveling this afternoon.  Conditions are expected to rapidly deteriorate as we move through the next several hours. For many across central and east-central Indiana, roads will likely become impassable by evening with the combination of severe wind gusts and increasing snowfall rates.  Major problems from blowing and drifting snow are expected.

More here in a bit!  Stay safe!

No Comments Blizzard, Blowing/ Drifting, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Fog, Rain, Severe Weather, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm

Late Friday Night Update…

A significant winter storm is on our doorstep and will begin to impact all of the region in the coming hours.  Low pressure will continue to deepen as it moves northeast out of Oklahoma, Arkansas, and into Kentucky.  As this takes place, copious amounts of moisture will lift north into central Indiana.  We think precipitation reaches Indianapolis, itself, during the overnight (likely between 3a and 4a).

The bulk of the northern half of the state is still expected to receive predominantly snow with this storm.  However, things get much more tricky along the I-70 corridor (10 to 20 miles either side) as temperatures will be “marginal” early on in the event (aloft and at the surface) and will lead to quite the headache for the first several hours of this storm.  Even as of this update, confidence is low on precipitation type for the I-70 corridor, itself.  A difference of half a degree (F) can mean a world of difference with precipitation type (snow, freezing rain, sleet, or rain).  Admittedly, concern is growing for the potential of icing in this area before the deeper cold air can arrive and switch things over to snow.  On the other hand, should precipitation rates be heavy enough, it’s certainly possible these heavier rates will cool the entire column of air quicker than high resolution modeling currently suggests and a quicker transition to snow would result.  “Boom or bust” potential is higher than normal along the immediate I-70 corridor.

Given the above, and the potential of a “deformation band” of snow to develop during the 2nd half of the storm, our forecast snowfall totals remain unchanged.

Stay tuned and please know we’ll have another update posted Saturday morning.

The other big concern here is the fact that east-northeast winds will turn increasingly strong and gusty as the day gives way to afternoon and evening.  Winds may gust as high as 40 to 50 MPH at times during this time period as the storm heads off to the northeast.  Even if you accumulate an inch of snow, expect blowing and drifting issues to result.  Combine that with rapidly falling temperatures Saturday evening and the stage will be set for slick and hazardous travel throughout the region.

Much more in a few hours around this storm and additional “fun and games” that await next week… (Please send coffee ;-)).

No Comments Arctic Cold, Blowing/ Drifting, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Freezing Rain, Rain, Sleet, snow, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy, Winter Storm, Wintry Mix