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Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/wet-close-to-2018-on-deck/
Dec 27
Tracking 2 Rain Events; Cold Open to 2019…
Highlights:
- Wet with a few t-storms
- Dry weekend
- Wet then cold to open 2019
Rain Gear Needed…The pattern is transitioning from the predominantly mild stretch of the past couple weeks to one that will turn much colder as we move into January. In between? Active times, as we’re tracking two big storm systems between now and NYE.
The initial push of moisture has reached the I-65 corridor as of this forecast issuance early Thursday morning. Periods of rain will continue through a good chunk of the day and we may even throw in some thunder into the mix later this evening- especially across southern portions of the state. The other big story today? Strong and gusty southerly winds.
Rain will end later tonight with dry, blustery, and colder times returning as we close the week. Highs tomorrow will come predawn before falling through the day. Dry and seasonable times will continue as we move through the last weekend of 2018.
A new storm system promises a return of wet times as we get set to ring in the new year. Definitely plan on having the rain gear handy as you head out to those New Year’s Eve parties Monday. Heavy rain is possible at times. As the area of low pressure tracks northeast, it’ll swing a cold front through here Monday night and we’ll turn sharply colder with snow showers on New Year’s Day, itself.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/tracking-2-rain-events-cold-open-to-2019/
Dec 26
Rain Arrives Tomorrow…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/rain-arrives-tomorrow/
Dec 25
Looking at the Holiday Week and Ahead to January…
Tomorrow will be a rather uneventful weather day across central Indiana, but things will begin to change as we head into Thursday.
An area of low pressure will track out of the central Plains into the Great Lakes by Friday. The end result will be increasing coverage of showers Thursday afternoon and perhaps even a rumble of thunder Thursday evening.
Most of the concentrated rain should come to an end around dark Thursday. By that time we forecast a general 1/2″ to 1″ to fall in area rain gauges.
More seasonable air will blow in here behind the storm system and we’ll have to keep an eye on energy “attacking” from behind over the weekend. With colder weather in place, snow is possible next weekend.
Looking ahead, a combination of ingredients appears to be coming together to create a rather significant transition in the pattern as we head into January. Note the developing positive PNA…
This will result in more sustained below normal temperatures making a return early January to our neck of the woods…
Additionally, it also appears an active storm track will continue. While impossible to say this far in advance, prospects for above average snowfall (average is 8.6″) appear likely through the month of January.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/looking-at-the-holiday-week-and-ahead-to-january/
Dec 22
Pre-Christmas Weather Rambles…
I. While we certainly aren’t talking about significant weather events between now and Christmas Day, there will be a couple of impulses of upper level energy that may be just strong enough to produce snow showers and flurries at times. We’re tracking (2) weak disturbances that stand a chance to get a couple of snow showers going Sunday evening and again Christmas Day. The one on Christmas, itself, will be a bit stronger and may have a shield of more organized precipitation- likely that would start as wet snow before transitioning to rain before ending.
II. A much stronger storm system will wrap up to our northwest Wednesday night and Thursday. We’ll notice an increasingly strong southerly breeze during this time period and rain will be on the increase as we progress through the day Thursday. The trade-off? Highs between 55° and 60° to close the week- though those temperatures may actually come Thursday evening before cooler air begins to slip in here during the day Friday.
As things stand now, both the GFS and European models, courtesy of Weathermodels.com, aren’t overly excited on rainfall amounts with this storm system, but I think they’ll trend wetter as time goes on. We’ll continue to forecast amounts between 0.50″ and 1″.
III. All attention is squarely focused on a significant pattern change that takes shape as we head into the new year. As mentioned in previous posts and discussions, the transition is likely to be a stormy one, but it’s far too early to talk precipitation types. A combination of ingredients appears to be aligning to create a colder than normal (and potentially significantly so) pattern at the traditionally coldest time of year (mid-Jan).
In the more immediate term, we note the latest GEFS showcases a classic “horse shoe” block that will favor a wintry regime across the east to open the new year- thanks to Tropicaltidbits.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/pre-christmas-weather-rambles/