Category Archives: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Interesting Test Case In Front Of Us: Euro Vs. Everyone Else…

As we look ahead to late September, there’s a battle beginning to take place in model land. When we pull back the curtain, we note the GEFS and EPS handle the evolution of the EPO in two totally different manners in the Week 2 time period.

The GEFS begins to tank the EPO, suggesting cooler times are ahead to close September.
The EPS maintains a positive EPO and associated much warmer pattern to close September.

Our stand on the evolution of the pattern remains unchanged: that much cooler times will return as we get set to wrap up the month and head into early October. Updated data, aside from the European, suggests we’re on the right track with that train of thought.

JMA Weeklies- Week 2

CFSv2- Week 2

GEFS- Week 2

No Comments Autumn, CFSv2, Client, EPO, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, JMA, Long Range Discussion, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm

Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…

After an unseasonably cool weekend, significant late season heat will return next week.

Note the ridge expand over the eastern portion of the country next week.

To no surprise, the EPO pops positive and this really helps drive the warm mid-September pattern.

Positive EPOs in September favor warmth from the OHV, Mid Atl and into the Northeast.

The question then becomes “how long does the late season heat last?” As the EPO trends negative, cooler times would be favored as we move into late September. We’ll keep a close eye on things.

For now, those not ready to say goodbye to summer will be in luck next week with highs around 90 and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s…

A few opportunities (today and Sunday) for showers can be expected over the next few days, but these won’t amount to much and some may not see any rain of significance. Better rain and storm chances will return the middle of next week.

No Comments CFSv2, Client, EPO, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm