Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Nov 05

Saturday Morning Rambles: Wind The Big Story Today; Warmth On Borrowed Time…

Updated 11.05.22 @ 9:22a

I. Showers will scoot east of the region by late morning but we’re not done with the rain just yet. A skinny line of storms will likely blow across the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.

3p forecast radar

The other big story today will, of course, be the wind, including wind gusts around of 50-60 MPH. Strongest winds will come between 12p and 5p before diminishing this evening. Needless to say, batten down the hatches!

II. High pressure will supply an extended period of quiet weather through the bulk of the week ahead but there are changes on the horizon.

Our next cold front will blow into town Thursday night or Friday morning. As of now, it looks like it’ll be moisture starved but unlike this current system, the air behind the frontal passage will be drastically colder. How do highs in the lower 40s and lows in the lower 20s sound next weekend?

III. Next week’s front will be a “game changer” in that it will likely be the first attempt at bringing a more sustained colder pattern east. Note the latest European ensemble guidance below for the 10-15 day period. Needless to say, warmth is, indeed, on borrowed time…


Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/saturday-morning-rambles-wind-the-big-story-today-warmth-on-borrowed-time/

Nov 03

LR Update: Alignment For A Wintry Stretch Through The Holiday Season?

Updated 11.03.22 @ 9:43

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-alignment-for-a-wintry-stretch-through-the-holiday-season/

Oct 25

The Expected November Transition…

Updated 10.25.22 @ 5:08p

(A friendly reminder that our annual Winter Outlook will be posted Friday morning).

When we look at our top 2 analog years (’75-’76 and ’00-’01), we note a couple of common themes in November: cooler than normal anomalies were favored across the West while the East was favored warmer than normal. Note the temperature scale differences at the key on the bottom of both images.

Another common theme in these Novembers? Cold started bleeding east mid and late month, which eventually set up cold, wintry Decembers and a fast start to winter across the Mid West, Great Lakes, and East.

The new European Weeklies hold the ridge east through the 1st half of November. Given the EPO, PNA, and MJO (not to mention analogs above), there’s no reason to disagree with this. In fact, early November will likely still include some 70° days, if not flirt with 75°+.

November: Week 1
November: Week 2

Notice what transpires as we rumble into late November and early December: A totally different look at 500mb as a trough begins to form in the exact same place the persistent ridge will reside to open the month. Winter enthusiasts have to also love the look of high latitude blocking.


Wholesale pattern “transitions” can be finicking and will require close attention as we get to mid month and closer to Thanksgiving. From this distance, there’s no reason not to think our longstanding idea of a mid month colder shift has merit. Then, it’ll be time to understand how the vastly different sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTs) may impact the December and quick start to winter idea.

More on this and the winter as a whole Friday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/the-expected-november-transition/

Oct 20

LR Update: Late October Into Mid November Pattern Progression…

Updated 10.20.22 @ 5:48p

It’s been a chilly October. Officially, IND is running more than 4° below average month-to-date. It’s also been dry. We’re running close to 2″ below normal in the rainfall department.

When we look at the pattern drivers, it’s hard to see a way for there to be any sort of prolonged chill (compared to normal) over the next couple of weeks. That’s not to say there won’t be “pops” of cooler air here and there, but given the EPO and PNA state below, the upper pattern should favor more persistent ridging across the eastern portion of the country as opposed to the troughiness of late.

The MJO (likely a major driver this upcoming winter) is forecast to move out of Phase 6 into Phase 7 late October.

Phase 7 favors a western trough and associated cooler temperatures compared to average across the western portion of the country.

To no surprise, modeling sees the ‘mean’ trough and ridge placement in exact positions that we’d expect given the primary pattern drivers laid out above.

Week 1 500mb

Week 2 500mb

It’s also a continued overall drier than normal pattern, locally, over the next couple of weeks (in the face of a midweek storm system that should at least provide some unsettled weather the middle of next week- more on this in our short-term products).

As we look ahead towards November, there are potential changes with respect to the primary pattern drivers that could shift a colder regime back east. Note we think the month opens warmer than normal, but that things begin to take a turn towards the colder towards mid-month. Interestingly, the longer range teleconnection forecasts see the EPO heading negative by mid-Nov and the PNA heading neutral to positive. These are encouraging signs our idea is on the right path and perhaps that a colder pattern emerges during the lead-up to the holidays this year.

The NEW European Weeklies develop a 500mb look that features plenty of high latitude blocking by mid-November and should this be correct (we think it is), we should see the model trend colder across the East during this time period. Needless to say, this is the period we’ll continue to keep close tabs on…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/lr-update-late-october-into-mid-november-pattern-progression/

Oct 20

VIDEO: Gorgeous Weekend; Tracking A Cold Front In The New Week Ahead…

Updated 10.20.22 @ 7:38a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-weekend-tracking-a-cold-front-in-the-new-week-ahead/