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Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/28/video-quick-start-to-a-fall-like-feel-this-year/
Aug 27
Long Range Update: Meteorological Fall Opens On A Very Active Note…
Before we dive into our latest long range discussion, Laura continues to track north this morning through western Louisiana, and remains a category 2 as of the latest update (5a eastern time). Our thoughts and prayers are with all of those affected by Laura as they wake up this morning and begin to see the horror left behind from this beast of a storm.
Laura will take a hard “right” turn Friday and deliver gusty winds and heavy rain to the TN Valley and into the mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
We won’t deal with any impacts from Laura’s remnants up this far north, but we will increase coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity now through Saturday evening. This is thanks to a warm, sultry airmass in place along with an approaching cold front. As that boundary drives through the region Saturday evening, a much drier airmass will arrive for the 2nd half of the weekend.
Rainfall amounts between this afternoon through Saturday afternoon should top out between 0.50″ and 1″ for most, but there will be localized 1″ to 2″ totals in the heavier storms.
Friday will also pose a severe weather threat across the state, including the potential of damaging straight line winds as a couple “bowing” segments that move from the upper Midwest into the central Ohio Valley.
As we look ahead, we’re tracking 3 significant cold fronts between now and September 10th:
I. Aug. 29th
II. Sept. 3rd
III. Sept. 10th
Each of these cold fronts will be capable of producing strong storms and locally heavy rain, and behind each boundary, the air will grow cooler and cooler. While “transitional” warmth (relative to normal) is likely ahead of the boundaries, the first 1/3 of September should run cooler than normal across our region. Things also looks MUCH wetter than normal through the upcoming couple of weeks- a byproduct of the busy nature of the pattern.
Note how the latest JMA Weeklies are also similar handling the pattern (we’ll take the week-by-week snap shots into our video a bit later) over the upcoming 3-4 weeks:
One more item of note, the tropics aren’t done, unfortunately. There should be another hurricane threat in the medium to longer range period (early September) and early thoughts here include that threat centering more on the East Coast vs. the Gulf.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/27/long-range-update-meteorological-fall-opens-on-a-very-active-note/
Aug 26
Detailed Look At Laura And Early Thoughts On Labor Day Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/26/detailed-look-at-laura-and-early-thoughts-on-labor-day-weekend/
Aug 20
Long Range Update: Closing Out August And Welcoming In Meteorological Fall…
The upcoming couple of weeks will be dominated by the tropics grabbing the headlines, but our more immediate weather pattern will become interesting, as well.
In short, the medium to long range pattern will be controlled by the MJO. We think the upcoming 7 days will feature increased heat and humidity (more typical of late-August standards), but as the MJO rumbles into Phase 2, a period of cooler air will arrive around the last couple of days of the month, or first few days of September (subject to change by a day or two from this distance).
This supports the flip back to warmth next week and paves way for at least a transient period of cool next weekend or the following week:
Sure enough, that’s where the models are going over the next 2-3 weeks:
The early call on Labor Day weekend is for a cooler than normal feel.
The precipitation pattern favors a wet look with Phase 1 (closing August and opening September) followed by a shift east in the wettest anomalies in Phase 2 (early to mid September).
The European Weeklies show a similar look:
The wild card here has to do with how long we stay in Phase 2 (if we stay longer, cooler risks will present themselves for September) vs. going into the wheelhouse and allowing other drivers to take control. More on what lies ahead September, as a whole, in the coming days… One thing’s for sure and that’s the likelihood the tropics remain hyperactive into mid-September.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/20/long-range-update-closing-out-august-and-welcoming-in-meteorological-fall/
Aug 20
VIDEO: Humidity Increases This Weekend; Closely Watching The Gulf Into Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/20/video-humidity-increases-this-weekend-closely-watching-the-gulf-into-next-week/
Aug 18
Overachiever? Let’s Just Call It What It Was: A Bust. More On This And What Lies Ahead…
Officially, IND picked up 0.85″ of rain today, but there were locally heavier totals. Communities in the green accumulated between 1″ and 1.5″ of rain, including around Frankfort southeast to Noblesville, Anderson, and New Castle and a second axis of heavy rain from Beech Grove, Shelbyville, and Greensburg (most of which fell between midnight and noon).
This was at a time when even high resolution, short-term, guidance yesterday afternoon suggested the front would have been south of the region with drier air building in. The error, of course, was the modeled progression of the front and failure of guidance (even as of this time yesterday) picking up on upper level energy that helped generate the more widespread, heavier rainfall. Given the pattern and “noise” (conflicting signals) ahead over the upcoming 2-4 weeks, rest assured, we’ll be on our toes from here on out.
Despite this morning’s set back, high pressure is still going to build in and control our weather through late week. Expect dry conditions (for real this time ;-)), unseasonably refreshing air, and cooler than normal temperatures tomorrow and Thursday thanks to this area of high pressure.
Lows in the lower to middle 50s will be commonplace throughout central Indiana the next few mornings with even some outlying areas across north-central parts of the state dipping into the upper 40s.
As we flip the page towards Friday afternoon, moisture levels will begin to rise and widely scattered thunderstorms will return. Coverage should be greatest across southeast Indiana Friday. Aerial coverage of showers and storms will increase each day through the weekend as another frontal boundary moves through the region. This should produce 0.50″ to 1″ of rainfall across central Indiana with locally heavier totals.
By the weekend, eyes will also begin to grow more focused on the front running tropical system that should be in the western Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico (more on this in the coming days, along with what’s behind).
From a temperature perspective, after the refreshing feel this week, more typical late-August temperatures will build in over the weekend and the majority of next week before late-month cooling takes place yet again.
More in the AM with our next client video update. Have a relaxing evening.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/18/overachiever-lets-just-call-it-what-it-was-a-bust-more-on-this-and-what-lies-ahead/
Aug 18
VIDEO: Heavy Rain Moves Out; Drier, Cooler Air Builds In…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/18/video-heavy-rain-moves-out-drier-cooler-air-builds-in/
Aug 17
VIDEO: Secondary Cold Front Scoots Through The Region This Evening…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/17/video-secondary-cold-front-scoots-through-the-region-this-evening/
Aug 16
VIDEO: Less Humid And Cooler Air Arrives; Reviewing New Seasonal Data For The Fall And Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/16/video-less-humid-and-cooler-air-arrives-reviewing-new-seasonal-data-for-the-fall-and-winter/
Aug 14
VIDEO: Weekend Discussion And Looking Through Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/08/14/video-weekend-discussion-and-looking-through-next-week/