Category: Unseasonably Cool Weather

Feb 02

Never Trust An Arctic Wave: Accumulating Snow Prospects Growing This Weekend…

Updated: 02.02.21 @ 6:15p

While we have a few flurries (thanks to a little help from Lake Michigan) flying this evening, the bulk of the upcoming 48 hours will be rather quiet across the region. The next item on the agenda will come in the form of a cold front Thursday afternoon. As of now we anticipate rain (perhaps a brief early mix, but this won’t be a big deal) to arrive into central Indiana between 11a-1p Thursday. Mostly light to, at times, moderate rain will continue into the evening hours before ending as a brief period of wet snow Thursday evening (again, little if any impacts are expected).

Rainfall totals between 0.25″ and 0.50″ can be expected Thursday PM with the passage of the cold front.

The relatively quiet regime should return Friday, but by this time all eyes will be focused on the 1st of (2) arctic frontal systems. The 1st of these arctic fronts will sweep through the state Saturday PM and early Sunday. As this takes place, an arctic wave is expected to form along the leading edge of the true arctic air Saturday evening. This should result in an expanding area of snow that originally develops in the central Plains Friday night/ Saturday morning before pushing east, northeast Saturday into Sunday. With the arctic air pouring into the region, this should be a high ratio type snow and blowing/ drifting issues will likely be more of a problem than with the majority of systems so far this season.

While this is all taking place, a secondary low pressure system should develop along the Carolina coast early Sunday morning and it’s this system that will likely become the primary “player on the field” late in the weekend or early next week. Before that though, the arctic wave will likely result in a stripe of accumulating snow from the central Plains into the Ohio Valley, including central Indiana (too early for specific amounts). This will lay the groundwork for the coldest air of the season early next week…

Snow removal clients, as well as those in the ag. industry should keep close tabs on the weekend forecast. While we’re not expecting a widespread heavy snow event, the combination of snow, wind, and eventual bitterly cold air will lead to significant impacts as we move forward.

I would plan on temperatures falling into the single digits below zero, along with wind chill values potentially approaching 20° below zero by early next week.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/02/never-trust-an-arctic-wave-accumulating-snow-prospects-growing-this-weekend/

Feb 02

VIDEO: Cold, Wintry Pattern Settling In…

Updated 02.02.21 @ 8:20a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/02/video-cold-wintry-pattern-settling-in/

Feb 01

02.01.21 Weather Bulletin: The Arctic Hounds Come Calling…

Updated 02.01.21 @ 6:34p

Bottom Drops Out Early Next Week…Brief high pressure will build overhead through the next 24 to 48 hours and supply a return of sunshine. We may still have a few light flurries around through the early afternoon Tuesday, but the story over the next couple of days will be improving weather, albeit still chilly.

Our next storm system will approach Wednesday night and Thursday in the form of a cold front. Precipitation should arrive Thursday morning as a cold rain (might start as a brief wintry mix, but this shouldn’t be a big deal). The cold front will then sweep through the state Friday morning. Highs will likely take place during the predawn hours with falling temperatures through the day. Any lingering morning precipitation should exit stage right relatively quickly.

Things become much more interesting over the weekend as a couple of arctic fronts sweep across the region. The first front will feature vigorous upper level energy and will likely result in a period of snow. The second front will really drop the “arctic hammer” and not only lead to the coldest air we’ve seen in quite some time, but a continuation of snow chances into early next week.

We’ll keep a close eye on the development of things for the weekend. With arctic air getting involved, it’ll likely maximize any available moisture and a couple of seemingly rather “harmless” snow events could turn into over-achievers as we grow closer. I’d keep close tabs on the weekend forecast.

Bitter air will pour into the region early next week, including dangerously cold wind chill values. Those with ag/ livestock interests should be prepared to make adjustments for the severe cold.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/01/02-01-21-weather-bulletin-the-arctic-hounds-come-calling/

Feb 01

VIDEO: Coldest Air Of The Season Awaits On Deck For A Late Weekend Arrival…

Updated 02.01.21 @ 8:06a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/02/01/video-coldest-air-of-the-season-awaits-on-deck-for-a-late-weekend-arrival/

Jan 31

VIDEO: Rain/ Mix Changes Back To Snow; Looking At A Busy Couple Weeks Ahead…

Updated 01.31.21 @ 11:00a

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/31/video-rain-mix-changes-back-to-snow-looking-at-a-busy-couple-weeks-ahead/

Jan 29

VIDEO: Heavy, Wet Snow Arrives Saturday Afternoon; Looking Into Early February…

Updated 01.29.21 @ 5:05p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/29/video-heavy-wet-snow-arrives-saturday-afternoon-looking-into-early-february/

Jan 28

VIDEO: Pattern Drivers Starting To Align To Deliver More Sustained Cold As We Get Deeper Into Feb?

Updated 01.28.21 @ 6:30p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/28/video-pattern-drivers-starting-to-align-to-deliver-more-sustained-cold-as-we-get-deeper-into-feb/

Jan 14

VIDEO: Short And Long Range Update As We Head Into (At Times) A Snowy Weekend And Get Set To Traverse The 2nd Half Of Jan/ Open Feb…

Updated 01.14.21 @ 6:52p

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/14/video-short-and-long-range-update-as-we-head-into-at-times-a-snowy-weekend-and-get-set-to-traverse-the-2nd-half-of-jan-open-feb/

Jan 07

Long Range Outlook: Pattern Drivers Over The Next Few Weeks…

We’ve opened the month of January on a very warm note, compared to normal. Through the first (6) days of the month, temperatures are running 6.3° above average.

Well above average temperatures have dominated the northern tier into the eastern 1/3 of the country to open the month.

Looking ahead, the basis of the forecast over the next 3-4 weeks will be built on favorable teleconnection phases (for cold) with the AO, NAO, and PNA, while the predominantly positive EPO keeps any sort of sustained/ significant cold hard to come by. This is a pattern that can turn quite active (and we think it will), but one that still doesn’t appear as if it’ll grow overly cold- compared to normal.

We continue to eye the MJO propagation. The latest European models keep things in the null phase, but the American products seemingly want to get things more amplified. For now we’re not biting, but if things did sneak into Phases 3-4 by late month, warmer times would follow.

Week 1

JMA Week 1- Upper air pattern
JMA Week 1- Temperature anomalies
JMA Week 1- Precipitation anomalies
European Ensemble Week 1- Upper air pattern
European Ensemble Week 1- Temperature anomalies
European Ensemble Week 1- Precipitation anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Upper air pattern
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Temperature anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 1- Precipitation anomalies

Week 2

JMA Week 2- Upper air pattern
JMA Week 2- Temperature anomalies
JMA Week 2- Precipitation anomalies
European Ensemble Week 2- Upper air pattern
European Ensemble Week 2- Temperature anomalies
European Ensemble Week 2- Precipitation anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Upper air pattern
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Temperature anomalies
GFS Ensemble Week 2- Precipitation anomalies

Through the first couple of weeks, modeling is in about as good of agreement as you could expect. After a period of quiet weather (immediate term), the pattern should turn much more active next week and the week thereafter, locally. While I don’t think cold overwhelms the pattern as much as the GFS ensemble is showing, I would go with more of a blend between that and the warmer JMA/ European.

Snow should also begin to get laid down across more of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. This is a stout look from the latest European and GFS ensemble means over the next 2 weeks (our daily videos and short-term products will handle this):

Thereafter, the weekly products take the pattern in two different directions and confidence is much lower late month and to open February. If the MJO remains a non-factor, colder solutions should carry the day. On the other hand, if the MJO does, indeed, roll into Phase 3/4, warmer times should follow in the Weeks 3-4 period. Stay tuned.

MJO Phases 3-4 in January
JMA Weeks 3-4- Upper air pattern (top); Temperature anomalies (bottom)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2021/01/07/long-range-outlook-pattern-drivers-over-the-next-few-weeks/

Dec 24

Long Range Update: Merry Christmas Eve From Our Home To Yours…

Right off the bat, the theme we want to drive home is that while active, the pattern ahead isn’t overly cold. Cold enough, at times, to create some wintry “fun and games?” Absolutely, but we’re not forecasting a widespread period of sustained cold over the next few weeks.

While the teleconnections favor durable cold from an AO/ NAO perspective…

…the EPO isn’t as favorable, and will likely present some warmer times in between the colder shots.

As it is, note how the blocking really matures from Week 1 to Week 2.

Week 1
Week 2

Undoubtedly this will force a stormy period into (at least) the first half of January. At times, initially, Great Lakes cutters are possible, but as we get closer to NYE and into the 1st week of January, itself, I think that’s the window that we really need to focus on for the potential of 1, if not 2, OHV winter storm threats.

The longer range, weekly models are trending in an interesting direction for the 1st full week of January, “marrying” the moisture with the cold, locally.

CFSv2

Precipitation
Temperatures

The JMA Weeklies are also intriguing from an upper air perspective (very similar to what the other ensemble data shows for the similar time frame).

While we’re not ready to unveil our January Outlook just yet (that will come next week), I think we’ll need to start keeping a closer eye on the MJO by the middle and latter part of the month. As things stand now, it appears we may sneak into Phase 2 to open the month (favors cold, locally) before potentially getting into a milder Phase 3 towards the end of the first week.

As things stand now, once the brief arctic intrusion gets out of here this weekend, temperatures will go into a “yo-yo” mode next week as (2) storm systems impact the area between Sunday and Wednesday. The date to keep a closer eye on for potential wintry impacts is more towards Jan. 2-4 time frame as the blocking gets into better position/ matures.

We’ll be back with a video update later today. Until then, Merry Christmas Eve from our family to yours.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/12/24/long-range-update-merry-christmas-eve-from-our-home-to-yours/

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