Category Archives: Tropics

Tropics Begin To Heat Up…

To no surprise as the traditional peak of the hurricane season approaches (September 10th), the tropics are beginning to turn more active.  In addition to Florence, new disturbed weather, currently in the Caribbean, may spin up on it’s journey northwest into the Gulf of Mexico early this week.

The tropical disturbance entering the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) early week will begin to find a more favorable upper level environment for further strengthening.  While we always have to be cautious with any sort of tropical entity in the Gulf of Mexico this time of year, the greatest immediate concern is for locally heavy rain along the northern Gulf Coast early and middle parts of the week.

Then attention will shift to the potential of remnant tropical moisture “curling” around the periphery of the eastern ridge during the latter half of the week.  While far too early to get specific, chances are there for elevated hefty rain chances for areas from the MS Valley into the Mid West as we get set to close the shortened work week and head into next weekend.

While the axis of heaviest rainfall will have to be fine tuned, confidence is high on unsettled times returning around these parts beginning Wednesday- thanks to the combination of an approaching cold front and remnant tropical moisture.

No Comments Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, Tropics

Light At The End Of The Tunnel From The Recent Dry Regime?

In our JMA Weekly recap from last week, we noted the model was transitioning towards a wetter pattern for early and mid June.

It’s encouraging to see the latest ensemble data from the American GFS and European (courtesy of TropicalTidbits.com) support this idea, as well.

In addition to a wetter pattern, we would also want to pay attention to the potential of a gusty storm complex or two riding southeast around the hot dome off to our southwest.

After an unusually dry May (- 3.44″ as of this post), Alberto’s remnant moisture will help us, at the very least, cut into the rainfall deficit tomorrow.  Longer term, it sure is nice to see the medium range guidance in agreement on a wetter time of things.  As we’re all aware, this is a crucial time to determine the overall long-standing summer pattern.  Dry ground and early warmth can easily “feedback” on itself, and it’s easy to understand some of the concern, particularly AG-related over the past few weeks.  With that said, it’s certainly not too late to try and at least ease some of the worry a bit.

When we look at the MJO, we note the amplitude and it’s forecast to swing through the wetter phases, at least locally, (4,5,6) through the month of June:

In closing, the JMA Weeklies led the charge in the idea of more active times returning in June, and the combination of GFS and European ensemble data suggests they had merit.  With the added bonus of having the MJO on our side, it’ll be hard to avoid a change of the guard towards an overall wetter pattern in the weeks ahead.  Perhaps Alberto’s remnant moisture is only the beginning…

No Comments AG Report, Ensemble Discussion, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Long Range Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics