Category Archives: Tropics

Midweek Storms; Still Eyeing Less Humid Conditions This Weekend…

Most of our Wednesday will be rain and storm free with a very warm and tropical feel. Don’t let this lull you in to letting your guard down as storms are expected to still erupt to our north late afternoon before rumbling south into central Indiana this evening.

The biggest concern with this storm complex will be centered on the threat of damaging straight line winds as embedded lines of storms may “bow out” on their journey south this evening. Additionally, large hail will also be possible with a few of the storms. As such, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to include the heart of the state (and the Ohio Valley for that matter) in a Slight Risk of severe weather today.

A good chunk of the region can expect 0.50″ to 1″ of rain this evening with locally heavier totals.

As we look ahead to the weekend, a front will sweep through the state and usher in a much less humid air mass Saturday night into early parts of next week. Sunday and Monday mornings should feature lows back into the upper 50s for most of central Indiana. Additionally, we’ll continue to keep close eyes on Tropical Storm Cristobal in the Gulf. There’s still the potential Cristobal’s remnant moisture will get entrained with an approaching cold front the middle to latter part of next week, leading to the threat of locally heavy rain across the MS Valley and parts of the Mid West and Ohio Valley. We’ll be able to become more specific as time draws closer.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Rain, Severe Weather, Tropics

Sticky Now; Big Changes Arrive By The Weekend…

A warm and humid airmass will remain intact through the next 72 hours. Little impulses of energy scooting across the area will be all that’s needed to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not all will see rain. Due to the moisture content, those that do find themselves under a shower or storm can expect locally heavy totals. Thursday will likely offer up the best chance of more widespread thunderstorm activity.

Friday will continue to offer up scattered showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Once this front slides south, MUCH drier and cooler air will filter into central Indiana, leading to a fantastic weekend. A northeasterly flow around high pressure will create a much more refreshing feel. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are a good bet this weekend.

The cooler, more refreshing air won’t stick around for more than a few days before warmth rebuilds. This is in association with the MJO moving into Phase 1 (a phase favoring widespread warmth across the Lower 48 this time of year). Drier conditions should prevail as temperatures warm early June.

An interesting item to keep tabs on has to do with the potential of tropical “mischief” in the Gulf towards mid-late month. If you have beach plans down to those beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this is something I’d recommend keeping a close eye on over the next 2-3 weeks. Should something develop, the pattern would favor the central/ eastern Gulf it would appear from this distance.

No Comments Client, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, MJO, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm