Category Archives: Tornadoes

Snow Update And Looking Ahead Towards Mid-March…

Snow will overspread central Indiana through the late morning hours into the afternoon.

While the overall idea where the accumulating snow would fall was a good one from early week, our initial expected amounts won’t come to fruition. The reason? The storm system is much weaker and faster moving than originally modeled.

Accordingly, this is a 1″ to 2″ type event for most of the area. The majority of the snow will fall from noon to 5p.

A period of snow will scoot across central Indiana from late morning into the early evening hours.

This same storm system will be responsible for a severe weather outbreak, including the possibility of a couple of strong tornadoes, across the Deep South this afternoon.

Back here on the home front, MUCH colder air will pour into the region this evening, remaining in place into the new work week. Back-to-back nights with lows in the upper 0s to lower 10s can be expected across central Indiana Monday and Tuesday mornings.

This is all part of the overall colder than normal first half of March, powered by the SOI crash (several week ago), deeply negative EPO, and MJO rumbling through the cold phases.

Additional storm dates to keep note off include Thursday night into Friday (more of a wintry threat with the 3/7-3/8 system) and Saturday into Sunday (potential strong thunderstorms with the system on 3/9-3/10).

Looking ahead, it still appears the mid-March warm-up is on track as the EPO flips to positive.

With that warm-up will also come a return of heavier precipitation events and a continued overall active storm track across the region. Precipitation looks to run above average for the mid-month stretch.

We’ll dig deeper early week on what lies ahead as we close the month of March and look ahead towards April…

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Dissecting Today’s Severe Potential; Winter Returns & Looking More In-depth At The New JMA Weeklies…

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has significantly expanded the “slight risk” area to include a large portions of the state.


While a fresh batch of heavy rain will move into central Indiana later this morning (another 1″ to 2″ is a good bet for most communities), the focus shifts to a window where severe thunderstorms will be possible during the early to mid afternoon.

A warm front will lift north through central IN late morning and this will allow relatively warm and moist air to briefly surge as far north as a Logansport to Fort Wayne line.

Note dew points will spike to 60 to 63 degrees over much of central and eastern IN this afternoon.

It’s during the 1p to 5p window when we’re most concerned for the chance of a few severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging winds are of greatest concern, but anytime you have a warm front hanging around central Indiana with these kinds of setups, the potential of a tornado is in the back of your mind. I don’t foresee this being a major tornado outbreak whatsoever, but parameters do suggest the chance of a quick spin-up tornado is present, as well during this timeframe.

The cold front will crash into Indianapolis between 4p and 5p and you’ll certainly know it.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will blow sharply cold air into the region this evening and tonight. In fact, highs in the lower to middle 60s this afternoon will be into the 20s before midnight. Lows Friday morning will fall into the 10s and highs Friday will only top out in the lower 20s with wind chill values in the single digits most of the day.

After a dry open to the weekend, we continue to monitor the potential of a light wintry event Sunday into early Monday. This doesn’t appear to be a big deal, but the chance is there for an inch or two of snow for portions of the central and northern Ohio Valley during this timeframe.

Additional challenges await early and mid next week, but we’ll save those for updates later this afternoon or evening.

JMA Weeklies

The updated JMA Weeklies are in and in short suggest the southeast ridge continues to put up a fight over the next couple of weeks before getting “squashed” in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe.

This is in line with our thinking of the “transitional” period beginning this upcoming week. We think cold will begin to “push,” but isn’t ready to lock-in as of yet. There will be cold readily available to present more of a wintry potential with storms that track through the region when compared to this week, but we think it’s the period from 2/17 through early March that has the capability of featuring more sustained cold.

That’s a strong signal being painted by the JMA Weeklies in the Weeks 3-4 timeframe for widespread cold. Given that the MJO is forecast to swing into Phase 8 by this timeframe, along with the NAO/ AO looking to dip negative, the widespread cold look is a good idea to us during this particular time period.

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Active Severe Weather Day…

We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather this afternoon and evening across central and eastern portions of the state.  The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center includes an ‘Enhanced’ risk for the majority of the state and has upgraded southeastern portions of the state into a rare ‘Moderate’ risk.

Part of the reason behind today’s severe weather has to do with an overall pattern shift. An intense short wave trough (especially for this time of year) will dig into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.  At the surface, an area of low pressure will track from southern WI (this morning) before “cutting off” over the Ohio Valley this weekend.  Additionally, a couple of frontal boundaries will swing through the state- the most potent being the boundary that surges east this afternoon and evening.  The combination of ingredients spell trouble across at least a portion of the region- especially from Indianapolis and points south and east this afternoon and evening.

High resolution forecast radar products are likely struggling with handling the specifics today, but we think one or two lines of storms will track southeast across the state this afternoon and evening.  The risk of severe weather will diminish from 7p to 8p from northwest to southeast across the state.  Greatest concerns from a severe perspective include the potential of large, damaging hail and straight line winds.  Additionally, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out.  It’ll be important to remain weather-aware this afternoon and evening.  Have a means of getting the latest information with respect to watches and warnings that may be issued later today from the National Weather Service.

As we look ahead, though the severe threat will end, unsettled times will remain this weekend.  In fact, a couple of the stronger showers Saturday afternoon could contain hail (below severe levels), due to the cold air aloft associated with the upper low.  Greatest coverage of showers this weekend will come during the afternoon and evening hours both Saturday and Sunday.

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