We have growing concerns of a severe weather event Sunday afternoon and evening across the state. This morning, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has included most of Indiana in an “Enhanced” risk of severe weather. From this distance, all modes of severe weather seem possible, including large hail, damaging winds, and even a tornado or two.
A trough and associated cold front will slice into an unseasonably warm and increasingly moist air mass Sunday. Ahead of the approaching front, temperatures should climb into the lower 70s Sunday afternoon (average high is in the upper 50s) and dew points will reach the lower to middle 60s. While the developing surface low isn’t expected to be terribly strong, as this feature moves northeast, it’ll help drag a cold front into this warm and increasingly unstable air mass late Sunday. From this distance, conditions seem favorable for a couple of super cells to develop Sunday afternoon and evening. We’ll have to keep a close eye on the northward extent of the warm front as this would be the areas of greatest concern for potential tornadic activity Sunday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds are also included in Sunday’s severe threat. We’re in the second severe weather season, after all, and this kind of event isn’t unusual. Late November 2013 comes to mind.
It’ll be important to remain weather-aware Sunday and stay tuned all weekend for future updates. We’ll transition to a much cooler regime (back to below average) next week.
A cold front will slice into unseasonably warm and moist air Sunday afternoon and evening. A severe weather episode is a growing concern. Remain weather-aware.
Highlights:
Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.
As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover. This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours. Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.
In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates. This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.
As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential. “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening. This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.
This warmer regime is the sign of stormy times that will develop as we move into Tuesday. An initial round of showers and thunderstorms will impact central Indiana Tuesday morning and the HRRR forecast radar is picking up on this nicely, especially during the predawn hours.
The wet, stormy start to the day will give way to a mostly dry time of things through the majority of the daylight hours Tuesday, but our concentration will be on the Tuesday night-Wednesday morning period, as the potential exists for some rather turbulent weather.
Modeled radar suggests things may begin to get “busy” around these parts late evening and during the overnight. The latest high resolution NAM (hot off the press as of this update) paints a rather ominous look as midnight nears Wednesday morning.
We then note modeling bringing the squall line through central Indiana during the overnight and predawn hours. We’ll have to fine tune timing as we move through the day Tuesday, but we bracket the hours of 2a and 6a when a concentrated line of strong to severe storms rumbles through the state (northwest to southeast). Hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but a quick spin-up tornado can’t be ruled out.
Our weather will turn quieter, but colder, as Wednesday progresses into Wednesday evening, including blustery conditions with falling temperatures.
That said, the chilly late week conditions won’t last long, and a gusty southwesterly air flow will develop as early as Saturday. This will help give temperatures a significant boost Saturday afternoon after a cold start to the day. 60° is possible Saturday afternoon and the mercury may approach 70° Sunday!