Category: T-storms

Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…

A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.

The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.

These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.


Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.

Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.

Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.

As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/13/off-to-the-races-warmth-met-with-periodic-storms/

From One Extreme To The Other…

The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.

Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.

A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!

The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.

For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.

We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.

Stay tuned.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/11/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/

VIDEO: Stage Set For Record Cold Saturday AM; Updated Long Range Thoughts Towards Memorial Day Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/08/video-stage-set-for-record-cold-saturday-am-updated-long-range-thoughts-towards-memorial-day-weekend/

Welcome To May: Threat Of Record Cold Week 2…

A gorgeous Friday is dialed up complete with plentiful sunshine and temperatures warming quickly from the mid and upper 30s into the mid and upper 60s.

A couple weak impulses of energy will scoot through the Ohio Valley over the next 24 hours and while they will spark a few showers/ embedded thunder predawn Saturday and again Saturday night, most of the daytime hours Saturday will also feature dry conditions.

That begins to change Sunday as widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to rumble across central Indiana, especially during the morning hours. Locally heavy downpours are likely.

A quick 1”-1.25” is a good bet across the heart of the state with this system Sunday morning.

Dry conditions will quickly return Sunday evening into Monday thanks to high pressure briefly building back into the region. This will lead to a pleasant open to the work week with highs topping out in the middle 60s.

Unsettled weather returns as early as Tuesday with increased chances of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a strong cold front.

Though we’ll certainly turn cooler for the middle to latter part of the week, this will only be a precursor to what lies ahead behind yet another strong cold front late next week.

The air will likely challenge records into the Week 2 time frame (May 8th-14th), including the threat and increased likelihood of late season frost/ freezes. We also likely haven’t seen the last of the snow flakes for the season either…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/01/welcome-to-may-threat-of-record-cold-week-2/

VIDEO: Unsettled Weather Gives Way To A Gorgeous Open To The Weekend; Cool 1st Half Of May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/29/video-unsettled-weather-gives-way-to-a-gorgeous-open-to-the-weekend-cool-1st-half-of-may/

VIDEO: Damp Midweek; Late Season Frost/ Freeze Threat Alive And Kicking Into Mid-May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/28/video-damp-midweek-late-season-frost-freeze-threat-alive-and-kicking-into-mid-may/

VIDEO: Tuesday Night Storms; Chilly Air Reinforces Itself After Briefly Milder Period…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/video-tuesday-night-storms-chilly-air-reinforces-itself-after-briefly-milder-period/

Week-Ahead Outlook; Additional Early-May Chatter…

We may only have a few days left in April, but widespread frost is being reported across north-central into east-central Indiana (yet again) with most across the region in the lower to middle 30s this morning.

Sunshine will dominate to start our Monday before mid and high level clouds increase this afternoon into the evening hours. Eventually these clouds will produce scattered showers by evening (targeting a 6p-7p arrival into central Indiana).

Initially these showers should be very light and scattered in nature, but heavier rain and embedded thunder will develop during the overnight hours.

Showers and embedded thunder will exit Tuesday morning and most of the day will be rain-free, including a return of sunshine. This will help boost high temperatures into the lower 70s Tuesday! Unfortunately, an approaching cold front will lead to a return of storms Tuesday evening and much cooler air by midweek. A few of the storms could reach strong to severe status Tuesday night with the primary concern being damaging wind and large hail.

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday night. A few of these may be strong to severe.

The cold front will sweep through the area Wednesday followed by a cut off upper low “wobbling” around the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. This will lead to windy, showery, and much cooler conditions for midweek. In fact, temperatures Thursday will likely fall into the 40s during the daytime.

By the time all is said and done, we think most central Indiana communities can expect between 1.25″ and 1.75″ of rain, but there will be some locally heavier amounts in excess of 2″.

Major improvements are ahead as we get set to close the work week. High pressure will briefly build into the area, supplying plentiful sunshine and warmer conditions Friday.

The warmth will persist into the weekend and this morning’s video update dives into the longer range.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/27/week-ahead-outlook-additional-early-may-chatter/

VIDEO: Busy Week Ahead; Discussing The Drivers Behind What Should Be An Overall Chilly 1st Half Of May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/26/video-busy-week-ahead-discussing-the-drivers-behind-what-should-be-an-overall-chilly-1st-half-of-may/

Evening Video Update: Timing Out Weekend Rain And Looking Ahead To A Chilly Open To May…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/04/24/evening-video-update-timing-out-weekend-rain-and-looking-ahead-to-a-chilly-open-to-may/

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