Category: T-storms

Active Week Of Weather Ends Wintry…

Highlights:

  • Pleasant close to the weekend
  • Rainy open to the work week
  • Turning colder with rain and snow late week

Sunshine Gives Way To Rain…The weekend will end on a pleasant note as weak high pressure provides a variably cloudy sky today.  That early-April sunshine will help temperatures top out in the lower 60s this afternoon.

Clouds will increase tonight and showers will develop during the overnight period.  We’ll add a little instability to the mix by afternoon and introduce thunderstorms into the forecast Monday afternoon and evening.  This storm system will then exit just as quickly as it arrives Monday night and help set up a pleasant Tuesday.

Eyes will then shift to a stronger storm system that will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms Wednesday, with locally heavy rain a good bet.  As the storm wraps up over the Great Lakes region late week, colder air will spill into the state on gusty northwesterly winds.  Backlash, wind-whipped, rain showers will transition to wet snow showers Thursday into Friday as colder air settles in.  The good news here is that the weekend will get off to a nice start…after a cold beginning Saturday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ 2.50″ with locally heavier totals

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-week-of-weather-ends-wintry/

Quiet Weekend Gives Way To An Active Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Nice weekend
  • Rain returns Sunday night-Monday
  • Strong storm potential Wednesday PM
  • Cold close to the week

Sunshine Should Make An Appearance Today…The weekend is opening chilly, including wind chills around freezing this morning.  Hang in there- sunshine should at least make an appearance later on this afternoon and Sunday certainly looks to be a brighter day, overall, before clouds increase late and give way to showers overnight into Monday morning.

We’re back to sunshine Tuesday before a stronger storm begins to impact the state Wednesday.  A rather robust area of low pressure will track into the Great Lakes region Wednesday night and help pull a briefly warmer, increasingly moist air mass into the area.  Potential is present for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening into the nighttime.  We’ll then transition to a much cooler regime to close the week and with low pressure slowly pivoting through the Ohio Valley, showers will continue Thursday into Friday.  In fact, the air may grow cold enough to allow for a few wet snowflakes to mix with the rain by Friday morning.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.75″ – 2.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/quiet-weekend-gives-way-to-an-active-work-week/

Active Times In The Forecast Office…

Highlights:

  • Wet, chilly close to the work week
  • Dry weekend
  • Couple storms and turning colder late next week

Busy Weather Pattern Continues…An area of low pressure is swirling overhead this morning and will help promote periods of showers into the early afternoon before drier air begins to push in.  Perhaps the bigger story will be falling daytime temperatures.  By the evening rush, most neighborhoods should be deep into the 40s with a gusty northerly breeze at times.

We still forecast a dry weekend as high pressure builds in.  Early fog and clouds will be slow to give way to sunshine Saturday, but by afternoon and evening we should see some breaks in the cloud cover.  We’ll label Saturday as “mostly cloudy” before more in the way of sunshine works in for the second half of the weekend.

The dry times won’t last, unfortunately, and another storm system promises showers and thunderstorms as early as Monday.  This will then be followed by a bigger storm the middle of the week that will, once again, lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms.  The other point we want to drive home for late next week will be an increasingly chilly regime.  Temperatures will fall Thursday and even though it’s beyond the current forecast period, sub-freezing lows are a good bet next weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.00″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/active-times-in-the-forecast-office/

Thursday Morning Rambles…

1.)  Morning showers and thunderstorms continue to impact north-central Indiana this morning and given the look to downstream trends on radar and satellite, it would seem like it’s going to be tough to get into any sort of significant sunshine this afternoon. This is great news as it’ll limit severe potential.  That said, we still can’t rule out a severe thunderstorm this evening with large hail and damaging straight line winds of greatest concern.  The updated (9a eastern) outlook from the Storm Prediction Center continues the “enhanced risk” for the southern half of Indiana.

2.)  We bracket the hours of 2p-8p (couple hours earlier from yesterday’s thinking) as the period of potential most widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across central Indiana, and the HRRR forecast radar shows what the radar may look like this evening. Have a means of getting the latest warnings.

3.)  Scattered showers will continue into Friday morning before drier air arrives during the evening hours.

4.)  This drier trend Friday PM is one that will continue into the weekend.  High pressure will supply mostly dry weather through the entire weekend (small shower chances return Sunday evening), including sunshine.

5.)  Another active period of weather awaits next week, including multiple rain chances early and late week.  The latter storm looks to be the bigger event with heavy rain and thunderstorm potential Wednesday into Thursday.  7-day rain numbers check in between 1.5″-2″ with locally heavier amounts.

6.)  The story becomes a chilly one next weekend, and models suggest central Indiana may be dealing with frost and freeze conditions by next Saturday or Sunday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-2/

Timing Thursday Storms…

Happy Wednesday!  Today’s sunshine sure was nice and I hope you had an opportunity to get outside and enjoy it.  Unfortunately, the pleasant weather won’t last as a storm system begins to impact central Indiana as early as the overnight period.  Clouds will continue to thicken tonight and showers and thunderstorms (non-severe) will arrive during the predawn hours.

We note short-term, high resolution, forecast radar data brings the initial wave of thunderstorms through the city during the 2a-3a time frame early Thursday morning.

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact central Indiana through the mid and late morning hours Thursday.

As we press into the early afternoon hours, model data suggests we see a “lull” in the stormy weather and potentially even a few breaks in the cloud cover.  This would serve to “up the ante” in regards to the prospects of severe weather potential Thursday afternoon, particularly mid and late afternoon through the evening hours.  Accordingly, the Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight central Indiana for the risk of severe weather Thursday.

In fact, given a look at the most recent data, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the “enhanced” risk area expand further north in future updates.  This would also include all modes of severe weather (large hail, damaging straight line winds, and potentially a tornado). As things stand this evening, we bracket the hours of 4p and 10p Thursday for the greatest potential of severe weather.

Forecast radar paints a stormy picture Thursday evening and, as mentioned above, a few of these storms could become severe.

As we push into the overnight hours Thursday into Friday, unsettled weather will continue, but we’ll get rid of the severe potential.  “Nuisance” type showers will continue into the first half of Friday before drier air arrives Friday afternoon and evening.  This drier theme will settle in for the weekend and provide a very pleasant open to April.

Ensure you remain weather-aware Thursday and have a means of getting the latest warnings.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/timing-thursday-storms/