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Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-warming-up-for-memorial-day-weekend-but-the-pattern-once-again-trends-cooler-to-close-may/
May 16
VIDEO: Gorgeous Saturday; Storms Return Tonight And Looking Ahead Towards Memorial Day Weekend…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/video-gorgeous-saturday-storms-return-tonight-and-looking-ahead-towards-memorial-day-weekend/
May 14
Thursday Morning Rambles: Storms Accompany Warmth; Interesting “Twist” To The Longer Range…
I. After a cold and dry open to May, (Month-to-date, Indianapolis is running 8.4° below avg. and 1.24” below normal in the precipitation department) changes have arrived.
II. A warm front will lift north through the state today and deliver those warmer changes. The transition from cool to more of an early summer feel will be met with a couple rounds of storms today. Some of those storms will be strong to severe (damaging winds being the greatest concern), especially north of the city. Strongest storms should arrive across the northern half of the state during the early to mid afternoon hours.
III. A “half-n-half” weekend is expected. After a wet Friday, drier air is expected to arrive to help us out Saturday. Showers and storms will return Sunday courtesy of a cold front and associated surface low. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible Friday & Sunday and when you add in what falls today, most of the state from the city and points north can expect widespread 2”-2.5” with locally heavier amounts.
IV. An area of low pressure and upper level trough is now shown to “cut off” over the Mid-Atlantic region in the medium range period. This is forecast to dramatically cool the Monday through Thursday time frame (instead of 80s, we’re now talking upper 50s, 60s and low 70s during the period). This is worth keeping an eye on as models can struggle handling these kind of features, but as it stands now, after a brief encounter with warmth this weekend, it doesn’t appear as if we’ll get back to the heat until Memorial Day weekend.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/thursday-morning-rambles-storms-accompany-warmth-interesting-twist-to-the-longer-range/
May 13
Off To The Races; Warmth Met With Periodic Storms…
A band of light showers is falling across southern Indiana this morning, but these are expected to diminish before pushing into central Indiana. Most of the remainder of our Wednesday should be rain-free.
The quiet times will give way to a couple of rounds of storms during the overnight and into Friday. Most notably for central Indiana, we think storm chances will increase significantly after midnight and through the predawn hours Thursday. Locally heavy rain and vivid lightning is expected with the stronger storms.
These storms are in association with a warm front lifting north through the state. Speaking of warm, we’ll certainly notice a difference in air masses between today (still relatively cool and dry) and tomorrow (much warmer and more humid). In fact, highs Thursday will flirt with 80° across most of central Indiana.
Once we get rid of the early morning storms, most of the remainder of our Thursday will be dry and feature a return of the sun.
Another round of storms is expected Thursday night into Friday, but most of these will remain well north of our area. A few of these could become severe across northwestern Indiana during this period.
Rain and storm chances will increase once again during the day Friday across central Indiana. A few strong storms will be possible.
As we look ahead to the weekend, it appears we’ll be able to enjoy a mostly dry day Saturday (widely scattered storm possible) before more widespread storms return Sunday. Warm and humid conditions will prevail. A cold front will move through the area early next week which will allow for briefly cooler, drier air to move in during the 1st half of next week. Before that takes place, rainfall amounts between tonight and Sunday are expected to range from 1.5” – 2” with locally heavier totals across central Indiana. Heavier rainfall amounts can be expected across northern Indiana (widespread 3” to 4” amounts during the same period).
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/off-to-the-races-warmth-met-with-periodic-storms/
May 11
From One Extreme To The Other…
The work week will get off to the same unusually chilly start we’ve begun to grow accustomed to. Additional frost and freeze threats are present Tuesday and Wednesday mornings if skies can clear (big if there). However, significant changes loom as we flip the page to the second half of the work week and longer term indications suggest we’re well on our way to a true summer-like feel by week 2.
Note how bullish the European ensemble is regarding the significant pattern flip over the next couple weeks.
A lot of this is driven by a change in the EPO. This is the kind of pattern that stands to at least threaten sending high temperatures soaring to between 85°-90° between Week 2 and month’s end. Talk about a contrast from the late winter and early spring-like chill to open the month!
The transition in the pattern is likely to be met with a much more active storm track through the area beginning midweek. There will be a threat of locally heavy rain and stronger storms that will continue at times into the weekend and beyond into next week, as well.
For a month that’s gotten off to a dry start, we’ll likely recover quickly with this wetter regime that accompanies the flip to warm.
We continue to believe most central Indiana neighborhoods will see between 1.75”-2.25” late week into the weekend, but there will be locally heavier amounts. The majority of data also suggests a corridor of wetter than normal conditions sets up from the Plains into the northern Ohio Valley/ Great Lakes into Week 2.
Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/from-one-extreme-to-the-other/