Category: T-storms

Focus On Mid Week Flood/ Storm Threat…

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35/ 50

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29/ 43

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21/ 35

17/ 28

16/ 24 

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Accumulating snow?

Forecast Updated: 02.19.14 @ 8:00a

One More Calm Day…A weak front blew through early Wednesday and produced a light shower for southeast parts of the state.  Sunshine will return Wednesday along with a blustery northwest wind.  It’ll be another mild day.

Concern For Flooding And Severe…With continued melting of a deep snow pack, combined with around an inch of rain (most of which falls within a 3 hour time period Thursday) and the stage will certainly be set for flooding.  In fact, we remain very concerned for flooding Thursday. If you live in a flood prone area, please prepare to seek higher ground Thursday as flood waters rise.

The second concern is a severe potential Thursday evening.  While the greatest threat for severe weather will remain south and east of our immediate region, we’ll have to be mindful of the potential of damaging straight line wind gusts Thursday evening.  The greatest threat lies between 5PM and 8PM Thursday as a line of thunderstorms pushes east through the state.  Again, damaging straight line winds, in excess of 60 MPH, is our greatest concern at present time.  Stay tuned.  Drier and much colder air will roar in behind the front Thursday night on strong and gusty northwest winds.

Weak Weekend Disturbances…A couple of fast moving disturbances will pass through the region this weekend and could spark scattered snow showers in the much colder air.

Accumulating Snow Early Next Week…Model data continues to struggle in the mid range handling energy coming east before what continues to look like a big blast of arctic air to wrap up February.  As of now, we’re targeting Tuesday for best chances of accumulating snow, but stress this a low confidence forecast in regards to timing at present.  Stay tuned.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/18/focus-on-mid-week-flood-storm-threat/

Cold Today; Messy Monday Ahead.

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16/ 25

15/ 33

20/ 39

24/ 42

35/ 57

28/ 45

28/ 50 

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1-3″ (and ice)

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0.50″-1.00″

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Forecast Updated 02.16.14 @ 11:15a

Cold Sunday…Fresh off celebrating our snowiest winter on record (surpassed last night at IND at 51.6″ and the Record Event Report can be found here), we’ll enjoy a dry day, but blowing and drifting snow will remain an issue in the open country. A few breaks in the cloud cover can be expected this afternoon on what will otherwise be a rather cloudy day.  Highs will only climb into the lower to middle 20s (well below the average high of 40 and closer to the normal low of 24).  Yes, our cold, snowy winter just keeps on keepin’ on!

Snow And Ice Issues Monday…A storm system will move through the region Monday and deliver a mixture of precipitation types across central Indiana.  The way we see things unfolding as of this forecast update brings a wintry mix of sleet and snow into the city around noon with periods of moderate to even heavy wintry precipitation falling into the mid to late afternoon hours before we begin to see the shield of moisture push northeast.  This will be a “thump and go” type event.

As for precipitation type, this remains a challenge and will require much fine tuning later tonight and through the day tomorrow (another now cast scenario).  We’re thinking mostly snow is the dominant form of precipitation from the northern suburbs of Indianapolis and points north.  Here, 2-3″ of wet snow is possible, polished off with a light glaze of a freezing rain/sleet mixture before precipitation ends.  For the city, itself, we think around 1-2″ of snow is possible with a glaze of freezing rain of around a tenth of an inch. Farther south, to include the southern Indianapolis suburbs, an icy mixture of sleet and freezing rain will be the concern with glaze potential approaching one quarter inch.  Again, we caution this is our best idea at this point and we’ll post some fresh thoughts later this evening.

Needless to say, tomorrow stands to include treacherous driving conditions in and around central Indiana and the National Weather Service will likely issue Winter Weather/ Freezing Rain Advisories later this afternoon to account for the wintry conditions anticipated tomorrow afternoon.

Flooding Concerns On The Rise…With such a deep snowpack across central Indiana, combined with a frozen ground, flooding concerns will be on the rise as early as the middle to latter part of the week.  We think dry and chilly (albeit milder) conditions will be with us Tuesday, but low clouds, fog, and drizzle likely develop by Wednesday as milder air streams north over the snowpack locked in across the region.

By Thursday, our attention turns to the potential of heavy rain and a couple of thunderstorms as a cold front blows through the region.  Early ideas of Thursday rainfall numbers would suggest anywhere from .50-1″ of rain is laid down and when combined with the heavy snow pack and milder air, flooding concerns will certainly be present.  Needless to say, if you live in a flood prone area, please monitor the situation closely later this week.

Winter Blows Back In…As promised, the briefly milder shot of air would be just that- brief.  We continue to monitor data that suggests a colder, more wintry, pattern blows right back into the region to wrap up February.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/16/cold-today-messy-monday-ahead/

Valentine’s Day Snow

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Forecast Updated 02.14.14 @ 11:00a

Accumulating Valentine’s Day Snow…The Canadian led the charge and other modeling has followed suit.  The region will deal with accumulating snow Valentines Day as low pressure moves southeast out of Missouri into the Tennessee Valley.  We think snow will fall at a good clip, periodically heavy, and begin around mid morning around the city.  In fact, a strip of 2-5″ of snow is likely to be laid down between Indianapolis and Louisville later today.  Latest radar trends from upstream and banding features suggest snowfall amounts may reach 6″ along the I-70 corridor. Needless to say, if you have travel plans this afternoon plan for snow covered roads and slick travel.

A fresh shot of arctic air will drill south into the region tonight and result in Saturday “wake up” temperatures in the single digits with a biting northwest wind.

Another Fast Moving Clipper…After a mostly dry Saturday, we forecast light snow to build back into the region Saturday night into early Sunday.  This will only be a light snow event and most amounts will be in the dusting to 1″ category.  The sun should quickly return Sunday afternoon, though it’ll remain colder than normal.

Foggy Start To The Week…As a southerly air flow transports milder air north and over the snow pack across central Indiana fog will develop.  It’s possible some freezing drizzle is dealt with Monday morning before temperatures rise above freezing.  Prepare for a downright gloomy start to the work week.  A cold front will push through the region Monday evening and lead to a period of showers, potentially transitioning to light snow or a light wintry mix Monday night as cold air sweeps back in.

A Spring Tease…A spring tease will have many Hoosiers wanting to break out the shorts by the mid week period.  In fact, highs will zoom into the 60s Thursday, courtesy of a strong and gusty southwest breeze.  The downside?  A line of showers and gusty thunderstorms later in the day.  While we still have a week to monitor this situation, the possibility is there for a few storms to reach severe levels across the Ohio Valley region.  Stay tuned as we monitor this developing weather situation.

Looking longer term, we anticipate the briefly milder spring “tease” to be just that.  Signals are increasingly favorable for a prolonged period of cold, wintry conditions building back into the region as we put a wrap on February and head into March.

imagesFor weather updates and more “behind the scenes” data on the go, be sure to Follow Us on Twitter @indywx or become a Friend of IndyWx.com on Facebook!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/02/13/valentines-day-snow/

Extremely Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Ahead…

Good morning!  We’re waking up to sunshine this morning after a round of rain and thunderstorms overnight.  Over 1″ of rain fell for many during the overnight period (1.53″ to be exact here at IndyWx.com HQ).

Unfortunately, skies now are clearing and this is only going to aid in the severe weather potential today, including some dangerous long-lived and strong tornadoes.

ECWVThis is a very rare November high severe weather risk day and must be taken seriously by all.

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The thinking here hasn’t changed in that we feel discrete super cells develop during the late morning and early afternoon before morphing into a squall line capable of producing damaging straight line wind. With the dynamics and energy in play here, any of these super cells could spawn a tornado. Additionally, it’s possible that a few of these tornadoes could be long tracked and very strong tornadoes.  The latest high-resolution simulated radar data shows this well.

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We still target a cold front passing through the region around, or just after, sunset and with this frontal passage the severe weather will come to an abrupt end.  The latest HRRR data shows this well as dew points begin to crash behind the cold front, indicative a much drier, cooler, and more stable air mass arriving tonight.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/17/extremely-dangerous-severe-weather-outbreak-ahead/

Late Saturday Night: Thunderstorms Develop Overnight; Update On Sunday

Good evening, Hoosiers!  Showers are developing now, and these will increase in coverage and intensity as we progress through the overnight. As we move into the wee morning hours, don’t be surprised if you’re awoken with loud claps of thunder, gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail.  That said, we think overnight thunderstorms remain below what would officially be considered “severe.”

Here’s a look at the simulated radar later tonight, valid at 2am local time, courtesy of the HRRR model.

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As for Sunday, we continue to look over the latest data and our thoughts haven’t changed. It still appears the two biggest threats will be from damaging straight line winds and the possibility of quick spin-up tornadoes associated both within the squall line, itself, but also with any individual severe cells that develop before “morphing” into the squall line.  It should also be pointed out that even outside thunderstorms, southwest winds will howl across central Indiana, periodically gusting upwards of 40-45 MPH even outside of thunderstorms. Hunker down…

The latest high-resolution NAM suggests the possibility of super cells entering western Indiana early Sunday afternoon before organizing into a squall line as it moves through central and western Indiana. This line will mean business as it moves east across the state, and latest data suggests the most significant severe threat for central Indiana will be from 12 noon through 6p, moving west to east.  By sunset Sunday, most of central Indiana will see a much needed (and much colder) wind shift to the northwest, ending any threat of severe weather.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/16/late-saturday-night-thunderstorms-develop-overnight-update-on-sunday/

Some Saturday Afternoon Thoughts…

We continue to monitor Sunday’s severe weather outbreak very closely.  Simply put, the latest data suggests all of central Indiana will be under the gun for a potentially dangerous and life threatening severe weather event Sunday.  The bullet points highlighted in our previous post haven’t changed, but we note tornado parameters may be even more impressive per latest data.  Unfortunately, I’m afraid multiple tornado touchdowns will be reported across central Indiana tomorrow afternoon, followed by a more widespread damaging straight line wind event mid to late evening.  Certainly please keep abreast of the latest watches and warnings that will come tomorrow.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop tonight, but will remain below severe levels.  The latest NAM simulated radar shows the developing showers and thunderstorms tonight.

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Fast forward to Sunday evening and we note a line  of severe thunderstorms moving through central Indiana, including a potential widespread damaging wind event.

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Also, just to let you know, we’re also monitoring next weekend for another possible big weather event.  This time we’re not talking severe weather, but possibly a major early season arctic attack…  The latest European model isn’t holding back.  Could a cold Thanksgiving week be shaping up?  We’ll monitor closely.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/16/some-saturday-afternoon-thoughts/

More On Sunday’s Severe Weather…

We’re zoning in on severe weather details for Sunday and have posted some simulated radar data below that may suggest what area radars look like Sunday afternoon and evening.  That said, here are the quick important bullet points to remember for Sunday:

  • Central Indiana appears to be under fire for severe weather potential at any point Sunday afternoon and we bracket the hours from 12p until 8p for the “greatest threat” of severe weather across the region.  
  • Initially, we’re concerned with the potential of individual severe cells that may promote quick spin-up tornadoes.  While this could impact any parts of central Indiana, it’s the area from south-central to east-central Indiana that we’re most concerned for this potential as of now.
  • All of central Indiana will be the focal point for the possibility of a damaging straight line wind event as a potent squall line crosses the state from west to east Sunday afternoon and evening.
  • Rainfall amounts may approach 1″, but it’s the severe weather (straight line wind and tornado threat) that’s of greatest concern.

Latest high-resolution simulated radar shows the squall line moving across the state Sunday afternoon and evening.  This is courtesy of the Weatherbell Analytics model suite.  Stay tuned for much more information and be sure to follow us on Twitter (@indywx) for updates on the go!

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The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center highlights Sunday’s severe weather threat.  As you can see below, this storm will impact a large portion of the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys so please take note and keep abreast of the latest weather conditions should you have travel plans Sunday.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/15/more-on-sundays-severe-weather/

Heavy Rain And Severe Outbreak Sunday

We continue to analyze the latest data concerning our pending severe weather episode ahead Sunday.  Today’s information continues to point towards the threat of not only a damaging straight line wind event, but the potential of multiple tornadoes across the central Ohio Valley.  The tornado threat would most likely occur with any individual super cells that develop Sunday afternoon.  The damaging straight line wind event would then be associated with what’s likely to be a squall line associated with the cold frontal passage Sunday night.  Needless to say, Sunday will be busy weather day across not only the Hoosier state, but for many folks across the Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley.  Additionally, widespread heavy rain is also a good bet.  Let’s look at some data:

First, let’s look at some rainfall numbers.  The ECMWF (European forecast model) and GEM (Canadian forecast model) are the most aggressive with rainfall totals approaching the 2″ mark for many areas of central Indiana between Sunday and Monday.  The GFS isn’t as bullish, forecast a little more than half an inch on it’s latest run.  Officially we’ll go with a blend of all three models and suggest widespread 1″ type rains across central Indiana during the Sunday-Monday period.

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Before we go further, we also want to highlight that winds will be strong and gusty Sunday even well away from any thunderstorms.  Winds will likely gust to 40-50 MPH simply by the tightening pressure gradient as surface low pressure begins to “bomb out” (rapidly intensify) on it’s journey into the Great Lakes region.

The dynamics are somewhat scary with this event and, as stated above, suggest not only an enhanced straight line damaging wind event, but also the potential of multiple tornadoes associated with any super cells that get going Sunday afternoon, well ahead of the squall line.  Despite a cold, dry air mass in place currently, the aforementioned strong southerly winds will help transport dew points into the lower to middle 60s come Sunday afternoon.  This will only help add fuel to the fire for storm development.

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Let’s take a look at the official Severe Weather Outlook for Sunday, courtesy of the Storm Prediction Center.  Some highlights from their most recent discussion:

SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS...BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
   GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
   ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
   OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
A 90+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...COUPLED
   WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR 850 MB FLOW...PERHAPS IN
   EXCESS OF 70 KTS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
   GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS
   AND SHEAR.  IT ALSO APPEARS INCREASINGLY PROBABLE THAT THIS WILL
   COINCIDE WITH AN INFLUX OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AT LEAST
   AS FAR NORTH AND EAST AS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...CONTRIBUTING TO
   SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT.  SUPERCELLS WITH A
   RISK FOR TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN EARLY STAGES
   OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS MID DAY ACROSS PARTS
   OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY VALLEY
EVENTUALLY...THOUGH...ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL EVOLVE INTO A SQUALL
   LINE WITH DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS BECOMING THE MOST PROMINENT
   SEVERE THREAT.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/14/heavy-rain-and-severe-outbreak-sunday/

Saturday Forecast: Chilly Weekend; Eyeing Another Significant Storm…

Updated 11.01.13 @ 10:53p

Zionsville, IN After a day filled with heavy rain and damaging winds, we closed the week out with chilly, but pleasant weather conditions.  We’ll enjoy a chilly weekend ahead and we’re eyeing another significant storm system that promises to have a renewed threat of heavy rain, severe weather, and a big temperature drop next week.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconSaturday: Mostly cloudy; Passing shower (0.05) 42/ 50

Reinforcing chilly air will blow into the state Saturday.  This will be accompanied by mostly cloudy skies, blustery northwest winds, and the threat of a passing light shower or sprinkles.  Grab the coat or jacket before heading out to get those Christmas lights put up or take care of those outdoor chores.

Status-weather-clouds-iconSunday: Partly cloudy; 33/ 51

We’ll wrap up the weekend with dry and chilly weather.  Plenty of sunshine will team up with cool, crisp fall air to present a beautiful close to the weekend.

 

Status-weather-clouds-iconMonday: Partly cloudy; 35/ 57

Partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures will greet folks on the way back to school and work.

 

Status-weather-showers-day-iconTuesday: Increasing clouds; developing nighttime showers (0.10) 48/ 60

We’ll eye our next storm system for a mid week arrival. Tuesday should start sunny, but mid and high level cloudiness will be on the increase followed by developing nighttime showers as warmer, more muggy, air moves over the top of the dry, chilly air in place initially.

Status-weather-showers-day-iconWednesday: Scattered daytime showers, increasing at night with thunderstorms (0.60)  54/ 62

A cold front will slide through the region Wednesday night and Thursday morning and this will be the focal point of more widespread showers and thunderstorms. We stress that it likely won’t rain all day Wednesday, but showers will be possible before the more widespread rain and thunderstorms Wednesday night into Thursday.

We’re monitoring this storm for a renewed threat of heavy rain and severe weather. At this distance, it’s far too early to be precise with the threat details, but we think widespread 1″+ rains are likely along with another enhanced straight-line wind event for at least portions of central Indiana during the Wednesday night/ Thursday time period.  Each storm system is different and presents its own set of challenges, but this storm has a few similarities to that which we just dealt with.

We have time to watch things and we’ll update accordingly as we move forward.  Stay tuned.

Status-weather-storm-night-iconThursday: AM Thunderstorms (0.50″) 42/ 55

We forecast thunderstorms to be likely Thursday morning, but as the cold front slides east of the region, the rain chance will end from west to east through the day.  Temperatures will cool dramatically as we go through the afternoon and evening hours with falling temperatures after a midnight high.

Status-weather-clouds-iconFriday: Partly cloudy; 32/ 45

The big story as we wrap up next week will be the colder air.  In fact, latest model data suggests we plunge into the 20s for lows by next Saturday morning.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/11/01/saturday-forecast-chilly-weekend-eyeing-another-significant-storm/

Tuesday Forecast: Changes Brewing…

Updated 10.29.13 @ 9:37a Zionsville, IN It’s another calm, cold, quiet start to the day, but changes are brewing. These changes include warmer, more muggy air by tonight and Wednesday,…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2013/10/29/tuesday-forecast-changes-brewing/

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