Category: T-storms

Tuesday Night Update; Southern Indiana Under Gun For A Big Severe Weather Day Wednesday.

It’s been a bit of a frustrating afternoon as I’ve been trying to upload a video discussing our thoughts around tomorrow for a couple of hours….only to no avail.

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So this post will have to do.  Really our thoughts remain unchanged concerning the way things unfold late tonight and Wednesday.  The severe thunderstorms to our northwest continue to rumble as of the 10 o’clock hour.

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The Storm Prediction Center holds firm to the Slight Risk for the Ohio Valley and northern Tennessee Valley Wednesday.

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We wouldn’t be surprised to see a portion (most likely the southern half) of the Slight Risk area upgraded to a rare Moderate Risk area with the update from the SPC early Wednesday morning.

Our thinking hasn’t changed in that we believe the current complex of severe storms arrives into north central Indiana in a weakened state early Wednesday morning.  The rush hour will likely include heavy rain and plenty of thunder, though we think the majority, if not all, of this activity Wednesday morning will remain below severe levels across our immediate region.  Showers and thunderstorms will rumble into the area, especially north of the city during the predawn hours and include plenty of heavy rain.

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A second round of showers and thunderstorms will fire during the afternoon Wednesday and is likely to turn severe across south central Indiana and points south Wednesday afternoon.  Dangerous conditions are a good bet, including large and destructive hail, damaging straight line winds, and tornadoes.  Certainly if you have plans from Indianapolis to Louisville or Cincy tomorrow afternoon and evening please keep tuned to the latest weather conditions and radar updates.  Further north, the severe potential is much less certain.  We continue to think areas north of the I-70 corridor will struggle to shake the stability provided from the early morning rain and storms.  We caution though that this remains a now-cast scenario and will require a close eye tomorrow afternoon.

Looking farther ahead, we’ll enjoy a refreshing blast of air Thursday-Saturday with bright sunshine, low humidity, and cooler temperatures.  Warmth and humidity will return Sunday with rainfall potential around 1″ additional precipitation.  This will be followed by yet another big push of cooler, drier air early next week.  More on this in the days to come.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/03/tuesday-night-update-southern-indiana-under-gun-for-a-big-severe-weather-day-wednesday/

Watching Wednesday Closely.

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After a heavy dose of rain across central Indiana Monday, today will be much quieter, AND increasingly sunny!  A boundary will slip south through the afternoon hours and could ignite a shower or thunderstorm, but these will primarily be south and east of the city, itself. We’re going with a more optimistic approach to our forecast today for the greater Indianapolis region and points north.  All eyes will then shift northwest to a blossoming complex of rain and severe thunderstorms this afternoon. We’ll watch this complex track south and east with time tonight and rumble into the region, especially from IND and points north, early Wednesday morning.  Most of these storms will be below severe levels, but the storms are likely to be quite noisy and pack heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.  A second round of thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon and likely turn severe for some.  You can read our thoughts from last night here and this continues to sum up our thinking for now.  Widespread additional rainfall Wednesday will fall in the 1″-2″ range.

Get set to open the windows and welcome in a breath of fresh air as we wrap up the work week. Gone will be the warm and sticky air that we’ve dealt with through the early week and in return we’ll enjoy temperatures several degrees cooler along with unseasonably comfortable humidity levels.

Our next rain and storm threat will blow into town Sunday!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/03/watching-wednesday-closely/

Wednesday Severe Threat Far From Etched In Stone…

Many central Indiana neighborhoods picked up copious amounts of rainfall within a short time period this afternoon and evening.  We received 2″ here at the IndyWx.com HQ within just under 90 minutes.

Forecast radar 5am Tue

Forecast radar 5am Tue

The rest of the evening will feature a drier theme as the axis of slow moving, torrential, downpours presses east.  That said, a couple of “rumblers” may be present during the early Tuesday morning period as a boundary slowly sinks south. We’re not talking about widespread heavy rain and storms, such as this evening, but a couple of thunderstorms may rumble across central Indiana early Tuesday morning before we dry things out and introduce sunshine for the majority of your Tuesday.

Our attention will then shift to another round of heavy rain and thunderstorms Wednesday.  A severe weather outbreak will unfold to our northwest late Tuesday afternoon.  While this severe weather episode is likely to begin with individual severe thunderstorms (including potentially tornadic super cells), the activity should eventually morph into a mesoscale convective complex (otherwise referred to as a MCC in the wonderful meteorological world) during the night Tuesday as the storms roll towards our neck of the woods.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) highlights the region for a Slight Risk of severe weather Wednesday.

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We want to stress that this particular severe weather episode is far from etched in stone.  Diving into our short to mid term forecast models would suggest the initial round of heavy rain and thunderstorms rumble into the state around 4-6am Wednesday- potentially in a weakened state when compared to what our friends and neighbors off to our north and west will experience Tuesday night.  Now it’s important that we insert the timing disclaimer to the equation as similar events in the past have been known to accelerate forward motion and arrive “ahead of schedule.”  (We’ll keep a close eye on the timing side of things and update Tuesday).

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We’re confident we’ll be dealing with heavy rain around these parts Wednesday morning along with plenty of thunder and lightning.  That said, there are many more questions than answers at the moment around whether or not severe levels will be reached, at least in our humble opinion.  Should severe weather be an issue, it would most likely come from the following two impacts- damaging straight line winds and large hail.  Again, we’re leaning more towards this initial round of showers and thunderstorms blowing into town in a weakening state.

Finally, there will be one more opportunity for strong to severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon, but this will be fueled by just how quickly the local air mass can warm and destabilize.  There are, again, questions around heating potential across the local area (central Indiana) and our thinking currently places a greater concern for damaging severe weather across southern Indiana into Kentucky (folks traveling to Louisville Wednesday afternoon would need to prepare for damaging severe potential).  Should we recover quicker than currently expected from Wednesday morning’s convection then we would need to hit the severe threat harder across central Indiana Wednesday afternoon.  Stay tuned for updates!

Storms will likely strengthen yet again Wednesday afternoon, especially across southern Indiana.

Storms will likely strengthen yet again Wednesday afternoon, especially across southern Indiana.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/02/wednesday-severe-threat-far-from-etched-in-stone/

Monday Morning Video Update; Severe Weather Potential And Heavy Rain…

An active few days lie ahead though it won’t rain and storm the entire time, and many dry hours can be expected over the course of the next few days.  The video covers the details below!

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Tuesday is shaping up to be a very active severe weather day to our west.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

Wednesday will feature severe weather chances across the Ohio Valley.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/02/monday-morning-video-update-severe-weather-potential-and-heavy-rain/

Sunday Morning Video Update; Storms Arrive This Evening.

We discuss the regime change from the low humidity, dry, feel to our air mass to one that turns increasingly muggy through the afternoon.  This sets the stage for a rainy, stormy week upcoming.  We think thunderstorms fire across central Indiana as early as 5-6 o’clock this evening.

Future scan radar suggests thunderstorms erupt as early as 5-6pm across central Indiana.

Future scan radar suggests thunderstorms erupt as early as 5-6pm across central Indiana.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/01/sunday-morning-video-update-storms-arrive-this-evening/

Saturday Morning Weather Chit-Chat!

A beautiful weekend is underway.  Stepping out on the deck this morning for my morning coffee was much more refreshing when compared to the past few days.  Dew points in the 40s along with temperatures around 60 made for a very nice feel this morning.

This morning’s visible satellite shows clear skies continue.  Definitely plan to get outside today, but with that sun screen!

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Most of Sunday will be nice, as well, but clouds and humidity levels will increase Sunday afternoon and evening and a couple of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as early as Sunday night.

Future radar shows scattered thunderstorms around the region Sunday night.

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Warmth and humidity will return to oppressive levels for the better part of next week and this will help add fuel to the fire for heavy rain and potentially strong thunderstorms.  Model data handles the timing differently with next week’s storm system (as is usual at this stage), but agrees on the heavy rain potential.  Widespread 1.5″ to 2″ rainfall appears to be a good bet at this point next week.

Upcoming 10 day rainfall potential, per the Canadian forecast model, shows the wet pattern unfolding, including excessive rains for some locales.

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The GFS (below) pushes the front south a bit quicker and in return delivers drier air next weekend.  The European forecast model doesn’t agree.

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Also of interest, the GFS continues to spin up Gulf of Mexico “mischief” late next week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/31/saturday-morning-weather-chit-chat/

Much Less Humid Weekend…

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After a week of that famous summer “heavy” air mass filled with plenty of warmth and humidity, Hoosiers can breathe a sigh of relief this weekend as a much more refreshing northeast flow provides greatly reduced humidity levels.  Also, we’ll enjoy plenty of sunshine for your weekend!  All-in-all, we’ve lucked out with yet another beauty of a weekend!  Get out and enjoy!  As we flip the page into the new work week, showers and thunderstorm chances will increase as humidity levels do a rather abrupt face and return to the sultry levels we grew accustomed to this week.  Locally heavy rainfall will be a possibility with such moisture content.  A period of widespread, enhanced, rains may fall late next week.  In unrelated weather news, we’ll also monitor the possibility of something “curious” down in the Gulf of Mexico towards the mid to late week period and the possibility of early season tropical mischief…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/30/much-less-humid-weekend/

Thursday Morning Video Update!

I-70 and points south will be the focal point today for shower and thunderstorm development.  The video covers this and takes a look at that all-important weekend!  Make it a great Thursday!

T-storms will ignite this afternoon, primarily south of the I-70 corridor.

T-storms will ignite this afternoon, primarily south of the I-70 corridor.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/29/thursday-morning-video-update/

Locally Heavy Rain Producing Storms This Afternoon…

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               67/ 81 64/ 80 56/ 80 57/ 81 59/ 83 68/ 84 70/ 84  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/28/locally-heavy-rain-producing-storms-this-afternoon/

Another Nice Weekend In The Middle Of An Unsettled Pattern…

The upcoming 7-10 days looks unsettled overall and quite wet.  That said, we’re set to enjoy another beautiful weekend with a refreshing northeast breeze in play.  We discuss this and look deeper into the month of June in this evening’s video update below!

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3" of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Latest model data suggests widespread 2-3″ of rain could fall across central Indiana over the course of the upcoming 7-10 days.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/05/27/another-nice-weekend-in-the-middle-of-an-unsettled-pattern/

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