Category: T-storms

Nice Day Shaping Up!

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Despite some morning fog (dense in our northern suburbs this morning), sunshine will quickly build in and remain for the day.  An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and again Friday afternoon, but the key word there is “isolated” and most will remain rain-free.  Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will return over the weekend through the early portion of the upcoming short work week.  We still forecast a MAJOR cool down just in time for Independence Day weekend.  Temperatures will turn much cooler than normal Thursday into Friday.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/nice-day-shaping-up/

Overall Drier, But Rain Chances Remain…

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               65/ 83 61/ 83 63/ 85 68/ 86 69/ 88 71/ 89 71/ 90  Light –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/25/overall-drier-but-rain-chances-remain/

Showers, Thunderstorms Expand In Coverage Later Today.

We’re eyeing a rather unsettled day across central Indiana, including numerous showers and thunderstorms that will likely develop across the region, especially from late morning into the evening hours.  So far, the majority of heavy rain and thunderstorms has remained off to our northwest, but that will likely change within the next few hours.

We’re tracking upper level energy off to our southwest this morning and this piece of energy will track northeast as we move through the second half of the day.

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The latest visible satellite image also shows the spin associated with the upper level energy over southern Illinois this morning.

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Note the heavy rain and embedded thunder currently to our southwest associated with this disturbance this morning.

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As this energy moves northeast there’s no reason to think widespread showers and thunderstorms won’t be around the region this afternoon and evening.  We note a very humid air mass in place with dew points around 70.  Furthermore, precipitable water (PWAT) will approach 2″ this afternoon across the area.  The upper energy will provide the needed lift.  Needless to say, the ingredients are in place for another round of heavy rain.

The HRRR simulated radar product has a pretty good handle on what the radar may look like this afternoon, valid at 3p.

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Widespread rainfall totals should fall within the 0.50″-1.00″ range on average today, but locally heavier totals closer to 2″ will certainly be possible under the heavier storms.

Interested in personal weather forecasts or consulting for yourself or place of business?  Email us at bill@indywx.com.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/24/showers-thunderstorms-expand-in-coverage-later-today/

Splash And Dash Storms To Open The Work Week…

Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun.               68/ 88 69/ 81 66/ 82 61/ 84 65/ 83 68/ 84 70/ 87  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/23/splash-and-dash-storms-to-open-the-work-week/

Feeling Like Summer!

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Though we officially just welcomed in summer, we’ve been in meteorological summer since June 1st.  The meteorological seasons include June through August for summer, September through November for fall, December through February for winter, and March through May for spring.  This week we’ll feel very much like summer, including seasonable temperatures and plenty of rain and storm chances!  Coverage of those showers and thunderstorms will be widely scattered today and Monday, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours.  While everyone won’t get wet, some locally heavy downpours are possible.  Looking ahead, we target better chances of more widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday and again Friday. The week ahead stands to be another wet one on the precipitation front, including widespread 1.5″-2″ totals during the course of the upcoming 7 days on average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/22/feeling-like-summer-2/

Line Of Storms Rumbles In Tonight…

A line of strong to severe thunderstorms has formed to our west and this line will push into central Indiana between 8-9 o’clock.  Guidance suggests this line will weaken as…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/21/line-of-storms-rumbles-in-tonight/

Severe Threat Later Tonight, But Some Questions Linger…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of severe weather that includes central Indiana, primarily for potential thunderstorms late today and tonight.

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Primary Threats:

  • Large hail
  • Damaging straight line winds

Discussion:

There are a few questions regarding the potential of severe weather across our immediate region.  It’s unclear how leftover outflow boundaries from thunderstorms during the overnight will interact as they push east.  That said, it’s possible these boundaries could help ignite a couple of clusters of thunderstorms across Iowa and Illinois later this afternoon.  This activity would then ride southeast.  Should we get storms to fire, they would likely hold together as they approach western and central Indiana.  CAPE will reach 2000-2200 J/kg this evening and low level moisture will be on the uptick, as well.  We’ll have an updated post this afternoon after we have a chance to see if convection (thunderstorms) fires to our west.

Enjoy your Saturday morning!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/21/severe-threat-later-tonight-but-questions-abound/

Diminished, But Not Eliminated…

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               70/ 85 67/ 85 65/ 85 67/ 88 69/ 83 66/ 83 63/ 82  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/20/diminished-but-not-eliminated/

Boone County, Central Indiana Flooding 6/19/14

A rather rare flood event took place across localized areas of central Indiana between Wednesday, June 18th, 2014 and Thursday, June 19th, 2014.  (27) hour rainfall totals 4pm Wednesday, June 18th through 7pm Thursday, June 19th reached 5.5″ (5) miles northwest of Zionsville, IN in southeastern Boone County, IN.  2.9″ of that rain fell in less than a (3) hour period between 4pm and 7pm Thursday, June 19th.

Local Agriculture impact:

Numerous central and southern Boone County crops experienced some sort of damage from rapid run off of the torrential rainfall.  Communities and farmland impacted included Lebanon, Whitestown, and Zionsville.

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Ground-truth reports taken at our IndyWx.com headquarters (5 miles northwest of Zionsville, just outside Whitestown, IN) recorded 5.5″ of rain within the (27) hour period mentioned above.

Radar estimated data also shows the widespread 4-5″+ rainfall totals across Boone County over the past 24 hours- Wednesday, June 18th through Thursday, June 19th.

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Forecast model data from as early as Thursday morning suggested that particular afternoon and evening could feature training of heavy rain producing thunderstorms through central Indiana, including some embedded strong to severe thunderstorms, despite the Storm Prediction Center including central Indiana in any sort of severe weather categorical outlook (Slight Risk, or above).  That said, it should also be noted that this wasn’t a major severe weather outbreak across central Indiana, though isolated severe weather reports did come in, including a brief tornado touchdown near Anderson Thursday afternoon, along with a couple of additional severe thunderstorm warnings.  That said, the purpose of this post will focus on the set-up for heavy, and in some cases excessive, rainfall “training” (moving repeatedly over the same locale) over central Indiana communities Thursday afternoon/ evening.

First, let’s take a look at the broad scale pattern set-up.  Needless to say, it’s certainly easy to see why localized flash flooding developed.

Thursday morning’s 06z model runs suggested CAPE values, or Convective Available Potential Energy, would reach 4800-5000 across central Indiana.  You can look at CAPE as the “umph,” or fuel, that basically will feed a thunderstorms it’s energy.  Anything over 2000 is considered plenty enough for strong thunderstorm potential.

hires_cape_ky_13The overall upper air pattern and steering currents suggested portions of the Ohio Valley would be under the gun, so to speak, for potential training of heavy rain and associated thunderstorms.

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Rich tropical moisture was readily available across the area, indicative of 06z forecast dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s across the Ohio Valley region.

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Perhaps the more telling story had to do with the forecast PWAT, or Precipitable Water, values that exceeded 2″ to 2.4″ across portions of central Indiana from the 06z model run Thursday morning.  PWAT values are a good indication of heavy rainfall potential should there be something to trigger (lifting mechanism) showers and storms.  PWAT values of 2″ and above are considered extreme and rather rare, even for this time of year.

We tip our hat to the 06z 4km NAM picking up on this early Thursday morning as it very closely matched where training thunderstorms and heavy rain initiated Thursday afternoon.  Take a look at the forecast PWAT levels and the afternoon radar on Thursday, June 19th, as storms began to develop:  Note rainfall rates exceeded 2″/ hr. across portions of central Indiana, including Boone County on the afternoon of June 19th.

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Compare that to the forecast radar from another one of our short-term, high resolution, forecast models, the HRRR, valid 6pm:

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(We want to thank the fine folks at Weatherbell Analytics for some of the forecast model images.  Additionally, thanks to Radarscope for the radar storm rainfall totals).

In closing, a combination of ingredients came together to present a localized, yet very significant flood event, for central Indiana.  The upper air pattern promoted movement of abnormally moist air to stream north into the Ohio Valley region.  At the same time, the same pattern resulted in a steering current that was relatively weak across our immediate region- adding to the potential of training.  The storms actually initiated (formed) along an old outflow boundary from the previous night, Wednesday, June 18th/ early morning Thursday, June 19th.

The days ahead will continue the unsettled theme across the region and we’ll have to remain on our toes for potential additional significant weather impacts as we move forward Friday, and even into the weekend.  Much more later.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/19/boone-county-central-indiana-flooding-61914/

Serious Flood Threat Evolving…

A serious weather situation continues to evolve across central Indiana with training thunderstorms, including rainfall rates easily capable of producing flash flooding.  Here at IndyWx.com HQ, we’ve accumulated 5″ of rainfall since 4pm Wednesday (as of 6pm Thursday).  By the way, it’s still raining.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/19/serious-flood-threat-evolving/

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