Category: T-storms

Tuesday Night Weather Rambles…

It’s hard to believe we’re approaching the July 4th holiday already.  Where is the summer going?!  I remember back in my football days, once past the 4th, summer was over for me as two-a-days began the following week.  Come late July, we would beg for the fall semester of school to begin!  🙂

If you’re like me, the upcoming weather pattern in the days ahead will certainly have you craving fall!  Lows in outlying areas will dip into the upper 40s come Friday morning (not bad for the 4th of July, huh)?  Anyway, here are some things that have the attention of IndyWx.com in the days (and weeks) ahead…

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1.)  Trending Cooler…Note the cooler air in the upper Mid West this evening, including many already in the 50s and 60s.  That cooler air will head south with time Wednesday into Thursday. We’ll note the cooler temperatures tomorrow as highs only reach the middle to upper 70s.  The cooler than normal temperatures will really settle into the region tomorrow night and Thursday, continuing for the big 4th of July holiday.  Some outlying communities may fall into the upper 40s Friday morning!

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2.)  Arthur…What’s now Tropical Storm Arthur will likely continue to strengthen in the days ahead and potentially come too close for comfort to the NC Outer Banks around the upcoming holiday.  By the time Arthur is along (or just offshore) the NC coastline, he may be packing hurricane force winds.  Certainly, plenty of rough seas are to be had up and down the mid Atlantic coast into the Northeast coastal waters for the upcoming long holiday weekend.

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3.)  Continued Active Pattern…Though we’ll enjoy some much needed dry weather as we cool things down, an active time of things will return early next week, including multiple storm chances.

Additionally, we don’t forecast any sort of significant heat for the foreseeable future.  In fact, we may “enjoy” another round of unseasonably cool air by the middle to latter parts of next week, as projected by the ESRL/PSD upper air pattern above.

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4.)  Thoughts Turning To Fall & Winter…Part of what we provide here are thoughts on the seasonal and long range, including a variety of model data that may argue for, and against, our seasonal ideas (have to keep an open mind and be sure not to “model hug” any sort of data set).  The latest JAMSTEC ideas have to make those eastern winter lovers smile…

As we transition from fall to winter, the model suggests a weak, to borderline moderate, El Nino progresses into a Modoki ENSO event (read more HERE about the differences between an El Nino event and an El Nino Modoki event).  Combine this with the warmer than normal north-central and northeastern PAC waters and the players are, at least, on the field for a colder than average east- particularly southeast.

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Pure speculation at this point, and it should be pointed out that this model struggled on the cold winter last year at this time.  Instead of the cold winter we experienced, it’s 2013 June forecast for December-February 2013-2014 was a warm one.  We’ll keep a close eye on the trends through late summer into fall.

An important note- as opposed to looking into the flip-flopping forecast temperature regime at this juncture, focus more on the projected oceanic patterns.  Time will tell, but even though we’re only into early July, know that we continue to formulate some early thoughts and ideas on the upcoming fall and winter…

Have a relaxing night and God Bless!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/tuesday-night-weather-rambles/

Not Out Of The Woods Just Yet…

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While we’re kicking the day off on a more pleasant weather note when compared to that of Monday, we’re still not out of the woods just yet in regards to thunderstorm chances.  After a noisy night across the region, another round of showers and thunderstorms is likely this afternoon.  Some of the storms could reach severe levels- especially from Indianapolis and points south this afternoon.  Large hail and straight line winds are the biggest concerns.  We’ll then begin to transition to the much cooler and drier pattern for mid week.  A few instability-driven showers may pop Wednesday as cooler air spills into the region.  Thursday through Sunday will then feature dry conditions along with unseasonably cool temperatures. We’ll begin to crank the heat and humidity back up early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/01/not-out-of-the-woods-just-yet/

More On Tonight’s Severe Threat…

As we type this, a PDS (Particularly Dangerous Situation) Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been hoisted to include much of northwestern Indiana.  The concern is that the complex of storms, already responsible for damaging weather across Iowa, gains steam as it plows east and intensifies this evening.

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There’s no doubt in overall thinking that northern Indiana is at greatest risk for damaging severe weather later this evening and overnight, but we do have some concern that areas further south aren’t out of the woods.  Is there risk at being wrong in the further south idea?  Absolutely.  However, a look over the latest model data continues to suggest there’s plenty of moisture and fuel readily available.  Additionally, similar thunderstorm complexes have been known to “hook” south as they intensify racing east and short-term modeling has been known to have to play catch up at the very end in some particular cases.  That’s not something we want to play around with tonight, given what the potential is.  Will potential become reality here across central Indiana?  Big question at the moment, but one can’t be too careful with this particular situation as a rather widespread damaging wind event should expand in the coming hours.  Nowcasting will be key.  Should central Indiana get in on the stormy action it would be late this evening and overnight- midnight-ish, and after, for most.

Our best educated projection at this juncture would place north-central Indiana (a line from Crawfordsville to Muncie) and points north under the greatest risk for potential severe weather late tonight.  Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with this complex tonight.  Know that we’ll keep a close eye on things moving forward and suggest setting the weather radio on alert mode before heading off to bed this evening.  As always, have a means to get watches and warnings issued by the National Weather Service.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/more-on-tonights-severe-threat/

Severe Threat Tonight For Portions Of The Region…

We spoke Sunday of a couple complexes of thunderstorms potentially impacting the region today.  The first complex of thunderstorms is moving into northwestern portions of the state as we write this and short-term modeling is already struggling on the track of this complex.  Note the forecast radar, via the HRRR and 4km NAM, valid 8am versus the actual radar snapped at 7:30am.

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The first complex of thunderstorms will likely blow through north-central Indiana counties later this morning.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined portions of the region under a slight risk of severe today, including a heightened moderate risk across Iowa, MO, and IL.  All modes of severe weather are in play, including potential tornadoes, large hail, and damaging straight line winds.

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The latest 4km NAM shows complex number 2 erupting over Iowa later this afternoon.

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This is the complex of storms that could pose a rather active time of things across Indiana tonight.

Moisture and energy will be plentiful, meaning storms will likely remain strong to severe as they push into central Indiana.  Additionally, locally heavy downpours are a good bet.

Forecast CAPE is to be around 3500-4500 J/kg tonight when complex number 2 is eyeing the region.  In short, this means “energy” will be plentiful for storms to remain strong to severe as they blow into the region.  Think of CAPE as fuel for storms.

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Forecast PWAT, or precipitable water, shows a ribbon of 2″ streaking through the central portions of the state and suggests torrential downpours with any storm.

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Bottom line, it’ll be important to have a means of getting your latest weather information and radar trends later this evening.  The greatest severe threat to our immediate region appears to be with a straight line wind component, but as stated above, we’ll have to be on guard for all modes of severe weather.

Now casting will be key later tonight as we eye another round of potential severe weather impacting the state.  While the first complex of storms will impact northern counties this morning, it’s complex number 2 late tonight that could pack a punch across a more widespread portion of the region.  More later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/30/severe-threat-tonight-for-portions-of-the-region/

Storm Chances Remain Before We Turn Much Cooler…

Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr. Independence Day Sat.               70/ 83 72/ 88 72/ 85 63/ 78 59/ 74 51/ 77 54/ 82  Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/29/storm-chances-remain-before-we-turn-much-cooler/

Humid Weekend; Severe Potential Monday.

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A warm front is lifting north through the region this morning and rain will continue to expand in coverage this morning as the front lifts north.  Sunshine will then quickly build back into central Indiana this afternoon, along with plenty of humidity.  We’ll get back into the scattered afternoon/ evening “splash and dash” thunderstorm regime later today and again Sunday.  Looking further ahead, concern is growing about a potential severe weather event here Monday and we’ll have an additional post later this weekend discussing this potential in more detail.  For now, plan to pay special close attention to Monday’s forecast with damaging severe weather potential in play (all modes of severe weather at hand).  We still forecast a MUCH cooler, drier regime building in mid week and remaining in place through the upcoming holiday weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/28/humid-weekend-severe-potential-monday/

Quick Friday Evening Video Update

Seems like a broken record, but more showers and thunderstorms dot the central Indiana landscape this evening and will continue over the weekend, though no all day rains are anticipated.  Additionally, we’re still tracking well below normal air for the all-important holiday weekend next week.  Details in a quick Friday evening video update below!

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

A cooler than average pattern continues to look likely for the all-important July 4th weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/quick-friday-evening-video-update/

“Summery” Weekend, But Eyeing A Cool 4th!

Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed. Thr.               65/ 85 69/ 82 69/ 85 71/ 87 72/ 85 63/ 81 54/ 75  Light Light…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/27/summery-weekend-but-eyeing-a-cool-4th/

Nice Day Shaping Up!

Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed.               65/ 83 64/ 85 67/ 86 71/ 87 73/ 90 73/ 89 64/ 79  – –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/26/nice-day-shaping-up/

Overall Drier, But Rain Chances Remain…

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               65/ 83 61/ 83 63/ 85 68/ 86 69/ 88 71/ 89 71/ 90  Light –…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/06/25/overall-drier-but-rain-chances-remain/

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