Category: T-storms

Aug 09

Lots Of Clouds Around, But Not Much Rain…

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65/ 80

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Widely Scattered Showers, But Most Remain Dry…Most concentrated rain and heavier rainfall totals will remain confined to southern portions of the state as an area of low pressure continues to impact the region.  Here across central Indiana, look for lots of clouds, but little in the way of concentrated rain over the weekend.  A widely scattered shower is possible today and Sunday, but most will remain rain-free.   We officially call for a high around 80 today and in the lower 80s Sunday, but want to stress there will be a wide range in highs both days across central Indiana (due to cloud cover).

Early Week Cold Front…A cold front will sweep the state late Tuesday.  Ahead of this boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon.  Low pressure will form along the frontal boundary over Indiana Tuesday before moving northeast into the Great Lakes.  This may aid in better coverage of showers and thunderstorms locally on Tuesday.  Otherwise, we’ll note a wind shift and cooler, drier air pouring back into the area Tuesday evening.

Beautiful Mid/ Late Week Stretch…A beautiful stretch of weather is on deck for the middle and latter portion of next week.  Early fall-like conditions can be expected Wednesday and Thursday, before temperatures begin to moderate Friday.

Looking a bit past the 7-day forecast shows our next storm system taking aim on the region next weekend.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  0.00″
Widely scattered showers will be possible this weekend across central Indiana. More concentrated, heavier, rain is on tap across southern portions of the state.

Widely scattered showers will be possible this weekend across central Indiana. More concentrated, heavier, rain is on tap across southern portions of the state.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/09/lots-of-clouds-around-but-not-much-rain/

Aug 06

Mostly Cloudy With Afternoon Shower Chance…

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63/ 81

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Watching Storms To Our Northwest…Fog is locally dense in many communities across central Indiana this morning and it’ll take a couple hours to burn off.  Plan for extra drive time on your way to work and school.  Once the fog burns off we’ll look at mostly cloudy skies today along with the chance of showers this afternoon.  A complex of thunderstorms is off to our northwest this morning and the general track will take this complex of showers and storms into our general area later this afternoon in a weakened form.  Not everyone will get wet, but rain chances will be around this afternoon and evening.

Friday Battle…Forecast models continue to struggle with exact heavy rain placement Thursday night into Friday, mainly due to how they handle an area of high pressure to our north.  Thinking here continues to suggest we’re under the gun for a rather rainy Friday, but must maintain this is a lower than normal confidence forecast.  Central and southern Indiana appears most at risk for locally heavy rainfall, including some 2″ totals somewhere in the aforementioned region.  Widespread 0.75″-1.25″ amounts remain a good bet.

Increasing Sunshine This Weekend…Sunshine will be welcome after a rather gloomy work week.  We forecast high pressure to build in and supply partly cloudy and pleasant conditions this weekend before rain chances return early next week.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We'll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.

We’ll keep an eye on showers and thunderstorms to our northwest this morning. Forecast high resolution data points to this arriving into central Indiana in a weakened form this afternoon.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/06/mostly-cloudy-with-afternoon-shower-chance/

Aug 05

Turning More Unsettled…

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63/ 83

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Cold Front Just North…A cold front will slowly sag south into central Indiana over the next 24 hours before stalling nearby.  Some added energy will rotate along the boundary Wednesday and lead to somewhat more widespread coverage of thunderstorms across the region (scattered to numerous coverage).  As far as today- look for more of those splash and dash afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, including some locally heavy downpours.

Best Rain Chances Friday?  Model data continues to trend towards better chances of widespread moderate to heavy rainfall Friday in response to an area of low pressure moving along the frontal boundary.  It’s important to note that there’s still some disagreement among forecast model solutions, but we feel increasingly confident on Friday offering up more in the way of widespread rains in response to this area of low pressure.

Drying Out This Weekend…High pressure will build into the region over the weekend supply drier air and increased sunshine.  Perfect timing, heh?!

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.75″-1.25″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Before we enjoy a dry weekend, most model data is focusing on Friday for the best chances of widespread rainfall. This is in response to an area of low pressure moving along the tail end of a cold front.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/05/turning-more-unsettled/

Aug 04

Mid And Late Week Questions…

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Dry Start To The Week…High pressure will remain in control of our weather today and supply lots of sunshine and seasonable temperatures.

Rain Chances Increasing…A cold front will drop closer to the region Tuesday and will help to serve as the trigger in widely scattered shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon.  Mid week is where our questions lie and they have to do with just how far the front makes it before stalling.  A combination of the GFS, European, and Canadian forecast models shows a variety of results.  The European is most progressive and dries the region out quickly mid week with high pressure building into the area.  The Canadian is the exact opposite as it paints a wide swath of heavy rain through the heart of the state (2″ type rains through late week).  Finally, the GFS is in between the two.  We think the GFS has the best idea as of now, but we’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the next couple days.  Stay tuned.

Pleasant Weekend…We’re confident on a weekend that should feature beautiful late-summer weather conditions- lots of sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and low humidity!

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50-1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast:  0.00″
Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.

Forecast radar shows widely scattered showers and thunderstorms returning Tuesday. This is just the beginning of an unsettled few days ahead mid week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/04/mid-and-late-week-questions/

Aug 03

Sunday Morning: A Look At Where We’ve Been And Where We’re Going…

Severe clear can be used to sum up the start to our Sunday. High pressure is in control and will result in a sun-filled day with temperatures trying their best…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/03/sunday-morning-a-look-at-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/

Aug 01

Unsettled 1st Half Of The Weekend…

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60/ 81

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Upper Level Disturbance…An upper level disturbance will help lead to better coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity later this afternoon and again Saturday.  While everyone won’t get wet, more neighborhoods can expect to see a passing storm than the past couple of days.  Temperatures will remain below seasonal levels.

Drying Out And Warming Up…We’ll build a drier and warmer picture into your forecast for the back half of the weekend on into the first half of the new work week. High pressure should supply a partly cloudy sky and while temperatures will moderate from the cool readings of late, they certainly won’t be too hot for early August.  All-in-all, very comfortable readings can be expected with lots of sunshine.

Watching A Potential Late Week Storm…Forecast model guidance is a bit inconsistent at this time period, but we’re still eyeing the next chance of showers and thunderstorms towards the end of next week. More details to come as we move forward.

7-Day Precipitation Outlook:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Upper level energy will move overhead late today and Saturday and help lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Upper level energy will move overhead late today and Saturday and help lead to better coverage of showers and thunderstorms.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/01/unsettled-1st-half-of-the-weekend/

Jul 31

Focusing On Saturday…

Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue. Wed.               58/ 80 60/ 81 60/ 81 59/ 82 62/ 84 63/ 86 66/ 87     …

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/31/focusing-on-saturday/

Jul 30

Continued Cooler Than Normal; PM Showers

Wed. Thr. Fri. Sat. Sun. Mon. Tue.               56/ 77 55/ 79 58/ 81 58/ 81 58/ 81 56/ 83 57/ 85  0.05″-0.10″ 0.05″-0.10″…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/30/continued-cooler-than-normal-pm-showers/

Jul 27

Sunday Morning Weather Rambles…

Good morning and happy race day Indy! This morning’s visible satellite shows our cold front off to the northwest still. The pre-dawn storms have exited to the southeast, but we…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/27/sunday-morning-weather-rambles/

Jul 26

Ingredients In Place For A Significant Severe Weather Episode.

Quick update this morning, but a more extensive discussion will hit the site later this afternoon/ evening.

An initial round of strong to severe thunderstorms will move through central Indiana this morning as a warm front crosses the state. After morning storms rumble through central Indiana the majority of the day will be rain-free and turn downright hot and muggy.  An oppressive feel to the air will develop this afternoon as dew points rise into the 70s.  We’ll then target another (more widespread and intense) outbreak of severe weather late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed the region under a moderate risk of severe weather today:

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The ingredients are in place for a significant severe weather episode later tonight…

Big picture overview:

An autumn-like cold front will slice into a very warm, humid, and unstable air mass Sunday.  Individual disturbances out ahead of the cold front will combine with ingredients listed below to potentially lead to a rather widespread and dangerous severe weather outbreak tonight.

Additionally, short term model data forecasts…

  • CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy and an ingredient of what helps fuel a thunderstorm) to reach 4000-5000 J/kg. Anything over 2000 is enough to lead to strong storms should other factors be in place.
  • Dew points to climb into the lower and middle 70s.
  • Precipitable water to reach 2.5″ (suggests a flash flood threat and local microburst potential)

The greatest concern has to do with the potential of a widespread damaging wind event late tonight into the wee morning hours Sunday, but concern is also present that a couple of super cells could develop in advance of the more widespread complex of storms.  Within these super cells, an opportunity is there for large hail and a tornado potential and we’ll closely monitor this as well.

Much more later this afternoon!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/07/26/ingredients-in-place-for-a-significant-severe-weather-episode/

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