Category: T-storms
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Hail, Heavy Rain, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 19, 2014
Highlights of tonight’s video: Strong to severe storms Active pattern continues Serious weekend heat Tropics turn active PS: We continue to experience technical issues with a slight lag on audio/…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/19/strong-to-severe-storms-big-heat-and-tropics/
A look at some of the latest data hot off the press suggests we remain under fire for the potential of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms late afternoon into the evening hours. Initial activity could fire as early as 3-4 o’clock across western sections. The latest HRRR forecast radar (valid at 4pm) shows an advancing line of strong, and possibly severe, storms pushing east.
Again, the primary threat is damaging wind, but a couple hail reports will also be possible.
As of the 12 o’clock hour, a complex of thunderstorms sits to our west across western/ central portions of Illinois. We’ll keep a close eye on this complex as it continues pushing east and likely intensifies in a hot, humid, and unstable air mass over the next few hours. Please plan a way to keep abreast of the latest radar and local media this afternoon and evening as storms move in.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/19/still-focused-on-this-evening-for-severe-storm-potential/
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Filed under Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, Heavy Rain, NAEFS, NAM Model, Rain, Severe Weather, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 18, 2014
Tonight’s video update highlights:
- Tuesday severe threat
- Big-time weekend heat
- Cooler pattern to wrap up August
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a risk of severe weather Tuesday across the state.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/18/severe-weather-threat-tuesday/
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Mostly Dry Start To The Work Week…Dense fog is around in spots this morning, particularly northwest of the city. Otherwise, a broad circulation around a departing area of low pressure may help spark an isolated shower or thunderstorm across east-central parts of the state this afternoon. The key word here is “isolated,” however, and most will remain rain-free today.
Better Rain/ Storm Chances…Details on timing are still murky, but we forecast better rain and storm chances Tuesday afternoon on through the mid week period. With all of the moisture in the air, locally heavy downpours can be expected. The nature of the showers and thunderstorms will be what you would expect this time of year- scattered, meaning not everyone will see beneficial rains.
Serious Heat And Humidity…Temperatures will reach the hottest levels of the summer late week into the weekend. Plenty of humidity will be in place as well and conditions may warrant watches, warnings, or advisories for the heat and humidity Friday-Sunday. In a summer that’s spoiled many of us with unseasonably cool conditions, we’ll make up for at least a portion of lost time over the upcoming weekend.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
While today will be mostly dry, better chances of scattered thunderstorms lie ahead Tuesday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/18/the-heat-is-on/
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More Like Summer…The upper air pattern this week will be unlike what we’ve seen the majority of the summer. A ridge of high pressure will expand across the southeast region and build northwest. Meanwhile, a trough and associated cooler air mass will impact the northern Rockies and northwest region.
Low pressure will dominate our sensible weather today with lots of clouds and widespread rain downstate. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will impact central portions of the state. As we progress into the work week, we’ll have to remain on our toes for thunderstorm complexes that may ride the periphery of the expanding hot dome to our south. This will keep things rather active and unsettled through the forecast period.
The other topic of interest will be our temperatures. Whether we crack the official 90 degree mark or not is yet to be seen, but it’ll certainly feel very hot and humid around these parts through the week, especially the back half of the week. “Air you can wear” will be the weather theme this week.
7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.50″-2.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Cool shifts northwest this week while heat builds across the south and central.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/17/active-week-ahead/
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Filed under Forecast, Forecast Discussion, HRRR, Jet Stream Discussion, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Videos
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August 16, 2014
Happy Saturday afternoon to all! This evening’s video covers what continues to look like an active weather pattern, including multiple rain chances ahead for the upcoming week. We also discuss the upper air pattern and the expanding area of heat.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/talking-heat-humidity-and-rain/
Some are waking up to the pitter-patter of rain drops this morning and this is a sign of what’s ahead this weekend. While it won’t rain the entire time, most folks will see beneficial rainfall over the weekend. In this case, rain is a good thing, as we’re running under normal rainfall totals month-to-date by 1.23″.
Morning showers will push through the region before dry conditions return late morning into the early afternoon. Scattered showers will then again “dot” the central Indiana landscape this evening before potentially a more widespread rain moves in overnight.
Forecast radar at 10am:
Forecast radar at 6pm:
Heavier rainfall may push in overnight from the west as low pressure draws closer…
Forecast radar at 10pm:
Sunday will have a more humid feel to the air and scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain in our forecast:
This is only the beginning of a rather unsettled week ahead, including multiple rain and storm chances. Widespread upcoming 7-day precipitation totals range between 1.5″ and 2″, but locally heavier totals can be expected.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/16/unsettled-weekend/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, NAM Model, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
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August 14, 2014
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Reinforcing Cool Air Blowing In…A reinforcing push of cool air is blowing into town today and will result in a downright chilly night ahead (especially considering the time of year). A couple showers can still be expected across south-central parts of the state, but won’t amount to much. The big news will be the chilly temperatures tonight as we forecast upper 40s officially in the city and low to mid 40s across northeastern suburbs. Highs will only climb into the middle 70s with lots of sunshine Friday.
Warmer And More Unsettled…Temperatures will moderate into the weekend, but we’re also going to introduce rain chances back into the picture. Most of Saturday will remain rain-free, but we can’t rule out scattered showers and thunderstorms as the first in a series of disturbances tries to overcome initial dry air in place. Better rain and storm chances will prevail Sunday.
Heavy Rain Next Week…Forecast rainfall numbers continue to rise next week as a series of weather makers impacts central Indiana. A good consensus would place 1.5″ to 2″ of rain down, with locally heavier totals. Stay tuned as we fine tune timing.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″-2″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
We’re enjoying another colorful sunrise across central Indiana this morning. John Salewicz snapped this scenic photo earlier this morning. Thanks, John!
Throw an extra blanket on the bed tonight! Temperatures will dip into the mid to upper 40s for many.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/14/throw-an-extra-blanket-on-the-bed-tonight/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Fog, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
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August 11, 2014
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Air You Can Wear…We’re awaking to lots of fog and very muggy conditions. Dew points remain in the upper 60s and lower 70s (very oppressive)! A shower or thunderstorm will be possible really at any time today, but most likely this afternoon as the first of two cold fronts drops into the region. Similar to yesterday, locally heavy downpours will certainly be possible with all of the moisture in the air.
A secondary cold front will blow through Tuesday with a continued chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms. We’ll get in on a much cooler and drier air flow Tuesday evening and this will set the stage for a very pleasant rest of the work week, including below normal temperatures into the weekend.
Warming Up; Chance Of Storms…Temperatures will moderate and we’ll introduce showers and thunderstorms into your forecast Sunday. Early thinking on next week suggests a potentially unsettled (stormy) one, but warmer than average.
7-Day Precipitation Outlook:
- 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″-1.00″
- 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
Precipitable water values will once again approach 2″ today and assist in locally torrential downpours around the region.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/11/feeling-tropical-now-but-cooler-air-coming/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Flooding, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, GFS, Heavy Rain, HRRR, NAM Model, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Weather Videos
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August 10, 2014
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to impact central Indiana, along with localized flash flooding (precipitable water values are currently above 2″ in spots and suggest localized very heavy…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/08/10/unsettled-couple-days-ahead-before-a-taste-of-fall-by-mid-week/