Category: T-storms

Oct 27

Balmy Start To The Work Week, But It Won’t Last…

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Balmy For October…A strong southerly air flow will help temperatures surge to between 75 and 80 degrees across central Indiana neighborhoods this afternoon.  Strong and gusty south winds will reach speeds of 30-35 MPH this afternoon along with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Cold Front Moves Through…A cold front will move through the area Tuesday and a line of showers and thunderstorms will move through the region late tonight into Tuesday morning out ahead of this frontal system.  Tomorrow will be a cooler day, but it won’t really be until Tuesday night when we notice the chilly air moving back into central Indiana.

Dry, Chilly Mid Week…Dry skies return along with slightly below normal temperatures as we move through the mid week stretch.

Big Push Of Cold Air…A second push of unseasonably cold air will blow in as we get set to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.  A few showers and gusty winds will accompany the chill for Halloween.  While we’re not looking at any sort of heavy rain, it may prove to be a nuisance, especially when coupled with the chill.

A killing freeze awaits Saturday and Sunday mornings with widespread lows in the 20s.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/27/balmy-start-to-the-work-week-but-it-wont-last/

Oct 26

Weekly Outlook: Big Weather Changes…

October, month-to-date, shows a reflection of cool anomalies across the Great Lakes region and wetter than normal across the central and Tennessee Valley. The week will get off to an…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/26/weekly-outlook-big-weather-changes/

Oct 26

Short-Term Headline Is The Warmth…

We’ll be back later this afternoon to discuss the big late week chill, but want to focus on the warmth of early week this morning. Today will be gorgeous- wall-to-wall…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/26/short-term-headline-is-the-warmth/

Oct 25

Beautiful Weekend, But Major Changes Waiting On Deck…

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Beautiful Autumn Weekend…Early morning clouds quickly burned off and gave way towards a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky by late morning.  That sunny theme will remain as we roll into the afternoon and the second half of the weekend, as well.  Highs this afternoon will reach into the lower 70s before a push of slightly cooler air moves in tonight that will keep us in the 60s for highs Sunday.

Warm Open To The Work Week Before Big Changes…We’ll open up our new work week with lots of sunshine and unseasonably warm (almost balmy) temperatures.  We think highs Monday afternoon make it all the way into the middle 70s.

A strong cold front has aim on the area Tuesday and will include showers and thunderstorms as the front passes.  Much cooler air will flow into the area behind the boundary for mid week.

As we get into the latter portion of the week, forecast models have a couple of different scenarios, but the common theme is a chilly one.  Whether or not the chilly air includes precipitation is yet to be determined, but we’re siding more towards the European solution for now and building light rain into our Halloween forecast as unseasonably cold air pours south.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/25/beautiful-weekend-but-major-changes-waiting-on-deck/

Oct 22

Frosty Now, But A Taste Of Indian Summer Coming…

Our immediate focus has to do with another frosty morning Thursday (many will have low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s come daybreak with plenty of frost).  That said, changes are coming as we transition from eastern troughiness to brief ridging come early week.

We’ll replace the frosty 30s with a couple days of highs in the lower to middle 70s early next week.

Upper air pattern centered on next Monday:

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We’ll flirt with 70 degrees Saturday before a Sunday “speed bump” (highs in the lower 60s), but highs Monday and Tuesday will likely be around, or above, the 70 degree mark with a breezy southwest flow.

Forecast models differ on the next round of rain, but we’ll highlight the Tuesday-Wednesday time frame for our next best chance of widespread rains and embedded thunder along with a cool down for mid and late week.

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/22/frosty-now-but-a-taste-of-indian-summer-coming/

Oct 22

Frost On The Pumpkin…

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Frosty…It’s the coldest morning for most since last May.  Frost is rather widespread here at IndyWx.com HQ this morning (southern Boone county).  Thankfully, brilliant mid-Autumn sunshine will help temperatures warm into the upper 50s this afternoon (still roughly 5 degrees below average).  We’ll do it all again tonight as lows dip into the middle to upper 30s for many outlying communities.

Weak Weather System…First, most of, if not all Thursday will be dry with increasing late day clouds.  A couple very light showers will move across central Indiana late Thursday night into early Friday.  This won’t be a big deal in the least and we’ll quickly get back to dry weather.

Nice Weekend…A nice and dry weekend awaits with moderating temperatures.  All-in-all, it’ll be a beautiful autumn weekend.

Warmer Ahead Of The Next Storm System…While temperatures will moderate into the lower 70s early next week, it’ll come at a cost and that will be our next chance of widespread rain and embedded storms.  We’ll get back to cooler air by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.25″ – 0.50″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″

John Salewicz sends in this brilliant shot of fall color that’s reaching peak across Zionsville.  Flat out awesome, John!  Thank you!

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/22/frost-on-the-pumpkin/

Oct 13

Stormy Times Today; Severe Weather Tonight…

It’s a wet and stormy start for many this morning. Despite some local downpours and embedded thunder, all of this morning’s storms will remain below severe levels. Periods of showers…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/13/stormy-times-today-severe-weather-tonight/

Oct 11

Cool Autumn Weekend; Severe Storm Potential Monday Night…

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Cool Autumn Weekend…The rest of today will feature mid and high level cloudiness, but dry conditions.  Cool north to northeast winds will blow and require jackets or sweaters if venturing outside for too long of a time.

Be sure to enjoy the brief dry weather Saturday as shower chances return as early as Sunday, particularly during the afternoon hours and on.  Moisture will begin to surge back north in advance of a storm system that will lead to some rough weather around these parts to open the new work week.

Monday Severe Potential…Gusty southwest winds will usher in a warmer and more humid feel of things Monday out ahead of our next strong storm system.  We continue to closely monitor the potential of severe weather Monday night into Tuesday morning and want to highlight the threat of damaging straight line wind potential embedded with a possible squall line.  Beforehand, showers and embedded thunder will be possible during the daytime Monday.

We note the GFS remains consistent on strong to severe storm potential Monday night into Tuesday morning while the European is more delayed (suggesting more of a threat during the day time Tuesday).  For now, we’re leaning more towards the GFS and we’ll have more on the early week severe threat Sunday.  Locally heavy rain is also a good bet during this time, including widespread 1″-1.5″, with locally heavier totals.

Taking The More Optimistic Approach…Some forecast data wants to keep considerable cloudiness and pesky light showers around into the mid week period, but for now we’re still going with the more optimistic outlook and including drier weather along with cooler temperatures for the balance of the upcoming work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1-2″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″
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We continue to highlight Monday night/ Tuesday morning for the potential of severe weather, including damaging straight line winds. Here’s what the high resolution NAM simulated radar suggests at 8p Monday local time.

 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/11/cool-autumn-weekend-severe-storm-potential-monday-night/

Oct 09

Carefully Watching Monday Night/ Tuesday For Storm Potential…

While rain and chilly air are the headlines as we wrap up the work week and open another important college football weekend (my anticipation is building rapidly for my beloved Tigers taking on a dangerous MS. State squad Saturday afternoon- WAR EAGLE, btw), our attention is continuing to focus in on the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and Tuesday morning across the region.

Forecast models continue to suggest strengthening low pressure will track northeast from MO into IL and MI Monday night into Tuesday morning.

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The region will briefly get into a warm and humid environment Monday and Monday night (plenty capable of fueling strong to severe thunderstorm development).  Temperatures in the 70s will combine with dew points in the low to mid 60s.

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A ribbon of precipitable water values will approach 2″ across the state Monday night.  This supports heavy and locally flash flood producing rainfall.  Forecast models continue to key on additional Monday-Tuesday rainfall in the 1-2″+ range.

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We’ll continue to closely monitor the data as we move forward, but at this early juncture, make a mental note to be weather-aware Monday night into Tuesday morning as strong to severe thunderstorm potential develops.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/carefully-watching-monday-night-tuesday-for-storm-potential/

Oct 09

Not The Best Of Weather To Close The Work Week…

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Not “Chamber Of Commerce” Weather…A frontal boundary will slip through the region this evening before stalling just south of Indianapolis.  An area of low pressure will move along the front Friday while chilly Canadian high pressure to our north tries to suppress things.  The battle ground will lie across central portions of the Ohio Valley.  Pack the rain gear and the cool weather attire.

Today, anticipate showers and rather gloomy conditions.  We’re not anticipating any sort of heavy rainfall across the region, but instead mostly light rain with embedded pockets of moderate rainfall.  Another push of rain will move into town Friday.  Heaviest rainfall should primarily fall along the I-70 corridor and points south Friday.  Total rainfall from today and Friday should range from 0.25″ to 0.50″ with some heavier totals possible downstate.

Not A Bad Weekend…We’ll likely get some dry time in this weekend as the region remains in between weather systems over the Saturday-Sunday period.  After a mainly dry Saturday, rain chances return Sunday.

Bigger Storm Early Next Week…A rather robust storm system will impact the region Monday night into Tuesday with heavy rain potential and the threat of strong to severe thunderstorms.  We’ll keep a close eye on things as we move through the weekend and update the forecast accordingly.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 2.00″ – 3.00″
  • 7-Day Snowfall Forecast: 0.00″ 

John Salewicz took this stellar photo of the lunar eclipse Wednesday morning.  Thanks, John!

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Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Our forecast radar products show another slug of moisture aimed at a Friday AM arrival.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2014/10/09/not-the-best-of-weather-to-close-the-work-week/

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