Category: T-storms
Things are growing a bit dry around these parts. Officially we’re down 3.25″ for the month and close to 5″ on the year. (Climate information for IND: http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=ind)
Rains the past (14) days have favored the central region, falling apart as the systems push east and northeast. Texas and Oklahoma continue to make news headlines from severe flooding. – Too much of a good thing all at once.
Officially we’re not even listed in the “abnormally dry” shading, but that very well may change with the Thursday update. Courtesy of the Regional Drought Monitor:
Anytime you go through May with a significant rainfall deficit it raises a concern for continued dry times going through summer. Dry typically breeds dry this time of year, and eventually heat. That said, a strengthening El Nino will fight the recent trend. Around these parts weak to moderate summer El Ninos tend to yield average (to slightly above) precipitation and average (to slightly below normal) temperatures. Recent trends, combined with longer term forecasts certainly prove to lead to a battle in the coming weeks and months…
Shorter term as we progress through the coming days, here’s how we currently assess rainfall coverage:
- Wednesday: Scattered- favoring eastern and southern portions of the state
- Thursday: Mostly dry
- Friday: Widely scattered
- Saturday: Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, but many dry hours, as well.
- Sunday: Scattered coverage
* Rainfall potential through the weekend: 0.50″-1″ for most, with locally heavier totals under stronger storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/26/more-on-the-rain-situation-or-lack-thereof/
Highlights:
- Strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon/ evening
- Drier skies Thursday-Friday
- Weekend cold front
Forecast radar above (courtesy of Weatherbell.com) shows our next weather concern and that has to do with an upper air disturbance moving northeast tonight into Tuesday. This will likely ignite scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. Remain weather-aware tomorrow for the possibility of these severe storms. Large hail is the big concern. Should we see morning sunshine of significance then that would “up the ante” for afternoon severe potential. We remain in a rather unsettled, warm, and humid pattern this week, but there will be plenty of dry time. Coverage of thunderstorms Thursday and Friday will be diminished from what we can expect tomorrow and Wednesday. A cold front will arrive over the weekend, helping to increase shower and thunderstorm coverage.
A blend of short and mid range computer guidance prints out an average of 1.5″-2″ of rain over the upcoming ten days. This is needed after what’s been several weeks in a row of a lack of widespread rains.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/25/strong-to-severe-storms-possible-tuesday-pm/
-
Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Spring, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
-
May 21, 2015
Highlights:
- Another chilly start
- Lots of weekend sunshine
- Rain chances continue to decrease for the Indy 500
- More humid times next week
An unseasonably chilly air mass continues to engulf much of the region (shown above). As we flip the page and head into the long holiday weekend, we’ll note moderating temperatures and increasing humidity levels once to race day. An isolated or widely scattered storm is possible Sunday, but rainfall coverage continues to diminish with each passing computer model run. Even if we do see a passing storm Sunday, it’ll likely arrive later in the evening. A more humid regime will build in here next week and we’ll keep mention of showers and thunderstorms, particularly during the afternoon and evening. We’ll highlight Tuesday and Wednesday as days with potentially the most widespread coverage of showers and storms.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/21/great-weekend-weather-ahead/
-
Filed under Canadian Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, GFS, HRRR, Indy 500, Memorial Day weekend, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather
-
May 19, 2015
Temperatures are more remenesant of early fall than late May and a stark contrast to the humid 70s to near 80 Monday. As we type this note both the 24…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/19/chilly-now-continuing-to-keep-a-close-eye-on-sunday/
Highlights:
- Spotty shower or storm today
- Much cooler Tuesday-Thursday
- Light rain chances Wednesday
- Keeping a close eye on Race Day/ Memorial Day wknd
A cold front still sits to our west and as the front passes through the region later this evening, an isolated or widely scattered thunderstorm will be possible, with best chances across the southeast portion of the state. A much cooler air mass will then filter into the region for mid and late week. A weakening disturbance may hold together just long enough to deliver some light rain Wednesday. With added cloudiness and moisture, temperatures may not even make it out of the 50s for highs Wednesday. Our next chance of rain will arrive Sunday, but this doesn’t appear to be any sort of significant event at this juncture- just a scattered afternoon shower or storm chance at this point. We’ll keep a close eye on things.
A cold front will move through the region this evening and this could spark a thunderstorm, particularly across southeastern IN.
Our next chance of rain arrives Wednesday. Factor in increased cloudiness and the unseasonably cool air mass in place and you have the makings for a rather cool, raw day.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/18/much-cooler-air-coming/
With the combination of the race and Memorial Day weekend, a busy week is ahead. Here are a few weather headlines that have our attention as we open the week:…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/17/thoughts-on-the-big-week-ahead/
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/14/touching-base-on-thursday-evening/
Highlights:
- Another chilly start
- Warmth and humidity on the uptick heading into the weekend
- More dry hours than wet this weekend
- Much cooler next week
We’ll enjoy one more beautiful day Thursday, though we’ll note an increase in afternoon cloudiness. While a shower will be possible Thursday evening (courtesy of a warm front passing through the region), it won’t amount to much as dry air will “eat away” at what will look like a rather impressive surge of moisture to our west Thursday morning. Once the warm front blows through tomorrow night, a much more humid and unseasonably warm air mass will engulf the region to wrap up the work week and head into the weekend.
A widely scattered storm will be possible, but there will be many more dry hours than wet. Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms arrives Sunday night/ Monday as a cold front presses through the region. Total rainfall potential between this weekend and Monday looks to fall in the half inch to one inch range for most. A much cooler and drier air mass returns next week (even cooler than this current air mass).
A light shower will be possible Thursday evening as a warm front lifts through the region.
Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick Friday and continue through the weekend. Prepare to sweat as dew points approach 70 degrees this weekend.
Most widespread showers and thunderstorms will arrive Sunday evening into Monday, courtesy of a cold front passing through the region.
A MUCH cooler air mass will settle into the Mid West region next week. In fact, next week’s chill looks more impressive than our current cool air mass- both from a duration perspective and absolute temperature.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/13/one-more-pleasant-day-before-warmth-and-humidity-increases/
The story through Thursday will be one summed up in two words: dry and cool! High pressure will supply beautiful weather as we head into the latter portion of the work week. (May be a good couple days to use some of that PTO :-))!
Temperatures both tomorrow morning and Thursday morning will fall into the 40s. In fact, some neighborhoods away from the city, itself, may fall to between 38-39 just before sunrise Wednesday. Unlike today, afternoon cloudiness won’t be an issue and winds will be much lighter.
Changes will ensue as we progress into the weekend thanks to our air flow shifting around to a more southerly and southwesterly direction. This will pull increasingly humid air northward and we’ll introduce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms into the central IN weather picture Friday afternoon, continuing through the weekend.
It should be noted, however, that modeling today isn’t nearly as wet and stormy as previous runs. Will this be proven to be an anomaly, or is the drier trend the correct solution? We’ll give it a couple more runs before taking things at face value, but feel confident in saying that while scattered showers and thunderstorms will be in the picture, many more dry hours can be expected as opposed to wet and stormy.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/12/cool-and-dry-through-thursday-weekend-changes/
-
Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Canadian Model, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Heavy Rain, HRRR, Rain, Spring, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm
-
May 11, 2015
Highlights:
- Much cooler and drier through Thursday
- Moisture increases this weekend
- Stormy early next week
A cold front swept through the state this evening and a much drier and cooler brand of air is filtering into IN as we type this. That cooler and drier regime will carry us into late week before moisture slowly begins to return. High pressure will shift east and allow a moist return flow Friday into the weekend. Add in a couple of disturbances and the associated forcing, combined with the increasing warmth and humidity, and the stage is set for periods of showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. It certainly won’t rain the entire time, but plan on localized heavy downpours.
A MUCH cooler air mass will greet Hoosiers out the door Tuesday morning. Even cooler air will be with us Wednesday and Thursday mornings.
High pressure will supply plentiful sunshine and cooler than normal air through mid week.
A southwesterly return flow will lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms across not only our local area, but across a widespread portion of the Plains and Ohio Valley. Furthermore, a significant severe weather outbreak appears to be a good bet across the Plains.
After a dry mid week stretch, active times return over the weekend into early next week. Localized torrential downpours are likely. Most of the 1″ to 2″ of rain forecast shown above (courtesy of the GEM model off the Weatherbell.com suite) is expected to fall early next week.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/05/11/a-much-cooler-drier-trend/
