Dec 22
Rumbles of thunder woke several folks up (yours truly included) during the overnight. This was just a teaser for what lies ahead Wednesday as we continue to think a very…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/active-wednesday-only-the-beginning/
Dec 21
Highlights:
Hard to believe Christmas week is here! Unfortunately for travelers, we’re looking at a very active stretch of weather through (and beyond) the Christmas holiday.
We’re opening the short work week with rain falling across the state this morning. Steady rains will taper to showers late morning into the afternoon before drier air invades the region for a quiet Tuesday.
Storm system number 2 blows into town Wednesday and we’re a bit concerned a strong to severe storm may even be possible around these parts Wednesday. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern. Despite the rain, a strong southerly flow will pull abnormally warm and moist air north, helping add to the ingredients for mid week storms.
Our mid week storm will swing a cold front through here Wednesday night, setting the stage for calmer and cooler (but still above normal) weather Christmas Eve – Christmas Day. As moisture returns, we’ll forecast a mostly cloudy Christmas with showers/ drizzle possibly developing as early as Christmas evening.
Another complex storm system will be with us for the weekend, but the specifics with this system are still up in the air and will require fine tuning as we draw closer. Heavy rain appears to be the biggest threat from this distance. Get the idea that we’re looking at an incredibly busy time of things? 🙂
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/21/active-stretch-of-weather/
Dec 09
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/09/changes-are-brewing-friends/
Dec 09
Highlights:
Relatively quiet weather remains in the near-term period. A fast moving disturbance will cross the state this morning and could spark a light shower or sprinkle, but we’ll get back to increasingly sunny conditions this afternoon and evening.
Moisture will begin to return as we close the week and head into the weekend, but it’s really not until the second half of the weekend that we begin looking at more widespread rain.
As a SW flow begins to transport Gulf of Mexico (GoM) moisture north, a light passing shower is possible Friday evening and Saturday.
Despite the increase in cloudiness and threat of a passing shower, it won’t keep us away from flirting with records Saturday, and note the widespread portion of the Tennessee and Ohio Valley that will also be in jeopardy of setting new records.
Source: Weatherbell.com
Much better rain and storm chances ramp up Sunday afternoon into Monday.
PWATs (precipitable water values) increase dramatically during the aforementioned time period and could help fuel locally heavy rains during that time period, particularly with embedded thunderstorms.
Cooler air will arrive early next week, but remain significantly above normal. We’ll discuss the longer range a bit later…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/09/record-warmth-coming-rain-and-storms-as-well/
Dec 07
Highlights:
A quick glance at the updated 7-day shows two things, a lack of cold air and a rather active time of things. In the near term, it remains a relatively quiet period. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots this morning (especially north-central IN) and another fast moving disturbance in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.
The big story as we move into the back half of the week is the unseasonably warm regime that will have many asking “What season are we in?” We’ll aim for the upper 50s Thursday, around 60 Friday, and upper 60s Saturday as a strong SW flow develops in advance of our next storm system
Warmth will reach it’s peak Saturday. Source: Weatherbell
While a scattered, fast moving, shower is possible Saturday, the big story will be the warmth and a gusty SW breeze.
Our storm system will grow closer Sunday and we’ll ramp up rain and storm chances accordingly during that period. Our two most trusted global models handle things differently as we progress into the Sunday-Monday time frame (strength, track, and timing), and we’ll need to continue to fine tune that particular period as we move forward. As it stands now we’ll forecast rain and thunderstorms to become widespread Sunday before colder air arrives on the backside of the storm. Stay tuned.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/07/what-season-is-this-active-pattern-develops/
Nov 17
Highlights:
Periods of rain will continue into the mid to late afternoon across central IN as “wave 2” of our current storm system moves through. We’ve added a couple simulated radar images below, courtesy of Weatherbell.com.
This is all in association with a significant autumn storm system that’s been responsible for delivering hefty snows across the Rockies, blizzard conditions across the High Plains, and severe weather across the central and southern Plains. This storm will lift northeast over the next 24-36 hours.
A third, and final, wave of moisture will push through the state Wednesday, in a weakened state from what our friends to the west will experience (where another round of severe is expected today and tonight). This is what the radar may look like mid-morning-ish Wednesday.
When all is totaled up from rain that began Monday afternoon and ends Wednesday afternoon, many locales will pick up 1.5″-2″ of needed rainfall. While significant, those numbers are lower than what originally model data implied, but we’ll take what we can get to push closer to average for November rainfall.
All eyes will then shift to our second storm system that will arrive over the weekend. There are still more questions than answers in regards to track of this next “wave” of low pressure, but with much colder air in place and pouring in behind the system, snow will fly across northern IN. As of now we forecast the majority of this event to fall in a liquid form across central IN, but even here precipitation may end as light snow showers the way things stand now. Stay tuned as we continue to fine tune the track. Regardless, much colder air will be with us to end the period.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/17/couple-storms-to-watch-and-much-colder-air/
Nov 14
Enjoy the weekend, my friends, as a big and wet storm system awaits on deck to impact early to mid week across the region.
November, so far, has followed suit of the past few months in a much drier than normal regime. Over the past (7) days heaviest rains fell across SE portions of the state. On the month so far, IND sits around 1″ below normal.
Past 7 day precipitation anomalies, courtesy of the MidWest Climate Watch.
That rainfall deficit may be eaten up over the course of a couple days as our next storm system rolls off the Rockies and into the Plains. (Track sound familiar)?
The storm will tap into the Gulf of Mexico and include a deep southerly flow plenty capable of producing a heavy rain event across the region. Note PWATs (precipitable water) nearly 300% of normal.
We target Tuesday night-Wednesday as the focal point for heaviest rain potential and model data remains firm on general consensus of 2″-3″ falling with this next storm system, including locally heavier totals.
After this next storm, attention will begin to shift towards a colder pattern setting up for late November, including Thanksgiving…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/14/big-wet-storm-system-sitting-on-deck/
Nov 13
Highlights:
Today has featured wall-to-wall sunshine and while it’s looked great from the inside looking out, that wind is still whipping! Gusts have reached 40 MPH in spots across central and northern parts of the state.
Winds will finally die down tonight and with clear skies in place a hard freeze awaits for central IN. The latest high resolution data, courtesy of Weatherbell.com, suggests mid to upper 20s tonight and we agree.
Our next big autumn storm awaits for the early and middle portions of next week. Questions remain concerning severe weather across our area, but as of now it appears the dynamics needed for severe weather, locally, will remain too far to our west. We’ll continue to monitor. Latest forecast models (Euro top and GFS bottom) have some differences with the track of our next storm- both centered on Tuesday night.
The differences with timing and track are significant and we’ll continue to keep a close eye on things.
We remain very confident on heavy rainfall potential as a prolonged southerly fetch off the GOM (Gulf of Mexico) will transport copious moisture northbound. Widespread 2″-3″ type rainfall totals are a good bet with this set up.
Longer term, we remain confident on a pattern change towards colder than normal conditions to wrap up November. Additionally, a storm system will likely cross the country Thanksgiving week and could offer up the season’s first widespread wintry “fun.”
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/13/cold-night-coming-next-big-storm-slated-for-next-week/
Nov 12
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/looking-ahead-towards-our-next-storm/
Nov 12
Highlights:
A cold front swept through the state during the predawn hours. While a few breaks of sunshine may be seen early this morning, low clouds will quickly spread back over the region.
Wind will be the big story today as we still think gusts over 50 MPH are a good bet throughout central parts of the state. Note the tight pressure gradient that remains in place across the region today into Friday. Friday won’t be AS windy as today, but still quite blustery.
Our next big weather maker will arrive during the early to middle portions of next week. Model consensus continues to highlight a hefty rain event and thunderstorms. Early numbers would suggest 2″-3″ potential. More details on our next storm tomorrow and on Twitter (@IndyWx).
Before we close this morning, we wanted to post the updated JAMSTEC seasonal outlook for the upcoming winter. As a whole there aren’t a lot of changes from previous runs. (We like to see consistency :-)).
Overall, it agrees with our forecast and strongly disagrees with any of those warm winter forecasts out there for the south and east. One note, just because the drier anomalies show up over the Ohio Valley (what you would typically expect during a moderate to strong El Nino event) doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a lower than normal snow season. Keep in mind, moisture content in snow is much less than rain.
After taking a look at things, I like where we stand with our Winter Outlook. One thing’s for sure, time will tell!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/11/12/very-windy-today-next-big-storm-next-week/