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Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/monday-evening-video-update-6/
Feb 01
Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday PM…
Highlights:
- Morning fog in spots
- Strong Tuesday storms
- Mid week snow showers
- Quiet end to the week
Strong To Severe Storms Tuesday Afternoon-Evening…Today is a day in between storm systems. We’ll deal with morning fog in spots (some freezing fog is being reported north and northwest of Indy this morning) and mostly cloudy skies. It’ll be colder when compared to the weekend, but still warmer than average.
All eyes for this forecast package remain locked on Tuesday. It’s still shaping up to be an active day, with strong to severe thunderstorms likely. We bracket 3p-11p for the most likely time frame of thunderstorms across central IN. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern, but caution a few embedded cells will be capable of producing a tornado.
Things turn much colder Wednesday and with lingering moisture, a few snow showers will be a good bet.
We turn much quieter to wrap up the week and head into Super Bowl Sunday.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/02/01/strong-to-severe-storms-tuesday-pm/
Jan 31
10 Day Ag-Weather Outlook…
10 Day AG-Weather Outlook
Issued: 01.31.16
Forecast period: 02.01.16 – 02.10.16
Focal Items:
- Plains blizzard Days 1-3
- Severe threat from the Mid South to the Ohio Valley Tuesday
- Impactful winter event developing late in the period
Summary: The forecast period will begin with strong ridging across the eastern half of the CONUS, while a significant trough digs across the west. That trough will lift northeast through the middle of the upcoming work week before re-amplifying over the upcoming weekend into early week 2 across the Plains and Ohio Valley region.
Sensible Impacts: A significant storm system will move off the Rockies and into the Plains Monday. The surface low will track northeast from SE CO Monday night into SW MI Tuesday night. To the north and northwest of the surface low, heavy snow and blizzard conditions will impact areas from CO, KS, NE, IA, MN, and WI. South and southeast of the surface low track, strong to severe thunderstorms will rumble through the lower MS Valley, TN Valley, and Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday night. All modes of severe weather will be possible, including tornadoes.
We’ll need to keep a close eye on the potential of a clipper system diving SE across the N. Plains and upper Ohio Valley over the upcoming weekend, but the bigger event appears to be a developing winter storm threat centered on the end of the period (2/8-2/10 time period). There are, obviously, a lot of details to sort through, but an impactful winter event is very possible across the Ohio Valley towards the end of the forecast period.
Temperature Anomalies: The period will open much warmer than normal, but transition cold, and eventually colder than normal by the end of the period across the forecast region.
Anomalous warmth will engulf the Ohio Valley to open the forecast period. Source: Penn State E-Wall
The pattern shifts colder than normal towards the end of the period across the Plains into the southeast. Source: Penn State E-Wall
Precipitation: A stripe of heavy snows (10″-15″) will fall from CO, NE, IA, southern MN, and WI with the initial early week storm. .5″-1.5″ of rain will fall across the Southeast, TN, and OH Valley regions (locally heavier totals where strong storm train). Overall, quieter times return mid and late week for the forecast region before the next potential strong storm develops late in the period.
For private weather consulting and more detailed ag-weather updates, please e-mail bill@indywx.com.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/31/10-day-ag-weather-outlook/
Jan 30
Saturday Weather Chit-Chat…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/30/saturday-weather-chit-chat/
Jan 30
Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…
Highlights:
- Active period of weather ahead
- Spring-like now turns much colder
- Storms in between
- Snowy February ahead?
Taste Of Spring Today, But Winter Roars Back…A quick scan over the 7-day above shows the busy times that lie ahead. Our suggestion to you? Enjoy today’s sunshine and early taste of spring! Let us worry about what lies ahead. You’re welcome! 😉
We’ll add some mid and high level cloudiness into the picture later today and those clouds will lower and thicken tonight. Tomorrow, though still warm, won’t be as nice. Look for cloudy skies, scattered showers, and breezy SW winds.
We’ll be in between systems Monday with a generally dry day and a bit cooler, though still above average for this time of year.
A strong area of low pressure will quickly move from the central Plains Monday night into the Great Lakes Tuesday night. We’ll be on the warm side of this storm’s track and will note a dramatic shift in our wind to the SW early Tuesday that will help temperatures zoom into the lower 60s Tuesday. The downside? We’ll have to monitor things closely for strong to severe thunderstorm potential.
The area of low pressure will swing a cold front through here late Tuesday night and send temperatures into a free-fall for mid week. We’ll have to watch things closely as we’ll be in an active NW flow heading into next weekend. You know the drill by now- models struggle picking up pieces of energy plenty capable of producing accumulating snow from this distance with that potentially active NW flow.
Longer term, winter fans should really like what we’re seeing. We’ll have a more extensive post on this later in the weekend, but the pattern shaping up is one that’ll feature the more sustained cold pattern (relative to normal) in the middle of the country through most of February, including the Ohio Valley. A busy interior storm track is also noted in the coming weeks. Far too early for specifics, but it’s a pattern plenty capable of leading to above normal monthly snowfall in our neck of the woods. Again, more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/01/30/taste-of-spring-today-but-winter-roars-back/
Jan 27
Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…
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Jan 27
Wednesday Morning Rambles…
January, to date, has been cold and dry, locally. Officially, Indianapolis is running 1° below normal and nearly 1″ below normal. After several relatively “boring” days, much more…
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Dec 28
Strong Winds; More Heavy Rain…
Highlights:
- Strong winds and flood threat continues
- Weak mid week system
- Much colder to open the New Year
Strong Winds And Flood Threat Remains…What an active morning across central IN! Northeast winds are already gusting around 40 MPH with periods of heavy rain this morning. Across our northern tier of counties (mainly north of a line from LAF to KOK) freezing rain and sleet is the issue this morning with temperatures below freezing.
Periods of heavy rain will continue today, and we also note the threat of embedded thunder (damaging wind risk) this evening, bracketed between the hours of 6p-8p.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Temperatures will remain cold and raw through most of the day before we see a late day rally briefly into the lower to middle 50s. It’ll be another day with a tight temperature gradient across the state, as northern IN will struggle to make it much above freezing, while southern IN approaches the upper 60s this evening.
Midnight highs Tuesday can be expected before temperatures crash.
We’ll then set our eyes towards a weak wave of low pressure that looks to deliver a light mixed bag of precipitation Wednesday morning. The freezing line will run through the central part of IN and a mixture of light snow and light rain can be expected. MUCH colder air flows into the state behind this system and sets the stage for a cold open to 2016.
Image below is courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Forecast models continue to show an expected pattern shift to all-out sustained cold and wintry conditions for mid and late winter. Note the W NA ridging developing. Additionally, blocking and a negative AO develop as mid January nears. Think this is the year without a winter? Better think again, my friends.
Image below is courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/28/strong-winds-more-heavy-rain/
Dec 23
Severe Weather & Record Warmth…
A very active weather day is in store for central IN. As we type this (6:30 am), temperatures are hovering around 60 degrees. Simply put, that’s hard to believe. We’re on our way to a record warm day, with highs in the middle 60s across central IN.
The main story, however, will be the severe weather our area may have to deal with in (2) waves this afternoon/ evening.
The Set-up: A short wave trough will eject out of the southern Plains into the Great Lakes region. A surface low and associated cold front will accompany this trough. Unseasonably warm and moist air will spread north this afternoon and evening, including surface dew points in the lower 60s. PWATs (precipitable water values) will exceed 1.25″.
The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the Slight Risk of severe for all of the state, including an Enhanced Risk across southern IN.
Timing: We think potentially (2) waves of storms will rumble through the state today. The first likely comes during the early afternoon with a potential second line of storms blowing through the area in direct association with the cold front later this evening/ tonight. Admittedly, it’s tough to pin point the second potential wave of activity until we see what/ how the first round of storms impact the local air mass.
*As always, the forecast radar products we show should not be taken verbatim. These are used for guidance in building our forecast and provide a look at what the radar may look like during a given time frame.
2p forecast radar, courtesy of Weatherbell.com
Impacts: We remain most concerned for the potential of damaging thunderstorm winds, but stress that we can’t rule out a quick spin-up tornado with this type set-up.
Most importantly, have a means of getting the latest weather information today, especially if you’re traveling. Set those weather radios to alert you of any watches or warnings that may come later today.
Looking ahead: We still forecast a significant rain event that will likely lead to flooding early next week. Model data remains very consistent on the potential of 4″-6″ of rain over the upcoming 7-day period. Afterwards, a blast of arctic air looks to invade to welcome in 2016. More on both of these events after we deal with today’s severe.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/23/severe-weather-record-warmth/
Dec 22
Tuesday Evening Video Brief: Severe Weather Possible Tomorrow.
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/12/22/tuesday-evening-video-brief-severe-weather-possible-tomorrow/