Category: T-storms

Jul 08

Friday Morning Rambles…

1.) We’ve got another warm, humid day dialed up and as a cold front moves in this afternoon, scattered strong to severe storms are possible.  We think east-central Indiana stands the greatest threat at experiencing a severe storm later this evening.

2

12.) The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the state tonight and allow a much drier and cooler air mass to push in for the weekend.  We’ll enjoy a downright pleasant feel this weekend, including lots of sunshine.  Enjoy!

33.) Dry weather should continue into early next week, but wet and stormy weather will return as early as Tuesday, continuing into the latter portions of the week.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16This is the start of what should be a rather wet period for mid and late month.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_64.) This is also a continued “transient” pattern through the end of the month, meaning we really don’t see any sort of sustained dry, hot weather in the foreseeable future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/08/friday-morning-rambles-3/

Jul 07

Thursday Morning Video Update…

Severe potential is there tonight, but how does convection to our west during the day impact the situation downstream (locally) for tonight?  We’re monitoring closely, but for the purpose of…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/07/thursday-morning-video-update-3/

Jul 05

Entering A Stormy Period…

We’re enjoying quiet times across Indiana this evening, but times are quickly changing to put us into a stormy position between Wednesday morning and wrapping up the work week.

While the overall pattern is an easy one to label from a broad scale perspective as “stormy,” the precise details are incredibly difficult to pin point much more than 12-24 hours in advance.  With that said, most of the state is very much in fair game for periods of storms (generally tracking in a NW to SE fashion) between now and the end of the work week.  Eventually, drier air will set us up for a very pleasant weekend, including lots of sunshine and cooler temperatures.  In fact, latest data still suggests we can expect to wake up to the 50s Sunday and/ or Monday morning(s).

Before we enjoy the pleasant weekend weather, the first of a series of storm complexes will approach Wednesday morning.  Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) can be a true pain for short-term modeling to handle, but the overall idea this evening is for the first of (2) complexes to impact parts of the region Wednesday morning.

This is an idea what the radar may look like around 9a.  This would be the same complex that will deal quite the blow to portions of the eastern Plains and upper Mid West tonight (localized damaging straight line winds will be an issue to our NW).  Thankfully, we expect weakening of this complex as it dives off to the SE, in our general direction.

hrrr_ref_indy_16We’ll go through a quiet period during the afternoon hours before a second surge of storms takes aim on the region tomorrow night into Thursday morning (again, understanding we’ll have to “sure up” timing as we go).

hires_ref_indy_40Additional storm complexes will follow Thursday into Friday before that drier air gets here.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

While rainfall amounts won’t be uniform, there’s the potential for some neighborhoods to get 2″-3″ of rain between now and week’s end (where storms train).

cmc_total_precip_indy_17Looking ahead, after a dry weekend and open to next week, indications point towards a return of wet and active times as we approach Day 10.  Long range ensemble data backs up the wet, stormy look nicely, and there’s really no end in sight…

MidJuly

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/05/entering-a-stormy-period/

Jul 05

Periods Of Storms Before A Pleasant Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-07-05 at 7.09.57 AMHighlights:

  • Muggy times return
  • Multiple storm chances mid/ late week
  • Strong-severe storm potential
  • Drier weekend

Air You Can Wear…A quick step out of the door this morning will quickly remind you that we’re in the heart of summer.  A tropical feel will remain through the middle and latter portions of the work week.  While an isolated shower is possible this afternoon, we should remain mostly dry across the state.

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday, and we target the chances of two round of storms- morning and night.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe, including damaging straight line winds.  Don’t be surprised if updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks place a Slight Risk into portions of the state Wednesday.

Additional storm chances will be present Thursday and Friday before a drier air mass arrives in time for the weekend.  With the drier air will also come cooler nights- lower 60s Saturday morning and upper 50s Sunday morning.  After the warm, humid time of things the next few days, the drier air mass will feel quite refreshing.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″ – 2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/05/periods-of-storms-before-a-pleasant-weekend/

Jul 03

Unseasonably Cool; Heavy Rains…

Screen Shot 2016-07-03 at 10.14.18 AMHighlights:

  • Heavy rain
  • Unseasonably cool
  • Turning warmer
  • Active, stormy time later in the week

Jacket And Rain Gear Needed…The first of two rounds of widespread, soaking rains is pushing across central IN this morning.  Periods of moderate to heavy rains will develop later tonight as round two arrives on the scene.  Localized flooding is likely tonight and Monday morning.  The overall set-up is one that features a stationary front draped across the region with ripples of energy (low pressure) moving along the boundary.  In addition to the wet weather, this will also set up quite the temperature gradient across the state today.  Here across central IN, jackets will be needed all day with highs struggling to climb much out of the middle 60s.  Downstate, temperatures will zoom into the 80s with a severe component added into the mix tonight for southern IN (with the focus primarily being straight line winds).

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Independence Day, but we’re still hopeful in thinking we begin to dry things out for the afternoon and evening.  That’s great news for the fireworks and festivities planned tomorrow evening.

We begin to heat things back up and add storms into the mix for mid and late week as the region gets into an active NW flow regime.  The potential is there for a couple of rather noisy storm complexes later this week.  We’ll keep a close eye on things.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 3.5″-4.5″ (locally heavier amounts)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/03/unseasonably-cool-heavy-rains/

Jul 01

Friday Morning Video Update: Pleasant Open To The Holiday Weekend Before Wet Times Build In…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/01/friday-morning-video-update-pleasant-open-to-the-holiday-weekend-before-wet-times-build-in/

Jun 29

Enjoy The Dry Time While We Have It…

Screen Shot 2016-06-29 at 6.18.41 PMHighlights:

  • Pleasant air in the short-term
  • Storm chances Friday
  • Widespread soaker

Looking Increasingly Wet For The Holiday Weekend…High pressure will supply continued dry times Thursday, but clouds will increase during the evening and give way to scattered showers and embedded thunder Friday. This doesn’t look like a huge deal, but don’t be surprised by rain and/ or a clap of thunder to close the work week.  That said, there will be more dry time than wet Friday.

As we rumble into the long Independence Day weekend, confidence continues to increase for a widespread soaking rain to develop.  Thankfully, Saturday still looks mostly dry, but we think clouds will be on the increase late in the day, followed by rain overspreading the region from west to east as Sunday afternoon approaches.  Widespread rain should continue into Monday.  We still have questions on timing and precise placement of heaviest rains (2″+ totals), but it’s safe to say most, if not all, of the region can expect a long-duration rain event developing Sunday.  Stay tuned.  It’ll also be cool.  Areas where heaviest rains set up Sunday likely won’t climb out of the 60s.

Drier air will return late Monday into the middle of next week, but we caution that another wet weather maker appears to have eye on the region beginning next Thursday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.5″-2.5″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/29/enjoy-the-dry-time-while-we-have-it/

Jun 28

Catching Up On Tuesday Night…

June to date is running warmer (+3.6°) and wetter (+0.71″) than normal in Indianapolis.


That said, drastic changes have taken place over the past 24 hours for the cooler and drier. In fact, as we write this, many central IN neighborhoods are enjoying temperatures in the lower 60s already at the 10 o’clock hour. An unseasonably cool night is in store with widespread low-mid 50s come Wednesday morning. (Anyone else craving fall)?!🍂


Highs Wednesday afternoon will only reach the upper 70s for most.


Our next chance of rain will arrive on scene to close the work week, however, moisture return still doesn’t look terribly impressive. We’ll continue advertising widely scattered coverage Friday. 


The plot thickens as we roll into the crucial Independence Day weekend. Latest data suggests a hefty rain storm will be in our general vicinity, but we caution many details have to be ironed out. Our forecast, locally, Sunday-Monday may differ drastically over a relatively short piece. Fine tuning on track, timing, and amounts will have to be adjusted.


GFS ensemble members also show the challenging times ahead.


Stay tuned! In the meantime, get those window opens and enjoy the weather! 

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/28/catching-up-on-tuesday-night/

Jun 27

Monday Evening Video Update…

Cooler, more refreshing times are building in.  Temperatures come mid week will have you asking “Is this late June?!”

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/27/monday-evening-video-update-8/

Jun 26

PM Strong Storms…

The morning is off to a sunny, muggy, and warm start.  Temperatures will rise into the lower 90s this afternoon, but when we look at heat indices, it’ll feel like around 100 degrees across many central IN neighborhoods.

The visible satellite shows the sunny skies in place right now, but we note the cloud deck off to the northwest.  That’s in association with a frontal boundary that will press through our region tonight.

VisA line of thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon and a few of these could be strong to severe as they push to the south.  Large hail and damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern.  We think best chances of thunderstorms across central IN will come during the mid to late afternoon hours into the early evening.

3p

6p

1

11pThe air mass is loaded with moisture today.  In fact, precipitable water values will zoom to 2″+ this afternoon and suggest the threat of torrential rainfall with any storm that develops.

2Once to Tuesday, a MUCH cooler, drier air mass will arrive on the scene and help set up an unseasonably cool close to the month.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/26/pm-strong-storms/

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