Category: T-storms

Jul 24

Unsettled, But A Better Feel Coming…

Screen Shot 2016-07-24 at 8.26.06 AMHighlights:

  • Storm chances increase tonight-Monday morning
  • Drier, cooler air on deck
  • Widespread storms Thursday

Hang In There…It’s been a long couple of days with high heat and humidity, but relief is in sight. A cold front will move through the state Monday.  Ahead of this front, a band of showers and thunderstorms will slide through Indiana.  A few of these storms could be strong with locally heavy rain.  Best chances of storms across central IN appear to arrive tonight and Monday morning, before transitioning to southern IN Monday afternoon.  Drier air will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday.

Our next rain and storm chances are dialed up for Thursday and early indications suggest this could be a fairly widespread event.  Though we’ll maintain rain chances next weekend, coverage will diminish when compared to Thursday.  Temperatures will be much more tolerable than what we’re dealing with today.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″ (Locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/24/unsettled-but-a-better-feel-coming/

Jul 21

Thursday Evening Rambles…

1.) A big ole ridge will supply oppressive heat and humidity across the Mid West this weekend.  Unseasonably hot temperatures will combine with downright “soupy” air to create heat indices between 105-110 degrees across central IN this weekend.  Take it easy and implement frequent breaks if your plans take you outdoors.

HeatIndex

2.) Similar to what we’re seeing on radar this evening, thunderstorms will also make an appearance from time to time for some.  With an atmosphere loaded with moisture, any storm that develops will be plenty capable of producing “frog straggler” type rainfall rates.  Perhaps there will be a couple periods of more concentrated storm activity, focused on late tomorrow night and early Saturday, and again late Saturday night-Sunday morning.  We’ll keep an eye on things.

LateFriNight

3.)  The pattern is one (as has been the case all summer) that’s transient and the situation that develops to wrap up July and open August is an all-too-familiar look around these parts: NW flow aloft that offers storm potential, along with seasonal to slightly warmer than average.  It’s a wet look, overall.

WetPattern

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

10-Day GFS rainfall numbers are impressive across the Mid West. Soaking rains for many. Courtesy Weatherbell.com

This is what the upper air pattern should look like as we close July- 10 days from now (hard to believe)!

July31st

4.)  Looking further ahead, the latest JMA Weeklies continue to suggest the most sustained hot pattern should remain across the west as we rumble deeper into August.  That’s not to say we won’t deal with periods of hot weather here at times, but sustained heat will be hard to come by with such a pattern…

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.29 AM

Screen Shot 2016-07-21 at 7.48.39 AM

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/21/thursday-evening-rambles-2/

Jul 20

Cranking Up The Heat…

Screen Shot 2016-07-20 at 7.25.55 AMHighlights:

  • Much more dry time than stormy
  • Heat and humidity reach dangerous levels this weekend
  • Cooler next week

Splash And Dash Storms, But Most Remain Dry…A quick glance at the forecast above may suggest wet times, but don’t let that fool you.  “Isolated” and “scattered” are key words. While we’re still keeping an eye on the potential of a more widespread complex of storms late tonight/ early Thursday, we’re far from confident on the precise location of this potential storm complex and short term modeling isn’t offering up much help.  Regardless, with such a muggy air mass in place, an isolated storm could fire anytime between now and the weekend.  There are a couple periods we’re watching for more concentrated storm potential (Friday evening and Sunday).  Timing remains fluid.

The big story with this forecast remains the heat and humidity.  Temperatures will soar into the middle 90s this weekend and when you combine those hot readings with dew points in the lower and middle 70s, dangerous conditions result for anyone with longstanding outdoor plans.  Have a means of taking frequent breaks and receiving plenty of water.  The heat and humidity this weekend will be a serious situation.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast: 

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/20/cranking-up-the-heat/

Jul 18

Stormy Start; Heat Builds Late Week…

Screen Shot 2016-07-18 at 10.07.34 AMHighlights:

  • Storms to start the work week
  • Heat and humidity build
  • Heat doesn’t last

Renewed Storm Chances Later Today…Alarm clocks weren’t needed today as a big complex of storms and heavy rain rumbled through the state during the pre-dawn hours.  Many neighborhoods received a quick 2.5″+ during the overnight and predawn hours.  As we write this, renewed thunderstorms are firing to our west and will impact portions of the state later this afternoon.  Additional hefty rains are a good bet for some.

We’ll dry things out as we rumble through the mid week stretch and while isolated storms are possible to close the week, most folks should remain dry as a big ole’ upper ridge builds over the mid west.  The big story will be intensifying hot, humid weather- centered on Friday-Saturday.  Heat indices will approach 100-105 degrees during this time frame, as well.  The good news is that forecast data points to the associated hot dome backing west and setting up shop over the Rockies to close the month and open August.  Accordingly, the hottest anomalies will shift west, as well.  We’ll be left with a NW flow aloft providing a cooler and unsettled stretch to close the month of July and open August.

Wet

The pattern to close July and open August should look rather familiar to what we’ve seen the majority of summer. NW flow aloft with frequent rain/ storm chances. Courtesy: TropicalTidbits

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/18/stormy-start-heat-builds-late-week/

Jul 17

Sunday Video Update: Storms & Heat…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/17/sunday-video-update-storms-heat/

Jul 16

Pleasant Weekend Before Storms Return…

Screen Shot 2016-07-16 at 7.24.50 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Storms return late Sunday night into Monday
  • Heat builds late next week

Refreshing Feel…A weak disturbance is tracking through central IN this morning with a band of clouds and a couple sprinkles.  That said, sunshine will quickly return late morning into the afternoon and set up a beautiful day, along with pleasant temperatures and low humidity.

Our next round of storms will arrive from the NW late Sunday night into Monday.  A few of these storms could be strong to severe and also include locally heavy rain.

Modeling disagrees on the magnitude of cooling and drier weather behind Monday’s front.  The more aggressive GFS would imply another push of pleasant air for a couple days Tuesday-Wednesday, while the European isn’t as bullish.  For now, we’ll split the difference and revisit tomorrow.

One thing that modeling does agree on is building late week heat.  Expect a hot, humid close to the work week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/16/pleasant-weekend-before-storms-return/

Jul 14

Pleasant Weekend On Deck…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/14/pleasant-weekend-on-deck/

Jul 11

Monday Morning Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/11/monday-morning-video-update-2/

Jul 10

Wrapping Up The Weekend On A Nice Note…

Screen Shot 2016-07-10 at 10.02.58 AMHighlights:

  • Dry weather continues
  • Wet, active pattern returns mid week

Beautiful Sunday…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we wrap up the weekend.  As a result, we can expect lots of sunshine and comfortable temperatures, including low humidity levels.  All-in-all, we really can’t ask for better weather this time of year.

Monday will remain dry, but the deeper we progress into the week, rain and storm chances will go up. While we include the mention of rain and storms in the forecast each day from Tuesday on, please know that it won’t rain the entire time and there will be many dry hours each day.  That said, it does appear as if we’re entering another active stretch, and fine tuning will be required to pinpoint specifics around timing and track of storm complexes in the days ahead.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/10/wrapping-up-the-weekend-on-a-nice-note/

Jul 09

Great Weekend Weather…

Screen Shot 2016-07-09 at 9.05.16 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Moisture and storms return next week
  • Another push of cool air next weekend?

Sunglasses Required…What a great feel we’re greeted with out there this morning!  Low humidity and pleasant temperatures will be with us through the weekend, along with lots of sunshine.  Sunday morning will feature many neighborhoods in the middle to upper 50s across central IN.  Mid-July, what?! 🙂

Moisture will slowly return as we back our air flow around to the SW early next week.  Additionally, we’re tracking multiple disturbances mid week that will promote increased chances of thunderstorms.

An early look at late week shows potentially another push of dry and cool air to set-up a beautiful close to the work week.  We’re getting spoiled.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/09/great-weekend-weather/

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