Category: T-storms

Nov 02

One More Warm Day; T-storm Chances Tonight…

screen-shot-2016-11-02-at-7-35-00-amThe 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook is now available.

Highlights:

  • Unseasonably warm Wednesday
  • T-storms tonight
  • Cooler close to the work week

Cold Front Arrives Late Tonight…The majority of today will be dry (and warm), but we do note some of the high resolution model data suggest we deal with an initial round of scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening (in the 4p-7p time frame).  This would be in advance of more widespread showers and thunderstorms tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday.

Cooler air will flow into the region to wrap up the work week and dry conditions will prevail through the upcoming weekend.  We note patchy frost potential Saturday morning away from the city.

Our next storm system will approach early next week.  From this distance, Election Day looks mostly dry through the daytime hours,  but shower chances will begin to increase by evening.

Longer term, model data continues to suggest we’re in line for a mid-month pattern change to cooler conditions.  While this will initially be a “step-down” (back and forth) process, the potential is on the table for a downright wintry pattern to develop by late month.  We note the GEFS (GFS ensembles) keying in on this (images courtesy of weatherbell):

Days 1-5

1

Days 6-10

2

Days 10-15

3

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/02/one-more-warm-day-t-storm-chances-tonight/

Nov 01

VIDEO: Touching base on Tuesday evening…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/01/video-touching-base-on-tuesday-evening/

Oct 19

VIDEO: Quick Wednesday Evening Video Update…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/19/video-quick-wednesday-evening-video-update/

Oct 18

VIDEO: Colder Changes To Close The Week; Wet Thursday Ahead…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/18/video-colder-changes-to-close-the-week-wet-thursday-ahead/

Oct 16

Remarkable Summer Feel Through Mid Week; Late Week Changes…

Before we talk about the warmth, we have some showers and embedded thunder to deal with across parts of the region today.  Best rain chances today will be along and north of I-70, but a few showers could scoot south later this afternoon.  We note most concentrated rain should fall through the early afternoon hours before moving out to allow for a dry evening.

Forecast radar 1p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 12p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Forecast radar 2p, courtesy of Weatherbell.com

We get back to a dry pattern Monday and Tuesday.  Along with the dry conditions, unseasonably warm temperatures can be expected.  Along with the summer-like feel, very strong southwest winds will be noted (gusts to 30-40 MPH).

A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

A strong SW flow will promote 30-40 MPH gusts early week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

The warmest temperature anomalies will be located over the Ohio Valley this week. Courtesy of Tropicaltidbits.com

Highs Monday and Tuesday will top out in the lower to middle 80s and rival records across central IN.  While that’s impressive enough, overnight lows of 65-70 are almost unheard of.

Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Overnight lows Tuesday morning will be close to 70 degrees. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

Cooler air will begin to move in by late week as a trough replaces the warm ridge.  While we’re very confident on the much cooler feel, details in regards to the specifics around rain timing and amounts remain “muddy” at best.  We’ll forecast best rain chances to arrive Thursday, but caution this may have to be fine tuned as we move forward.  Highs that were in the 80s for early week will crash late week (upper 50s to lower 60s).

European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

European ensemble shows the cool and unsettled late week pattern. Courtesy of Weatherbell.com

As of now, next weekend looks dry and cool, but it was only yesterday that rain chances looked like they may continue into the early portions of the weekend. Stay tuned.  As previously mentioned, temperatures will be much cooler (upper 30s to lower 40s for lows and lower to middle 60s for highs).

Complete 7-day will be posted later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/16/remarkable-summer-feel-through-mid-week-late-week-changes/

Oct 13

VIDEO: An Active Autumn Pattern Is Here…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/13/video-an-active-autumn-pattern-is-here/

Oct 11

Wednesday Night Storms Before A Much Cooler Push Of Air…

screen-shot-2016-10-11-at-7-29-43-amHighlights:

  • Shower and storm chances increase Wednesday night
  • Coolest air so far this season to close the work week
  • Warm push of air early next week

Nice Today Before Wednesday Night Storms…Mid and high level cloudiness will continue to scoot through the Ohio Valley today. While we noted a few sprinkles during the predawn hours, the air remains dry and we should be rain-free today with increasing PM sunshine.

Wednesday will turn increasingly breezy as the day progresses and a cold front will help kick up scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night into the early morning hours Thursday.  Behind the front, the coolest air so far this season will press southeast and set us up for a chilly close to the week.

The cool air won’t stay around long as we flip our air flow back to the south over the weekend.  Showers are a good bet Sunday followed by a gusty south wind and a summer-like high in the lower 80s Monday.

A couple of notes:  It’s beginning to be that time of year again when we have to get used to the wind.  As the jet continues to mature, storm systems will become more frequent as we go deeper into fall.  Strong winds are a given and the increasingly busy nature of the pattern is a signal of changes brewing.  While we’re still a couple weeks away from a wholesale pattern change, don’t be surprised if we undergo a rather dramatic flip in the pattern as October gives way to November.  This sure doesn’t look like last year in any way, and, in fact, it’s easy to argue it’s the exact opposite when it comes to early season cold and potentially wintry weather…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/11/wednesday-night-storms-before-a-much-cooler-push-of-air/

Oct 01

Welcome To October…

screen-shot-2016-10-01-at-10-02-29-amHighlights:

  • Improving weekend weather
  • Dry, warmer open to the work week
  • Strong late week cold front

Slow Improvements…The “cut off” upper low that’s plagued the region for the past few days will slowly begin to lift north this weekend.  Eventually it’ll get absorbed into the westerlies and get outta’ here!  The end result will be a slowly improving weekend.  Rain coverage will be greater today than Sunday, but less than Friday! 🙂  Slow moving showers and embedded thunder will be most numerous this afternoon before slowly diminishing tonight.  While we’ll have to maintain mention of a shower Sunday, most folks will remain dry.

The work week will get off to a dry start along with moderating temperatures. Highs by mid week will reach the lower 80s as a southwesterly air flow dominates ahead of an approaching strong autumn front.

While timing still needs to be fine tuned, we’re focusing in on the cold front passing through central IN Friday morning.  Ahead of the boundary, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected followed by an abrubt NW wind shift and a MUCH cooler air mass for the weekend.  Speaking of cool, it wouldn’t surprise us to see some neighborhood lows into the upper 30s next weekend.

It is October, after all…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/10/01/welcome-to-october/

Sep 29

Cool, Damp Open To The Weekend…

As we get set to open the weekend, our weather pattern remains unchanged from the past couple of days. The Ohio Valley will continue to be dominated by a cut off area of low pressure sitting and spinning overhead. Unseasonably cool air, along with periods of showers will be the result. Similar to Wednesday, stronger showers could contain small hail, particularly during the afternoon.

Steadiest and most concentrated rain appears to come during the morning hours Friday. Here’s what the radar may look like predawn and mid morning Friday. Rain will be tracking west or southwest (pivoting around the upper low).

Additional scattered showers and embedded thunder will remain in our forecast Saturday.


In general, additional rainfall should be in the 0.50″-1″ range, but there will be isolated heavier totals under more persistent rain bands.


It’ll be a continued cool stretch with highs both Friday and Saturday in the mid 60s (at best).

The second half of the weekend certainly looks like the better of the two, but we caution that these cut off lows can be fickle and surprises can result in regards to timing. At any rate, a drier pattern will build in early next week, along with moderating temperatures. 

Looking ahead, a significant storm system looms just beyond the 7-day that will require our attention in the days ahead.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/29/cool-damp-open-to-the-weekend/

Sep 28

Rinse And Repeat…

screen-shot-2016-09-28-at-8-43-04-pmHighlights:

  • Continued unsettled and unseasonably cool
  • Drier time arrives Sunday
  • Moderating temperatures early next week

Rinse And Repeat Pattern…Our weather pattern will be dominated by a “cut off” upper low through Saturday.  While it won’t rain the entire time, we’ll maintain mention of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms each day.  It still appears as if Friday will serve up the most widespread rain coverage.  Similar to today, stronger thunderstorms could contain small hail, especially during the afternoon hours.  Temperatures will remain significantly cooler than normal through the period.

A drier regime will build in late this weekend into early next week. Ridging will continue to expand as we move into mid week with needed dry time and moderating temperatures.  Our next storm system appears to be slated for an arrival next Thursday.  Storms will accompany the front followed by much cooler air.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/09/28/rinse-and-repeat/

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