Category: T-storms

Nov 28

Periods Of Rain; T-storm Chance Tonight…

screen-shot-2016-11-28-at-7-57-02-amHighlights:

  • Rain turns heavy tonight; Storm threat, too
  • Trending colder to open December
  • Next storm arrives over the weekend

A Wet Kick-Off To The Work Week…Moisture is streaming northeast over the Hoosier state this morning and this is really just the beginning of a wet and, eventually, stormy open to the work week.  We may see a brief “lull” in the rain around the lunchtime hour, but heavy rain will increase in coverage this evening and continue into tonight.  Additionally, we’ll introduce thunder into the mix this evening.  In fact, some of the higher resolution, short-term, forecast models hint at a skinny line of thunderstorms that may impact central IN tonight.  Strong wind gusts are of biggest concern with this line.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 8p.

8phrrrConsiderable cloudiness will remain Tuesday and Wednesday, but both days will be much drier than today.  A secondary wave of low pressure will move northeast along a pressing cold front Wednesday.  Best rain chances Wednesday will fall across eastern sections of the viewing area.

The second half of the week will trend colder.  A sprinkle or flurry is possible Thursday.  The next storm we’re tracking will arrive over the weekend.  Clouds increase Saturday and Sunday offers up the next good chance of rain.  Though details are sketchy at this point, the prospects of a storm system with more wintry significance may arrive just beyond the 7-day period.  Stay tuned.  December is looking quite active and wintry…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/28/periods-of-rain-t-storm-chance-tonight/

Nov 26

Sunshine Returns This Weekend; Heavy Rain Event Looms…

screen-shot-2016-11-26-at-8-16-29-amHighlights:

  • Sunshine finally returns
  • Big time rain maker early next week
  • Trending colder to open December

Sunshine Slowly Returns…We’ve been socked in with clouds, chilly conditions, and overall gloomy weather for the past several days.  Thankfully, sunshine will eventually return this weekend.  Today has started with overcast skies, but slow improvements should provide an increasingly sunny sky as the day wears on.  Seasonable temperatures can be expected today.

The second half of the weekend will feature more in the way of sunshine, but our next storm system will be awaiting on deck by this point.  Southwest winds will turn increasingly breezy by the PM and clouds will quickly increase yet again.  Those clouds will yield rain as early as the wee morning hours Monday (well before sunrise).  Periods of heavy rain can be expected Monday and even a thunderstorm by afternoon/ evening.

Most of the heavy rain will fall Monday, but we’ll maintain mention of showers in our forecast Tuesday and Wednesday. A second wave of low pressure will develop along a pressing front the middle of next week and spread moisture northeast. The “leader” storm system is much easier to forecast than the “follower” in this scenario.  The details are muddy at this point concerning the extent of how far west precipitation can make it.  Know that we’re keeping a close eye on things.  For the sake of this particular forecast, we’ll include mention of rain showers mixing with snow showers as colder air moves in Thursday.  Stay tuned.

The end of the week will feature a colder trend as we usher in December.

One final item on the agenda this morning- with this being Iron Bowl Saturday, we can’t leave you without wishing you an energetic WAR EAGLE!

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 1.25-1.75 (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/26/sunshine-returns-this-weekend-heavy-rain-event-looms/

Nov 23

Happy Thanksgiving; Time To Get Used To An Active Pattern…

screen-shot-2016-11-23-at-6-17-49-pmHighlights:

  • Foggy start to Thanksgiving; Chilly
  • Milder start to the week
  • Big storm next week

Happy Thanksgiving…Before we dive into the upcoming active period of weather ahead, we want to wish you and yours and very happy and blessed Thanksgiving holiday.  We here at IndyWx.com are so thankful for your friendship over the years and the countless weather reports and photos you send in on a daily basis.  Find time to relax and enjoy the important things in life this holiday season.

After a wet, raw, and dreary Wednesday, Thanksgiving will be drier.  Unfortunately, a large chunk of the day will likely feature low clouds, areas of fog, and drizzle, especially in the morning.  Reinforcing cool air will blow in as shoppers hit the stores Friday, along with gusty winds and a possible sprinkle.  Saturday will be chilly and blustery.  After a Sunday morning freeze, moderating temperatures will develop as we close the weekend and open the new work week.  This will be courtesy of SW winds ahead of a significant storm system that’s brewing next week.

Clouds will increase late Sunday and rain will follow Monday.  Rain will increase in coverage and intensity and we’ll also add in the potential of strong storms into the mix Tuesday.  (More details to come once we move closer, concerning strong to potentially severe prospects Tuesday).  Much colder air will pour into the region behind the storm system and allow precipitation to mix with wet snow Wednesday.

This is only the beginning of what looks to be a very stormy and increasingly cold weather pattern.  Longer-term model data suggests this will be the story throughout the majority of December.  Our call of a snowier than normal December remains…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 2.50″-3.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/23/happy-thanksgiving-time-to-get-used-to-an-active-pattern/

Nov 18

VIDEO: Stormy By Evening; Much Colder This Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/18/video-stormy-by-evening-much-colder-this-weekend/

Nov 17

Warm Today; Cold Changes Await…

screen-shot-2016-11-17-at-8-48-32-amHighlights:

  • Breezy and warm close to the work week
  • T-storms Friday evening
  • Cold weekend with Saturday flurries

Changeable Weather…If you don’t find a way to get outside today something is wrong.  Let the boss know IndyWx.com gave you permission to spend an extended lunch outdoors today. 🙂  Sunny skies and unseasonably warm temperatures will be with us through the day, along with an increasingly gusty afternoon wind.

Clouds increase Friday and showers develop Friday evening.  A couple of stronger thunderstorms are also possible as the front sweeps through the state.  While we’re not forecasting a widespread severe wind potential, one or two strong and gusty storms are possible.  The front will hit like a wall Friday night and feature an abrupt wind shift and plummeting temperatures.  That high Saturday in the lower 40s will be predawn as most of the day will be spent in the 30s with gusty winds and snow flurries.  Steadier snow squalls will be found across north and northeast IN.

Dry, chilly weather will be with us for the remainder of the weekend, continuing into the beginning of the Thanksgiving week ahead.  Our next storm system is slated for the big travel day Wednesday.  Expect showers and gusty winds followed by colder weather for Thanksgiving, itself.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Trace
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/17/warm-today-cold-changes-await/

Nov 16

VIDEO: Unseasonably Warm Thursday-Friday; First Flakes Of The Season This Weekend…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/16/video-unseasonably-warm-thursday-friday-first-flakes-of-the-season-this-weekend/

Nov 15

Big Changes Loom…

screen-shot-2016-11-15-at-7-47-52-amHighlights:

  • Mostly sunny and pleasant into mid week
  • Gusty SW winds usher in near-record warmth to close the work week
  • Friday night showers and storms
  • Coldest air and first flakes of the season ahead

Brace For Changes…The short-term remains very quiet and pleasant.  If you haven’t already, we suggest knocking out that remaining yard work for the season, or get a jump on the outdoor Christmas lights!  (Rude changes loom).

Winds will turn gusty out of the southwest Thursday, especially by afternoon.  These strong and gusty SW winds will top 40 MPH Thursday into Friday, but also serve to help give temperatures a boost.  Highs both Thursday and Friday will be near record levels.

We should remain dry through the daytime Friday, but a band of showers and embedded thunder will rumble through the state Friday night as a strong cold front passes through.  Behind the cold front, expect an abrupt wind shift to the northwest and falling temperatures through the day Saturday.  Heavier jackets and coats will be required as wind chills in the 20s fall into the teens Saturday night into Sunday morning.  Left-over, “backlash” moisture will fall in the form of flurries and scattered light snow showers.  Further north, light accumulations of snow are possible across northern IN snowbelt communities.

Cold, dry weather will continue into early next week.  Looking further ahead, another storm system looms around Thanksgiving.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/15/big-changes-loom/

Nov 14

Taste Of Winter This Weekend…

A rather pleasant, benign week of weather will transition to a rude feel by the weekend.

A cold front will sweep through the state Saturday morning and will help the season’s first blast of true, winter-like air plunge southward over the weekend, into early next week.  Ahead of the cold front, a band of showers and perhaps a clap of thunder will track east.  As of now, rainfall totals don’t look particularly impressive (0.10″-0.25″).

Shower chances will increase Friday evening. Courtesy of weatherbell.com

Shower chances will increase Friday evening. Courtesy of weatherbell.com

Ahead of the front, winds will gust out of the southwest Thursday afternoon and Friday (in the 30-40 MPH range), but will shift around to the northwest Saturday (same 30-40 MPH potential) and drive a much colder air mass southeast.  Temperatures will fall through the day Saturday and temperatures will grow cold enough Saturday evening into Sunday to allow “backlash” moisture to fall as scattered snow showers and snow flurries.  Further north, in the snowbelt regions, heavier lake-generated snow bands and squalls will develop over the second half of the weekend.

The season's first true lake effect snow outbreak will occur this weekend. Courtesy of weatherbell.com

The season’s first true lake effect snow outbreak will occur this weekend. Courtesy of weatherbell.com

Wind chills will fall into the teens Sunday night into Monday morning.

gfs_windchill_indy_30

Longer term, data continues to suggest we continue to transition, overall, towards a colder and stormy pattern in the targeted Thanksgiving to Christmas period.  More on that later this week…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/14/taste-of-winter-this-weekend/

Nov 13

Frosty Mornings; Late Week Storm System…

screen-shot-2016-11-13-at-10-19-07-amHighlights:

  • Dry stretch of weather remains
  • Late week storm system offers up rain; t-storm chances
  • Much colder next weekend

Frosty Mornings To Start The Week…High pressure will dominate our weather pattern to open the new week.  As such, skies will remain mostly sunny and temperatures will be very pleasant.  Monday morning will feature the third morning in a row with sub-freezing air.  Expect another frosty start to the day, including outlying neighborhoods into the 20s yet again.

Looking ahead, our weather will remain rather uneventful until Thursday.  Dry conditions will remain, but southwest winds will become increasingly gusty by the afternoon.  This is in advance of an approaching storm system that will deliver showers, and perhaps a clap of thunder, Friday evening.  Timing will have to be fine tuned as we progress through the week.  Behind the boundary, much colder air will pour into the region on gusty northwest winds next weekend.  In fact, the air will grow cold enough to potentially lead to scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday in the left over “back lash” moisture.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/13/frosty-mornings-late-week-storm-system/

Nov 02

Wednesday Evening Rambles…

A rainy and (at times) stormy night is ahead for central Indiana as a cold front approaches.


While scattered thunderstorms are impacting portions of central IN as we type this (6p and looking at you Whitestown), more widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will blow into town late tonight. Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 10p.


For most neighborhoods, expect 0.25″-0.50″ of needed rain tonight into the wee morning hours Thursday. There will be localized heavier totals through central Indiana.


Temperatures will be cooler Thursday, but will remain above normal- generally topping out in the middle and upper 60s in the afternoon before falling Thursday evening. Cooler air will be with us to close the work week (upper 50s to around 60° for most for highs Friday).


Our next storm system has it’s eyes on the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday, but looks less significant when compared to 24-48 hours ago. We’ll continue to keep an eye on things.

GFS ensemble members aren’t terribly “excited” about our next storm potential next week.


There continues to be a great deal of interest around colder times and a pattern change around mid-month. We want to reiterate a couple things:

1.) Wholesale significant pattern changes can (and normally do) wreck havoc on medium and long range data. To our fellow weather friends out there who love to look at run-to-run operational data, expect wild swings as the pattern transition gets underway mid month.

2.) While we’re fully in the camp of a major reversal to cold, we caution the initial pattern transition will likely feature a “step-down” process before shifting to more of a true winter-like pattern (likely complete with plenty of storminess; hello snow lovers) from the Thanksgiving to Christmas period.


Finally, our complete 2016-2017 IndyWx.com Winter Outlook can be found here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/11/02/wednesday-evening-rambles-2/

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