Category: T-storms

Mar 20

Bumpy Start To The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Stormy open to the work week
  • Colder midweek
  • Storms return this weekend

Couple Rounds Of Storms Possible Today…Radar this morning is showing widespread showers and thunderstorms sinking south out of northern Indiana.  Expect to get wet in, and around, the city as the rush hour gets into full swing.  We’ll monitor this evening for the potential of another round of thunderstorms that’ll, once again, originate across northern IN before tracking southeast.  We don’t anticipate widespread severe weather with these rounds of storms, but small hail is certainly possible in some of the storms.

Tuesday will be an overall quieter day, but a cold front will pass with a shower chance Tuesday evening.  We’ll then note a northerly wind shift and a much colder air mass Tuesday night through Thursday morning.  Highs Wednesday will run 10°-15º below average.  If you’re not a fan of the cold, no need to fret as a warmer southerly flow will develop Thursday afternoon and put us in position to return to seasonable levels for highs Thursday after the chilly start.  We’ll then run much warmer than average this weekend, but it comes with a wet and stormy trade off.  Periods of heavy rain are possible Saturday into Sunday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.25″ – 1.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/20/bumpy-start-to-the-work-week/

Mar 18

Weekend Improvements…

Highlights:

  • Chilly Saturday
  • Brighter Sunday
  • Unsettled week ahead

Improving Weekend Weather…The second half of the weekend will most certainly be more pleasant than the way we’re opening up.  Expect mostly cloudy skies with a potential quick-hitting shower, especially from Indianapolis and points northeast through the afternoon hours.  Drier air will then push in this evening and help set-up a very pleasant Sunday.  After a chilly Saturday, lower 50s sure will feel nice with that sunshine Sunday.

Unfortunately, we won’t be able to hang onto the sunny conditions for long.  Clouds increase Monday and evening showers develop.  Tuesday is a transition day and we’ll include mention of showers Tuesday morning before drier, colder air builds south Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A fast transition to a moist southerly flow will greet us for the latter portions of the week and we’ll ramp up shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday PM into Friday as a cold front approaches.  It’ll also be very windy (non-thunderstorm gusts of 40 MPH+).

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Our friend, Moe, sent these images from earlier in the week just north of Frankfort.  Despite the unseasonably cold weather we’ve been dealing with, these shots, separated only by a few hours, illustrate the power of that increasingly high March sun angle.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/18/weekend-improvements/

Mar 16

Thursday Morning Weather Rambles…

1.)  All of a sudden what was a warm March has revered big time.  Officially, Indianapolis is running close to 1° below normal on the month and will continue to fall further once today’s data is factored in.  Always fun to see Mother Nature “balance” things out.

2.)  It’s another cold start to the day with many central Indiana neighborhoods in the teens and hard freezes extending south into Florida this morning.

3.)  Sunshine can be expected today and after the frigid beginning, a moderating trend will begin this afternoon that will send temperatures into the lower to middle 40s.  That’s still close to 10° below average for daytime highs, but will feel much better than what we’ve been dealing with over the past several days.  Add in that high March sun angle and it’ll actually be a very pleasant afternoon.

4.)  Unfortunately, we won’t hang on to the sunshine for St. Patrick’s Day.  A warm front will lift northeast through the region during the overnight and lead to an increase in clouds by evening.  A wintry mix of sleet and freezing rain will impact central IN predawn Friday morning before transitioning to showers mid-to-late morning.  “Light” is the key word here with models suggesting less than 0.20″ total.  By Friday afternoon we’re back to dry times.

5.)  We’ll turn a touch cooler Saturday and it’ll be a blustery day, as well.  A couple of early snow showers are possible across east and northeast portions of the state before afternoon sunshine returns.  High pressure settles in overhead Saturday evening and will set up a nice second half of the weekend- lots of sunshine and milder temperatures by Sunday (lower 50s).

6.)  Looking ahead, the quiet times will be hard to come by as we progress through the latter portions of the month.  Both the new JMA Weeklies (shown below) and other ensemble guidance is bullish on a wetter than average close to the month, and also one that features wild temperature swings.  Thoughts shift back to severe prospects, especially for our friends to our south and the potential of backlash wet snow showers in the colder air.  From a temperature perspective, it’s a pattern that will be very “transient” with no true long-lasting periods of significant warmth, or cold- relative to average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/16/thursday-morning-weather-rambles-4/

Mar 06

Thoughts Shift From Storms To Snow…

Before we discuss the weekend winter storm threat, we still have to get through the overnight period-morning hours Tuesday with embedded heavy rain and storms.  Some of these storms could offer up gusty winds and a few could be strong as they rumble across central Indiana Tuesday morning.

Most of the storms should push through west-central Indiana well before the morning rush hour.

Forecast radar 4am Tuesday.

Forecast radar 6am Tuesday.

Attention will then shift to the winter storm threat this weekend- particularly Friday night through early Sunday morning.  We still have to fine tune the all-important specifics, but confidence is rising on the possibility of a significant wintry event impacting at least portions of the region this weekend.  March snow events provide added headaches of dealing with the impacts of marginal temperatures, higher sun angle/ time of day, etc.  Conversely, the tight thermal gradients noted with most late season, spring snow events can be impressive, as they can quickly feedback, ultimately leading to swaths of thumping wet, heavy snow.  Hoosiers don’t have to think back too terribly far to some impressive and impactful March snow events.  Modeling today is in relatively good and surprising agreement, especially considering the lack of agreement models have dealt us weather ‘folk for the past few months.  🙂

GFS ensemble members are focusing in on a snow event this weekend.

It’s still early in the game and a lot can (and likely will) change with model runs over the next few days.  It’s wise not to make knee-jerk reactions to the operational model solutions, but instead understand the overall pattern driving the potential of this memorable March wintry event.  Anomalously cold air in southern Canada will spill south this weekend and help aid in the “fun and games” ahead.  At the same time, given the time of year, “suppression depression” isn’t likely as their will be resistance from the south-central Plains and southeast ridging in place.  As of now, we think the I-70 corridor could be the “sweet spot” for snow totals, understanding fine-tuning will be required moving forward.  Where a snowpack accumulates this weekend, expect temperatures Sunday night/ Monday morning to fall into the 10s.

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/06/thoughts-shift-from-storms-to-snow/

Mar 06

Rain Coverage Increases; Weekend Winter Storm Brewing?

Highlights:

  • Increasing coverage of showers and t-storms
  • Mostly dry mid week period
  • Weekend wintry fun and games

Busy Week Of Weather…The week is off to an unseasonably mild start as a strong southerly flow continues ahead of an approaching cold front.  That cold front will continue to push east today and sweep through the state Tuesday morning.  Coverage of showers will increase as we go through the late morning and early afternoon hours, but there will still be periods of dry weather today.  Best coverage of rain and thunderstorms will arrive overnight when most are sleeping and end (from northeast to southwest) Tuesday morning.

Mid week is relatively quiet as we begin to transition from a spring-like beginning to more of a winter-like close.  A weak weather system could offer up a few showers Thursday evening, but enthusiasm isn’t high for this to be a big deal.

A more significant storm will move in over the weekend.  This is a complex set-up, but we note anomalously cold air poised to spill south from Canada.  Given the trend of the winter, we’re treading lightly from hitting the big snow theme models currently suggest.  That said, the set-up is one that raises an eyebrow for the potential of a late season, impactful, winter event.  Stay tuned this week as we fine tune the details moving forward.  A word of caution, if we get snow down this weekend, we’ll have to lower temperatures even further for Sunday…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 1″ – 3″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/06/rain-coverage-increases-weekend-winter-storm-brewing/

Mar 05

Sunday Afternoon Rambles…

1.)  It’s another unseasonably pleasant afternoon across central Indiana.  Despite a gusty SW breeze (open county is approaching 40 MPH throughout central IN Sunday afternoon), the sunshine and warm temperatures are providing a phenomenal second half of the weekend.

Temperatures are running 20+ degrees above normal this afternoon.

2.)  Clouds will begin to increase tonight and give way to showers as we open the work week.  There will be plenty of dry time Monday morning into the afternoon, but a passing shower will remain in our forecast.  Heavier rain and embedded thunderstorms will arrive on the scene Monday night into the wee morning hours Tuesday.  As a whole, we expect between 0.50-1″ of rain, overall, by Tuesday morning.

Greatest rainfall coverage will arrive overnight Monday night.

3.)  We’ll trend cooler for the mid week stretch, but nothing “cold” for this time of year.  In fact, temperatures will remain above average as high pressure provides dry conditions.

Weak high pressure builds in for mid week.

4.)  Confidence is high on an active period of weather arriving for the weekend into potentially early parts of next week.  That said, despite overall high confidence on a busy time of things, the specifics remain “murky,” at best.  It’ll be important to check back for updates on the weekend forecast as we progress through the upcoming week.  Solutions range anywhere from a period of rain and storms to possibly some wintry “mischief.”  One thing seems certain and that’s for a period of colder air (below normal) arriving in the 8-10 day period.  In fact, the latest European model suggests overnight low in the 10s late next weekend.

The weather turns active next weekend.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/05/sunday-afternoon-rambles-3/

Mar 04

AM Snow Gives Way To Increasing Sunshine…

Highlights:

  • AM snow ends
  • Windy warm-up coming
  • Early week storms

Snowy For Some This Morning…A narrow band of heavy snow has deposited 1″-2″ for neighborhoods northeast of the city.  Places like Anderson, New Castle, and Richmond were the “sweet spot” for this event.  Thank you for the reports!

As quickly as the snow hit, it’ll depart and be a distant memory this afternoon, as increasingly sunny conditions develop, along with moderating temperatures.  This is the beginning of a weekend warm-up that will send temperatures into the lower 60s Sunday afternoon though we will have to deal with a possible passing shower and strong and gusty southwest winds.

A cold front will sweep through the state to open the work week and help increase overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms Monday- especially during the evening and nighttime hours.  Early showers Tuesday will end and give way to drier, cooler conditions for mid week.

Our next storm system will approach next weekend.  The work week will end with another windy warm-up, along with showers by evening.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall:  Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/04/am-snow-gives-way-to-increasing-sunshine/

Mar 03

Lots Of Sunshine To Close The Work Week; Moderating This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Sunny, cold close to the work week
  • AM light snow Saturday
  • Moderating with storm chances early next week

Coats And Sunglasses Required Today…We’re closing out the work week with plentiful sunshine, but temperatures will run several degrees below average.  Heavier coats will be required out the door this morning with wind chills in the teens.

A warm front will lift north through the state Saturday morning and should push an area of snow northeast with it.  The potential is present for a coating to less than 1″ of snow as this occurs early Saturday morning, especially for area northeast of the city, itself.  Despite the quick hit of morning snow, sunshine should return later in the day and our winds will shift to the southwest.  This will help temperatures recover late in the day and the moderating trend continues Sunday with PM showers.

A cold front will sweep through the region Monday into Tuesday morning with widespread showers and thunderstorms.  After a warm start to the day, temperatures will fall through the daytime hours Tuesday.  Dry, windy conditions will be with us as we push through the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting – 1″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/03/lots-of-sunshine-to-close-the-work-week-moderating-this-weekend/

Mar 01

Turning Colder To Close The Work Week…

Highlights:

  • Showers with falling temperatures today
  • Rain and snow showers Thursday
  • Cold close to the work week
  • Windy weekend warm-up comes with showers

Downward Trend…Showers will increase in coverage this afternoon and evening as temperatures fall into the 40s (this afternoon) and 30s (this evening).  Certainly plan to carry the jacket with you to work and school as you’ll need it on the way home this evening.

Our next weather maker will be a fast-moving clipper system that will arrive Thursday afternoon.  Gusty showers will blow through central Indiana through the afternoon and evening hours before transitioning to snow showers and embedded heavier squalls (capable of a quick coating where the heavier squalls occur).  A dry, but cold close to the work week is ahead with highs Friday only in the middle 30s.

Just as quickly as the cold air hits, it’ll leave this weekend as a windy warm-up develops.  A flurry or sprinkle is possible Saturday as the warm front lifts north and then showers will increase in coverage, along with a strengthening southwest wind (gusts of 40 MPH +) Sunday.

A strong cold front looks to blow through the region Tuesday with showers and thunderstorms a good bet Monday night into Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: Dusting
  • Rainfall:1.00″-1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/03/01/turning-colder-to-close-the-work-week/

Feb 28

VIDEO: Busy Night Of Severe Weather On Tap…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/02/28/video-busy-night-of-severe-weather-on-tap/

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