Category: T-storms

Jun 07

Another Pleasant Day Then It’s Time To Sweat…

Highlights:

  • Another pleasant day ahead!
  • Dry weather continues.
  • The heat is on!

Dry Weather Continues; Summer Feel Develops…We’ll enjoy one more very pleasant and refreshing day Thursday, including plentiful sunshine, low humidity, and below normal temperatures.  Many central Indiana neighborhoods will begin the day in the mid to upper 40s away from the city.  Enjoy the pleasant weather while we’ve got it!

As we progress into the weekend, temperatures and humidity will begin to increase.  By this time next week, overnight lows will be closer to today’s official (IND) high of 72°.  One word: YUCK.

A couple of showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon, but most, if not all, of these look to remain confined to the northern third of the state.  That’s the only chance of moisture until we rumble into the middle of next week.  In addition to the continued bone dry conditions, unseasonably hot weather will build in over the Mid West and result in highs of 90°, or higher, Sunday into early next week.

Looking into the longer range, a more active and increasingly wet regime looks to return just past mid-month.  While the early season heat and dry weather will be significant, thankfully it doesn’t look like it’ll last…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/07/another-pleasant-day-then-its-time-to-sweat/

Jun 06

VIDEO: Pleasant Weather Gives Way To Weekend Heat…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/06/video-pleasant-weather-gives-way-to-weekend-heat/

Jun 04

Storms May Rumble In Later Today; Cooler For Midweek…

We’ve enjoyed a warm and beautiful weekend, and most of Sunday will follow that pleasant them.  However, a cold front will drop south into the state later today and this “trigger” mechanism, combined with the heating of the day, will likely spark a broken line of thunderstorms.  These storms will sink south into central Indiana later this evening, and a couple of storms could become strong.

Modeled radar shows how things may evolve later this evening, including time stamps at 5p, 8p, and 10p.

Most significant rainfall will occur across the northern half of the state, including a couple of 1″+ totals in the heavier storms.

As we push into the midweek stretch, cooler, refreshing air will take up residence across the region.  Temperatures will run significantly cooler than average, including lows in the upper 40s for some Wednesday and Thursday morning and highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s.  Dry weather will continue, as well.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/04/storms-may-rumble-in-later-today-cooler-for-midweek/

Jun 03

Overall Dry And Pleasant Weather Continues…

Highlights:

  • Scattered late-day storms Sunday
  • Dry weather returns
  • Cooler next week

Scattered Strong Storms Late Sunday…Our beautiful weekend weather will continue into Sunday.  Expect a mostly dry day along with warm and humid conditions.  A cold front will approach late in the day and we still think a broken line of thunderstorms will slip south into central Indiana Sunday evening into Sunday night.  A couple of these could become strong, but a widespread severe weather event isn’t anticipated.

We’ll quickly get back to dry conditions as we open the new work week and another extended spell of rain-free conditions should carry us through the balance of the upcoming forecast period.  Additionally, a notable cooling trend will engulf the region.  With dry skies, low humidity, and highs in the lower 70s it’ll be picture-perfect to spend time outdoors.

Moisture will begin to return next weekend and, accordingly, we’ll introduce scattered showers and thunderstorms into our forecast next Saturday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/03/overall-dry-and-pleasant-weather-continues/

Jun 01

Drier Trend Continues This Weekend…

Highlights:

  • Dry close to the work week
  • Mostly dry weekend
  • Slightly cooler next week

Models Continue To Trend Drier…It was only a couple days ago that models were suggesting the threat of heavy rain and scattered strong storms this weekend- beginning Friday.  In this business, it doesn’t take long for things to change sometimes, but this is the first legitimate change for the “drier” that we’ve seen with storm systems since winter.  Time and time again as we draw closer to events, modeling has had to play “catch up” for the wetter over the past few months.

The end result is one that will feature a mostly dry weekend, including only isolated storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening (most stay dry) and scattered coverage Sunday.  As a whole, many more dry hours are expected this weekend than stormy.

The other big takeaway over the past few days is the cool bias models have had.  This is noted and documented and we’re adjusting our forecast accordingly moving forward.  Drier and cooler air will arrive after Monday showers, but temperatures won’t run nearly as cool as once projected.  For the second week in a row, very pleasant and refreshing weather is ahead for the middle of the week.  Not bad, at all, by June standards.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/06/01/drier-trend-continues-this-weekend/

May 31

Pleasant Now; Weekend Storm Chances Return…

Highlights:

  • Sunshine returns
  • Very pleasant
  • Weekend storms
  • Much cooler next week

Very Pleasant…After a couple of gusty thundershowers overnight we’re quickly back to dry and very pleasant weather conditions today.  Thankfully, sunshine and refreshing temperatures will continue Thursday.

Moisture begins to return as early as Friday afternoon and scattered late-day thunderstorms are possible.  While scattered thunderstorms will continue Saturday, there will be more dry time than wet and stormy.  The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Sunday as a cold front moves in.

That cold front will be off to our east Sunday night and help usher in a much cooler feel early next week.  Gusty northwest winds and a couple showers are still possible at times through early week.  The bigger story will be the unseasonably cool temperatures as we expect highs in the upper 60s both Monday and Tuesday.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 2.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/31/pleasant-now-weekend-storm-chances-return/

May 30

Challenging Northwest Flow Remains…

The region will remain in a challenging northwest flow for the balance of the upcoming 10-14 day period.  This can play havoc with forecast models, particularly from a timing standpoint.  In short, expect a continuation of active weather, including wetter and cooler than normal conditions.

Another weak disturbance will kick up a few scattered showers and potentially an embedded thunderstorm tonight.  Similar to Monday, this will come after a gorgeous day.

Forecast radar at 1a Wednesday shows scattered showers still impacting portions of the state:

The majority of our midweek stretch looks rain-free, but more widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we push into the weekend.  Recent trends have also slowed the FROPA (frontal passage) down significantly- now perhaps not until late Sunday.

There will be dry time this weekend, but with a moisture laden air mass in place, locally heavy downpours can be expected, including rainfall potential of 1″+ this weekend for neighborhoods that get under a heavier storm.

Longer-term, modeling continues to suggest a cooler than normal pattern persists as we push through the first half of June.

In fact, there may be a couple of days early next week where highs struggle to reach 70° with lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.  Very refreshing, indeed, for early June.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/30/challenging-northwest-flow-remains/

May 29

Pleasant Weather As We Close May…

Highlights:

  • Pleasant weather ahead
  • Storm chances return to close the week
  • Drier trend this weekend

Happy Memorial Day…Before we look forward to the rest of the week, a secondary cold front will pass this evening and a couple of showers could bubble up as sunset nears.  These won’t be a big deal and should be quick movers with cooler, drier air building in overnight.  That will set the stage for a very pleasant midweek stretch, temperature-wise.  Another round of showers are possible Wednesday, but more dry time can be expected than wet.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will return as we close the work week and open the weekend.  A cold front will push southeast Saturday morning and we’ll turn briefly warmer and more humid Friday with increasing thunderstorm chances during the back half of the day.  Once the front slides to our south, drier and cooler air will quickly return.  From this distance the weekend doesn’t look bad, at all.  Unseasonably cool, dry air will continue next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall:  0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/29/pleasant-weather-as-we-close-may/

May 28

VIDEO: Not Bad For Race Day, But Storms May Threaten This Afternoon In Spots…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/28/video-not-bad-for-race-day-but-storms-may-threaten-this-afternoon-in-spots/

May 27

More Dry Time Than Not, But Keeping A Close Eye On Storm Chances…

Highlights:

  • Much more dry time than stormy
  • Timing storm chances
  • Unseasonably cool open to June

Best Storm Chances Arrive Overnight…Low clouds and areas of fog should dissipate and give way to partial sunshine as we progress into the late morning and afternoon hours.  A warm and humid feel will develop this afternoon.

The majority of the long race and holiday weekend will be free of any rain and storms, but we will continue to keep a close eye on the potential of more widespread storm activity:

Overnight tonight into early Sunday morning and again Sunday afternoon.

Data would place more emphasis on the potential of widespread severe weather across southern parts of the state tonight.  Damaging wind and hail are the primary concerns.  Additionally, as a cold front rumbles into the warm and moist airmass in place Sunday afternoon, additional strong to severe storms may develop.  These will be more scattered in nature when compared to the overnight round of storms, but any one particular neighborhood across central Indiana is fair game for getting wet for a brief time Sunday afternoon.

The cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and usher in a less humid and pleasant Memorial Day.  We’ll keep an eye on Tuesday into Wednesday for shower chances, but think we’ll remain mostly rain-free.  The region will be under a fast-paced northwest flow aloft and models can struggle with specifics associated with weak disturbances in that northwest flow.  The next chance of storms arrives Friday, along with a warmer feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.00″ – 1.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/05/27/more-dry-time-than-not-but-keeping-a-close-eye-on-storm-chances/

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