Category: T-storms
Today will be dry and pleasant and most of Labor Day, itself, will follow suit. We’ll notice an increasingly gusty southwest wind by afternoon and this will help boost temperatures into the upper 80s Monday afternoon.
However, once to Labor Day evening, attention will shift off to our north as a line of thunderstorms approaches. A few embedded storms within this line may reach strong-to-severe levels. Damaging straight line winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms. The Storm Prediction Center has included the region in a Slight Risk of severe weather Monday evening.
After a mostly dry and warm Labor Day, we’ll focus on the evening hours (bracketing 6p-10p) for storms to rumble in. As mentioned, a couple of these could reach strong to severe levels.
6p forecast radar
8p forecast radar
9p forecast radar
10p forecast radar
Once the front blows through, our winds will shift to the northwest and help usher in a much cooler air mass. Average highs in the upper 60s and lows in the upper 40s don’t occur until early-October. We’ll be around 30 days ahead of schedule throughout the majority of the upcoming week, as overnight lows in the upper 40s to around 50 and highs in the upper 60s to around 70 will be common.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/03/strong-cold-front-delivers-storms-and-another-surge-of-october-like-air/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Harvey, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy
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September 2, 2017
Highlights:
- Dry Labor Day weekend
- Cold front arrives early Tuesday
- Another cool shot next week
Improving Skies West To East Today…The remnants of Harvey led to heavy, wind-whipped, rain across southern and southeastern portions of the state Friday. Appropriately, today is the “transition day” towards brighter and briefly warmer times as Labor Day approaches. We’ll notice improving sky conditions from west to east today as the remnants of Harvey continue to track east. Today also won’t be nearly as windy as Friday. We awoke to temperatures at mid-October levels, including many in the 40s across central Indiana this morning. Despite the increasing sunshine, temperatures will run around 10° below average this afternoon.
A cold front will approach late Labor Day night and early Tuesday. Sunshine will dominate Monday, but we will note an increasingly gusty SW breeze by afternoon as the cold front draws closer. That front will slide through Tuesday and could have a scattered shower or thunderstorm with it as it passes (best chances of storms will be across the southern half of the state). Behind the frontal boundary, another shot of well below normal air (October-like) will descend into the region. With cold air aloft and just enough upper level energy around, widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon hours Wednesday and Thursday.
Tropics: Irma will dominate weather headlines during the upcoming week. It’s far too early to know precisely where Irma will track, but folks with interests along the East Coast (from the southern FL peninsula all the way up to the north Atlantic coast) should monitor the progress of Irma closely. In addition to the likelihood of a major hurricane, the overall size of Irma will become larger as the week progresses.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/02/pleasant-labor-day-weekend-another-cool-shot-next-week/
Highlights:
- Harvey’s remnants
- Windy and October-like
- Improving weather for Labor Day weekend
- Another blast of cool air next week
Is It The First Of September Or October?! Harvey’s remnants will track northeast along the Ohio River (tonight) and into the central Appalachians (Saturday). The combination of a tight pressure gradient between the circulation around what’s left of Harvey and an area of high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes will result in strong and gusty easterly winds to wrap up the work week. Factor in temperatures that will run close to 20° below normal and jackets will be required today! We don’t have any changes in regards to our rainfall forecast: heaviest and steadiest rain will remain downstate. Lighter showers will begin to overspread central parts of the state, including Indianapolis, later this evening.
Early showers will pull off to the east Saturday and we should end the day with increasing sunshine. Those improvements will continue Sunday into Labor Day with dry conditions.
A cold front will approach early next week and result in an increasingly windy regime Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The front will sweep through the state Tuesday with a broken band of showers and thunderstorms followed by another shot of unseasonably cool air by the middle of next week. Lingering upper level energy will result in spotty showers Wednesday with the cooler conditions.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.30″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/01/grab-the-jacket-2/
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Filed under 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Forecast Discussion, Harvey, Heavy Rain, Labor Day Weekend, Rain, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Windy
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August 30, 2017
Highlights:
- Pleasant stretch of midweek weather
- Harvey’s remnants impact the region
- Gearing up for a strong cold front just after Labor Day
Calm Before The Storm…Weak high pressure will control our midweek weather. Patchy fog will eventually burn off to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon. A backdoor cold front will, uneventfully, slip through the state Thursday. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible Thursday afternoon, but most neighborhoods should remain rain-free.
Then our attention turns to Harvey’s remnants. The greatest impact on central Indiana will be unseasonably cool temperatures and strong and gusty easterly winds. While the precipitation shield should encompass all of central Indiana, we still believe this will be more “showery” in nature for the city and points north, including north-central parts of the state. Steadier and heavier rains are likely across southern and southeastern portions of the state (where the axis of 2″+ totals will be likely). The combination of high pressure located to our northeast and Harvey’s circulation passing along the Ohio River will result in a very stiff easterly flow Friday. Expect temperatures in the 50s most of the day with gusts over 30 MPH at times. Have the jackets and sweaters ready.
Moisture will begin to pull east of the region Saturday, but we’ll include the chance of morning showers.
We’ll be in between storms Sunday and Labor Day, itself. Dry and pleasant conditions can be expected before a strong cold front moves through the state Tuesday. Scattered showers and a possible thunderstorm will accompany this frontal passage, followed by the coolest air since last spring by the middle of next week. Get set for an October-like feel…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.30″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/30/pleasant-now-very-cool-wet-for-some-and-windy-close-to-the-week/
I.) Overnight rain and storms impacted central Indiana during the overnight. Some of the slow moving storms dumped a quick 2″ of rain in isolated areas, but most ended up…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/29/tuesday-morning-rambles-4/
Highlights:
- Wet open to the work week
- Late week backdoor cold front
- Where will Harvey’s remnants track?
More Active Week Of Weather Than We’ve Seen In Some Time…When you factor in upper level energy kicking up showers and embedded thunder early this week, a backdoor cold front Thursday, and potentially dealing with the remnants of Harvey by the weekend, then you have the makings for much more active times than we’ve seen in months. Before we move forward, we must say the weekend forecast is incredibly difficult and confidence is very low at the moment with any one particular scenario concerning Harvey’s remnants. It’ll be important to keep a close eye on the forecast as we progress through the next few days.
Showers this morning are associated with upper level energy tracking east across the Ohio Valley. While additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Tuesday, there’ll be more dry time than wet. Wednesday will be a day in between storm systems. A backdoor cold front will slip into the state Thursday. A widely scattered thunderstorm is possible as the front moves south followed by a cooler close to the work week.
Looking ahead to the weekend, models continue to suggest Harvey’s remnants will eventually begin to track north, northeast. There will be a limit to the northward extent of Harvey’s moisture before an approaching strong cold front (same one that will deliver the coolest air here since last spring) and associated deep trough “shoves” him east. We’ll take a blend of data at this point and mention showers Saturday and Sunday as moisture from Harvey makes it into the Ohio Valley. With that said, the solutions still range from “dry” to “heavy rain” and we’ll have to fine tune things as we move forward. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″ – 1.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/28/wet-start-to-the-work-week-keeping-a-close-eye-on-harvey/
Highlights:
- Rain and storm chances increase
- Late week cold front
- Gearing up for a bigger blast of fall air
Dry Close To The Weekend…First and foremost, our thoughts and prayers are with Texas as one of the worst flood events in our country’s history is unfolding this morning. With days of heavy rain ahead, an additonal 20″-30″ will fall on eastern Texas. Just horrific.
Here on the home front, we’ll wrap up the weekend on a dry note, but upper level energy will drift overhead late tonight and help generate scattered showers and thunderstorms as early as the predawn hours Monday. We’ll maintain a bit of an unsettled regime into Tuesday before dry conditions return Wednesday.
A backdoor cold front will push through central Indiana Thursday and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms may accompany this frontal passage. A northeasterly flow will usher in an unseasonably cool, early fall-like, close to the work week.
Looking ahead, an even stronger cold front has it’s eyes set on the region late next weekend or early the following week. Strong thunderstorm potential is present with this storm system followed by the coolest air since last spring…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/27/rain-returns-late-week-backdoor-cold-front/
Highlights:
- Scattered storms with locally heavy rain
- Early fall-like feel arrives
- Dry weather returns
Cold Front Arrives…A cold front is pressing into the state today and generating unsettled weather across the region. Widespread heavy rains fell overnight across northern parts of the state (areas just west of Lafayette have picked up 3″-4″ of rain during the past 24 hours). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected through early evening before a much drier and cooler air mass arrives tonight behind the frontal passage.
That drier and cooler regime will set the tone for the rest of the week and weekend. High pressure will settle in and provide plentiful sunshine. Additionally, cool, Canadian air will pour south as we progress through the second half of the week. This will result in well below normal temperatures and conditions that will feel more like mid to late September rather than late August.
Tropics: Harvey is likely to stage a comeback over the next few days once he emerges into the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Folks with interests along the Texas coastline should certainly monitor Harvey for tropical implications as the weekend approaches. An interior heavy rain/ flood threat will result, as well.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/22/tuesday-storms-then-much-cooler/
August, month-to-date, is running bone-dry. Officially, IND has only accumulated 0.18″ of rain, but that may be changing as early as this afternoon and evening.
We note high resolution, short-term data is becoming more aggressive with the development of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Initially, storms will impact w-central parts of the state before encompassing more of central Indiana. The following are images of what the local radar may look like at 4p, 6p, and 8p.
With leftover boundaries from early morning storms across northern parts of the state (likely will serve as a “trigger” for PM storm development), combined with a hot and muggy airmass, confidence is increasing on numerous showers and thunderstorms across central Indiana this afternoon and evening. Widespread heavy rain isn’t expected this afternoon, but localized hefty downpours are a good bet with precipitable water values (PWATs) approaching 2″ this afternoon.
Unsettled times remain Tuesday before a much cooler regime looms for the second half of the week…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/21/chances-of-needed-rain-increasing-for-central-indiana/
Highlights:
- Hot and humid open to the week
- Scattered early week storms
- Much cooler and less humid times loom
Time To Sweat…A hot and increasingly humid airmass will be with us as we open a new week. While most of the upcoming 24-48 hours will remain rain-free, we will mention chances of an isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm Monday. Most will remain free of rain and storms, but those lucky folks who do find themselves under a storm Monday can expect to pick up a quick 1″ of rain. Better overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday night into Tuesday.
Typically, a pattern change such as what we’ll undergo this week (summer-like to early fall-like) would yield widespread showers and thunderstorms. However, a look at short-term, higher resolution data isn’t particularly “excited” about widespread significant rainfall across central Indiana. We expect a weakening complex of thunderstorms off to our northwest to drift southeast Monday night. Depending on how quickly this complex weakens will determine rainfall amounts, locally. Additionally, it’s very possible this weakening storm complex will serve to limit new thunderstorm development Tuesday as the cold front moves closer. We do note high resolution data places emphasis on northern and southern parts of the state for heaviest rains and it’s tough to disagree with that idea given what we’re looking at right now. Stay tuned.
Regardless of the rain and storm situation, locally, we’ll all turn significantly cooler by midweek. In fact, temperatures will grow cool enough to feel like mid-September. Dry conditions will carry us into next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/08/20/hot-humid-weather-gives-way-to-much-cooler-times/
