You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Category: T-storms
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/04/video-soaking-rains-tropics-and-a-much-cooler-feel-next-week/
Oct 03
Bonus Summertime…
Highlights:
- Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
- Warm pattern continues
- Changes loom later next week
Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days. It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend. At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend. The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell. It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday. Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.
As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast. Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico. While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland. It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.
Back to the FROPA discussion: The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week. The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period. In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/03/bonus-summertime/
Oct 02
VIDEO: More Active Times Loom…
You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access. Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access? Log-in here.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/02/video-more-active-times-loom/
Oct 01
Warm Week With Increasing Rain Chances…
Highlights:
- Dry open to the work week
- Warming trend develops
- Turning more unsettled
Week Opens Dry; Ends Unsettled…High pressure will remain in control of our weather as we open up the new work week. This will supply continued dry conditions along with a warming trend as our refreshing easterly flow transitions to the south.
This southerly air flow will help transport moisture northward as we progress into midweek and a “sluggish” front will begin to impact the area Wednesday evening into Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and as the front meanders around the region, shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend. Forecast models differ on the evolution of things over the weekend and result in the sensible weather conditions ranging from more widespread showers and embedded thunder to more of a “splash and dash” variety of rain coverage. We’ll fine tune things as we progress through the week.
Much cooler air is forecast to return just past the current 7-day forecast period.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.75″- 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/10/01/warm-week-with-increasing-rain-chances/
Sep 21
Summer Continues Into Next Week Before Cool Changes Take Over…
Highlights:
- Summer-like heat continues
- Dry times prevail
- Much cooler air looms
A Little Something For Everyone…If you’re a fan of summer, this forecast has it! If you’re a fan of fall, this forecast has that, too! Summer-like heat will dominate through the short-term with only a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm today. Most will remain dry and that dry theme will carry us into the new work week ahead. Unseasonably hot (upper 80s to near 90 is downright hot) conditions will also continue as we open up the new week.
That said, a long advertised cold front will push towards the region by midweek and this will provide enough lift to create widely scattered thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning. Significant and widespread rains aren’t, unfortunately, anticipated. The bigger deal will be the much cooler air that will spill into the region Thursday and set the stage for an unseasonably cool open to October.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.10″ – 0.25″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/21/summer-continues-into-next-week-before-cool-changes-take-over/
Sep 18
Scattered Storms; Summer-like Feel…
Highlights:
- Scattered t-storms
- Dry weather returns
- True summer-like feel
Unseasonably Warm Weather Continues…Similar to the past 24 hours, scattered showers and thunderstorms will dot the central Indiana landscape through midweek. As has been the case, there will continue to be “haves and have nots” over the next couple of days. Some neighborhoods will get lucky with localized slow moving downpours while others miss out entirely. All in all, it’s a very summer-like regime- both from a temperature/ humidity standpoint, as well as a precipitation perspective.
As we flip the page and head into the upcoming weekend, dry times will return. A big ole upper level ridge will balloon over the mid west and eastern portion of the country and this will serve to lead to a continuation of summer-like warmth- certainly well above average. It sure won’t feel like fall as we officially welcome in the new season Friday.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.50″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/18/scattered-storms-summer-like-feel/
Sep 17
Highly Amplified Pattern; Making Up For Lost Time In The Summer Department…
So far this month, unseasonably cool conditions have set up shop across the eastern portion of the country (IND is running more than 4° below normal through the 16th) while the west has experienced a much warmer than average pattern.
That will flip around in big time fashion this week as a highly amplified pattern takes hold. The mean trough position will shift into the west and lead to an early taste of winter, including mountain snow. Meanwhile, our region will make up for lost time in the summer department, including highs generally in the mid to upper 80s (around 10° above average).
Daily chances of widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be with us beginning today through the majority of the upcoming week. Everyone won’t get wet, but there will be a couple of localized heavy downpours on area radars at times. As dry as we’ve been, we’ll take what we can get.
Eventually, the pattern will “relax” (at least briefly) out towards Day 10. This will feature a more seasonable regime returning to the region, along with better chances of more widespread rains as a cold front approaches. We’ll also have to keep a close eye on additional tropical threats to the southeast region…
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/17/highly-amplified-pattern-making-up-for-lost-time-in-the-summer-department/
Sep 15
Still Some Summer Left In The Tank…
Highlights:
- Warmth builds
- Storms chances (finally) return
- Rinse and repeat
Summer Isn’t Finished Yet…We may be inching ever so much closer to the official start of autumn (next Friday), but don’t tell Mother Nature that. After an unusually cool close to August and open to September, we’re set to make up for lost time over the next couple of weeks. Heat will build and expand across the Mid West this weekend and that will set the tone for the upcoming forecast period.
Weather conditions should remain dry to kick off the weekend (great day for the Whitestown Brewfest, by the way), but moisture will return for the second half of the weekend. Combine the increasing moisture with enough lift and widely scattered thunderstorms will fire Sunday. Overall coverage won’t be particularly impressive, but will be a harbinger of things to come as the new week unfolds. A couple of surface fronts will push up against the strong ridge in place as we progress through the work week. While these will “wash out” over the Ohio Valley, they’ll be sufficient enough to provide scattered-to-numerous showers and thunderstorms next week. Our parched soils will take anything they can get!
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/15/still-some-summer-left-in-the-tank/
Sep 06
Mid-October Weather…
Highlights:
- Widely scattered storms this afternoon
- Well below average temperatures
- Overall dry pattern continues
Jackets Required…Hoosiers are waking up to temperatures all the way down into the middle and upper 40s away from the city this morning (sure is hard to beat this crisp fall air). Sunshine will greet us out the door, but we’ll notice increasing cloudiness this afternoon and widely scattered thundershowers will follow. Most will stay dry, but enough upper level energy will interact with the cool air aloft to generate “pop corn” variety thundershowers this afternoon and evening. Additionally, highs in the mid 60s today and Thursday will be more like mid-October than early-September.
There’s no reason to waste a lot of pixels on the rest of the forecast period. Dry weather will dominate. Reinforcing cool air will arrive by the weekend and that cooler than average feel will remain throughout the forecast period. We’ll notice a gusty easterly wind at times late in the weekend and early next week as the pressure gradient tightens a bit between an area of high pressure to our northeast and Irma moving north into the Southeast.
Tropics: Irma continues to dominate the headlines, and rightfully so. This morning we have (2) additional storms: Jose and Katia. Jose is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, but should remain a “fish storm.” Katia will meander around the Bay of Campeche over the next few days and doesn’t pose a threat to the US.
Irma remains a category 5 beast this morning and overnight data continues to paint an ominous picture for the southeastern coast. Folks from the southern FL peninsula all the way up the coast to include the Carolinas need to remain abreast of the latest developments on Irma in the days ahead. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin as early as Friday evening for southern Florida. Eventually, more of the southeast can expect impacts from Irma late weekend and next week, including interior areas such as the southern Appalachians…
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.00″ – 0.10″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/06/mid-october-weather/
Sep 04
VIDEO: Severe Potential Tonight, October-Like Chill, And Irma…
The Storm Prediction Center includes an Enhanced Risk of severe weather across north-central parts of the state this evening. Damaging winds are of greatest concern with the stronger storms embedded in a squall line that will move from north to south this evening (generally between 6p-midnight).
MUCH cooler air will descend into the region as we progress through the week. Temperatures will be so cool, it’ll feel more like October rather than September, including multiple nights with lows settling into the 40s and highs not making it out of the 60s.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2017/09/04/video-severe-potential-tonight-october-like-chill-and-irma/