Aug 26
Refreshing: We’re off to another pleasantly cool start this morning. Also note the cooler air has been able to ooze into the southeast. Speaking of cool, it’s been a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/26/wednesday-weather-notebook/
Aug 22
August has been cooler and drier than normal month-to-date. As we’ll get into below, this cooler, dry trend should continue to wrap up the month.
* Click on any image to enlarge.
August temperature departure- month-to-date.
August precipitation departure- month-to-date2015 to date has been cool central and east:2015 to date has been cool central and east:
2015 to date has been cool central and east:
The upcoming winter looks fun and challenging. It’s a volatile look with the strong Nino and warm northern, eastern Pacific (positive PDO). Certainly can’t “broad brush” the upcoming winter forecast solely based off similar strong Ninos of the past…
Positive PDO temperature anomalies favor western Canada ridging and troughiness east. It’s a pattern that favors a cooler than normal regime across the east and southeast.
As we go into the weekend, sunshine and comfortable conditions today will give way to increasingly cloudy skies Sunday with a threat of a shower or thunderstorm, especially during the afternoon and evening. A few of these storms could reach strong levels. The culprit? Another strong late August cold front. Most rainfall totals will be around a quarter inch Sunday, but there will be some locally heavier totals with stronger storms.
Warmer conditions will build in briefly in between the early week cool spell and stronger push of cool inbound Sunday night that will remain with us through the majority of the upcoming work week.
Longer term, we think conditions warm going into next weekend after a very cool, fall-like week, but don’t necessarily agree with the GFS ensemble plot below into early September.
We expect ridging to build in to close the last couple days of August.
However, recurving Typhoon Atsani argues for a return of cooler air (briefly) and an associated trough arriving between September 2nd and 4th…
Images credited to the following:
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/22/saturday-morning-a-look-where-weve-been-and-where-were-going/
Aug 19
A significant late summer cold front will move into the warm and humid air mass currently in place later tonight. This time tomorrow will feel mighty different outside with a…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/19/wednesday-weather-notebook-strong-storms-still-possible/
Aug 13
We may only be in mid August, but the IndyWx.com office is busy putting together initial thoughts around fall and winter (it’ll be here before you know it)! The upcoming…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/13/thoughts-shifting-to-fall-and-winter/
Aug 09
Highlights:
The week will open with a typical humid and oppressive feel, but take heart in knowing it won’t last long. A cold front will move through the region Monday night and drier air will filter into the Hoosier state Tuesday. A much cooler and drier air mass will be with us through mid week before warmth builds heading into the weekend. Thursday morning will have many really craving those cool, crisp autumn mornings.
As far as rain and storm chances are concerned, we’ll keep an eye to the sky for scattered shower and thunderstorm coverage today. Forecast models differ on the weekend. The GFS suggests a cold front moves through here Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms and we’ll lean in that direction for now. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 0.75″
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/09/humid-feel-to-open-the-week-doesnt-last/
Aug 08
Highlights:
The weekend is off to a pleasant start- both from a temperature and humidity perspective, but also with current sky conditions across the area. Expect periods of mid and high level cloudiness to increase later today. We also note some of our shorter term modeling trying to push light rain into the picture by evening, but think the air mass will take some time to moisten up before we see much in the way of rain. Most of this should dissipate moving into western IN this evening.
The second half of the weekend will provide much better chances of showers and embedded thunder. In fact, we expect a couple waves of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. It won’t rain the entire time, but keep the umbrella and rain gear handy. Thunderstorm chances will continue as we open the new work week before a big push of cooler and drier air engulfs the region heading into mid week. An early fall preview will settle in Tuesday evening and have things feeling mighty nice around these parts for the rest of the week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 0.50″ – 1.00″
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/08/pick-of-the-weekend-is-today-taste-of-early-fall-coming/
Aug 07
Thursday’s rain is now long gone. Heaviest rains fell south as expected. (Numbers below are only through 24 hours ago). Many reporting sites across central Indiana are returning numbers…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/07/awesome-close-to-the-work-week-weekend-thoughts/
Aug 05
Highlights:
Low pressure will track east through the lower Ohio Valley today and help spread widespread rain up to the I-70 corridor this morning. Periods of heavy rain can be expected downstate. Thankfully rain won’t stay around all day and we should get into clearing later this afternoon and evening as drier air wins out from northwest to southeast. This will set up a beauty of a close to the work week with nice weather continuing into the weekend.
Moisture will return early next week and we’ll introduce storms into the picture as early as Sunday afternoon, but particularly Monday and Tuesday before drier, more refreshing air returns for mid week.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1″ – 1.5″ (heavier south)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/08/05/wet-start-not-a-bad-finish/
Jul 31
Highlights:
We couldn’t ask for a better start to the weekend. Today will feature lots of sunshine, pleasant humidity and temperatures, and absolutely perfect conditions to spend time outdoors! Enjoy because active times return for the second half of the weekend that will carry us into next week.
As promised, we’re heading back into a very busy weather pattern. The hot dome of air (ridge of high pressure) will shift southwest and allow multiple disturbances to ride the outer periphery of the ridge in a northwest to southeast fashion. Each disturbance will be capable of producing periods of showers and thunderstorms- some of which may produce locally heavy rainfall.
As we progress into the latter portion of the work week questions abound. How far does drier air penetrate south? What’s the precise location of the ridge? Both will have to be answered in due time. For now, we’re sticking with an unsettled regime with progressively cooler air. If some of the drier solutions verify then we’ll remove rain and storms altogether once past Thursday and introduce even cooler air. Stay tuned.
Upcoming 7-Day Rainfall Forecast: 1.5″ – 2″ (locally heavier totals)
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/31/awesome-open-to-the-weekend-wet-pattern-quickly-returns/
Jul 23
It’s been a very wet July across these parts. Specifically talking about Indianapolis, we’re running a whopping 8.5″ above normal, month-to-date! Cool and wet has been the theme across…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2015/07/23/needed-break-from-the-rain/