Category: Summer

Great Weekend Weather…

Screen Shot 2016-07-09 at 9.05.16 AMHighlights:

  • Dry and pleasant weekend
  • Moisture and storms return next week
  • Another push of cool air next weekend?

Sunglasses Required…What a great feel we’re greeted with out there this morning!  Low humidity and pleasant temperatures will be with us through the weekend, along with lots of sunshine.  Sunday morning will feature many neighborhoods in the middle to upper 50s across central IN.  Mid-July, what?! 🙂

Moisture will slowly return as we back our air flow around to the SW early next week.  Additionally, we’re tracking multiple disturbances mid week that will promote increased chances of thunderstorms.

An early look at late week shows potentially another push of dry and cool air to set-up a beautiful close to the work week.  We’re getting spoiled.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.75″-1.50″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/09/great-weekend-weather/

Friday Morning Rambles…

1.) We’ve got another warm, humid day dialed up and as a cold front moves in this afternoon, scattered strong to severe storms are possible.  We think east-central Indiana stands the greatest threat at experiencing a severe storm later this evening.

2

12.) The aforementioned cold front will sweep through the state tonight and allow a much drier and cooler air mass to push in for the weekend.  We’ll enjoy a downright pleasant feel this weekend, including lots of sunshine.  Enjoy!

33.) Dry weather should continue into early next week, but wet and stormy weather will return as early as Tuesday, continuing into the latter portions of the week.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_16This is the start of what should be a rather wet period for mid and late month.

gfs-ens_apcpna_us_64.) This is also a continued “transient” pattern through the end of the month, meaning we really don’t see any sort of sustained dry, hot weather in the foreseeable future…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/08/friday-morning-rambles-3/

Periods Of Storms Before A Pleasant Weekend…

Screen Shot 2016-07-05 at 7.09.57 AMHighlights:

  • Muggy times return
  • Multiple storm chances mid/ late week
  • Strong-severe storm potential
  • Drier weekend

Air You Can Wear…A quick step out of the door this morning will quickly remind you that we’re in the heart of summer.  A tropical feel will remain through the middle and latter portions of the work week.  While an isolated shower is possible this afternoon, we should remain mostly dry across the state.

Better chances of showers and thunderstorms will return Wednesday, and we target the chances of two round of storms- morning and night.  Some of these storms could be strong to severe, including damaging straight line winds.  Don’t be surprised if updated Storm Prediction Center outlooks place a Slight Risk into portions of the state Wednesday.

Additional storm chances will be present Thursday and Friday before a drier air mass arrives in time for the weekend.  With the drier air will also come cooler nights- lower 60s Saturday morning and upper 50s Sunday morning.  After the warm, humid time of things the next few days, the drier air mass will feel quite refreshing.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″ – 2″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/05/periods-of-storms-before-a-pleasant-weekend/

Friday Morning Video Update: Pleasant Open To The Holiday Weekend Before Wet Times Build In…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/07/01/friday-morning-video-update-pleasant-open-to-the-holiday-weekend-before-wet-times-build-in/

Refreshing Feel On The Way…

Screen Shot 2016-06-27 at 8.35.11 AM

Highlights:

  • Isolated PM storm
  • Drier and much cooler air coming
  • Late week storm chance

Much Cooler Weather On Deck…A secondary cold front will slip through central IN this evening. While most of today will be rain-free, an isolated to widely scattered shower or storm can’t be ruled out as the front moves through later this evening.  Following the frontal passage, an unseasonably cool air mass will pour into the area and set up a very pleasant mid week stretch.  Hard to beat lower-middle 50s at night and 70s during the day in late June.

Our next chance of rain and storms will arrive Friday.  Early indications as of now suggest dry conditions and pleasant temperatures going into the long Independence Day weekend.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/27/refreshing-feel-on-the-way/

Fantastic Saturday!

Screen Shot 2016-06-25 at 8.58.02 AMHighlights:

  • Beautiful Saturday
  • Storms return Sunday
  • Much cooler next week

Couldn’t Ask For Better Weather…After a week filled with multiple days of rain and storms, we’re rewarded with simply phenomenal weather today!  Dry conditions and mostly sunny skies will combine with lower humidity and highs in the mid/ upper 80s to create a great day to be outdoors.

Humidity will return Sunday and a frontal boundary will press in during the afternoon.  Storm chances will be on the rise and a strong to severe storm can’t be ruled out.  While storm coverage won’t be as widespread as this past week, we’ll keep an eye on the radar tomorrow evening.

The big story next week is the MUCH cooler air mass that will blow into town.  A shower will accompany the unseasonably cool air Tuesday before we return to mostly dry conditions for the middle of the week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″-0.75″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/25/fantastic-saturday/

Drier Air Works In Later This Evening; Eyeing A Cool Close To The Month…

Screen Shot 2016-06-23 at 7.59.42 AMHighlights:

  • Stormy times later today, especially south
  • Drier air mass works in
  • Storms return Sunday
  • Cooler to close the month

The Clean Up Begins…It was an active (and long) night across central IN as storms rumbled through.  Thankfully, the clean up will take place with dry conditions today for most of us.  For our southern viewers, we expect more widespread thunderstorms to fire during the afternoon and evening hours as a frontal boundary drops south.  We think most of central IN is dry today.

A drier, more refreshing air mass will filter into the region to close the week and head into the weekend.  Sunshine will prevail.

Warmth and humidity will be on the uptick for the second half of the weekend and storms will be associated with the moisture return.  Saturday is definitely the pick of the weekend!

Cooler times loom to wrap up the month…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″-1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/23/drier-air-works-in-later-this-evening-eyeing-a-cool-close-to-the-month/

Latest Thinking On What Will Be A Busy Wednesday…

The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) maintains a significant severe weather risk across Indiana Wednesday.  A Slight risk encompasses the southern portions of the state, while an Enhanced risk takes up residence across central Indiana.  Finally, a Moderate risk is located across the northern third of the state.  Given the latest data, we wouldn’t be surprised if a portion of the Enhanced/ Moderate risk areas are upgraded to a rare High risk during the early Wednesday morning SPC update.  Regardless, we want to be very clear that Wednesday is a potentially dangerous weather day across Indiana.

2We won’t bore you with the meteorological ingredients/ lingo that are coming together to lead to an active Wednesday with this post, but please know that nearly all severe weather parameters point to the threat, and even likelihood, of an active day.

That said, there are unknowns.  How does morning convection impact our ability to heat/ destabilize things during the afternoon?  Are models underestimating the cold pool that will likely develop with the storms during the afternoon/ evening?  If so, a further southeast track and more robust situation could unfold (when compared to what forecast radar products suggest as of this post Tuesday evening).

While all modes of severe weather are certainly possible, for our immediate region, we’re particularly concerned for the threat of widespread damaging winds and flash flooding.  It wouldn’t surprise us if localized 3″+ amounts fall across portions of central and northern IN Wednesday.  Precipitable water values (PWATs) surging to 2″+ give increased confidence on localized flash flooding, especially considering the recent wet times.

6

FlashFloodThreatThe first of multiple storm clusters will likely be moving into central IN Wednesday morning.  Here’s an idea of what the radar may look like around 7a.

1We think we undergo a “lull” in the action Wednesday afternoon before a potentially more serious complex of storms blows into town during the evening hours.  We caution that we’re not as confident on specific timing with the evening round of storms.

3

4Current data would imply a tornado threat for areas from northern IL into northwestern IN with the afternoon/ evening convection before “morphing” into a more widespread damaging wind threat as the line propels southeast into the nighttime hours.  Timing will have to be fine tuned as Wednesday morning arrives.

To close, if you take anything from this post, please understand the importance of knowing your family’s severe weather safety plan.  Have a means of getting the latest watch and warning information from the National Weather Service and take any and all bulletins seriously.

Much more later!

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/21/latest-thinking-on-what-will-be-a-busy-wednesday/

Scattered Severe Storms Tonight…

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 11p.

Screen Shot 2016-06-20 at 4.49.21 PMDamaging straight line winds and large hail are of biggest concern as these scattered strong to severe storms continue to advance southeast.  This is all in association with a cold front moving into a very warm, moist, and unstable air mass.

Forecast radar this evening continues to show a broken line of strong to severe thunderstorms advancing into central IN during the evening hours.

1

2In addition to the hail and wind threat, locally torrential downpours are a good bet as precipitable water values (PWATs) approach 2″+ in some areas.

3We’ll turn much quieter during the overnight as the cold front passes through the region.  A northwest wind shift will allow a drier air mass to slip into central IN come Tuesday morning.

A quite Tuesday is needed, as more active times loom come Wednesday…

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/20/scattered-severe-storms-tonight/

Thursday Evening Video Update…

You must be logged in to view this content. Click Here to become a member of IndyWX.com for full access.  Already a member of IndyWx.com All-Access?  Log-in here.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2016/06/16/thursday-evening-video-update-4/

IndyWx.com