Highlights:
- Cooler and mostly sunny
- Dry weather into the early parts of the work week
- Midweek storms
Early Fall Preview…A cold front swept through the state last night and was accompanied by strong storms and heavy rain. The unsettled conditions are now to our east and in return we’re left with a much cooler, drier, and breezy day. With low humidity, temperatures running significantly below normal, and a NW breeze in place, you have our approval to begin shifting thoughts to fall. 🙂
Dry and pleasant air will remain in place through early week before we back the air flow around to the SW. Increasingly muggy conditions will return Wednesday into Thursday and as a cold front interacts with the moist air in place, showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase Wednesday into Thursday. The good news? The front should slide to our south and result in dry and pleasant conditions next weekend.
Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:
- Snowfall: 0.00″
- Rainfall: 0.50″-0.75″
Despite lackluster model output from our American suite (latest NAM and SREF data, for instance, paints rainfall totals under 1″ across most central IN neighborhoods), the European remains consistent on the evolution of things from this weekend into the middle of next week. We’ll lean more towards it’s solution at this juncture. Simply put, when you have a stalled frontal boundary entraining tropical moisture, expect problems. Precipitable water values will approach and even exceed 2″ at times this weekend. Dew points will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s along and south of the boundary. Where the boundary stalls will be key in determining the heaviest rain totals and resulting flood problems that will ensue. For now, here’s the best idea we have in regards to local 4″+ totals between this weekend and next Wednesday.
It should also be pointed out that we’re not looking at all day rains Saturday through Wednesday, but instead “waves” of moisture throughout the period. Areas of locally heavy rain will be with us, but we’ll also see dry periods in between. Thankfully, as we move into the latter portions of next week, drier times should return.
That said, things will change as we progress into the prime heating hours of the afternoon and evening. Upper level energy will rotate east out of the Plains (this morning) and across Indiana this afternoon and evening.
This will help ignite thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. While a storm could impact any given neighborhood this evening, best concentration of storms should lie north of the I-70 corridor. Locally heavy rain will be a good bet with the stronger storms. Localized rainfall amounts in excess of 2″ will be possible.
Additional scattered thunderstorm activity will continue Saturday, but there will be many more dry hours than wet/ stormy.
