Category: Summer

Jul 19

Dangerously Hot Now, But We’re Talking About An Entirely Different Weather Pattern To Close July And Open August…

Over the weekend we’ll bake in some of the hottest and most humid air we’ve dealt with around these parts since 2012, however big relief is on the horizon.

We’ll get rid of the expansive upper level ridge responsible for the heat this weekend and replace it with a significant trough (at least by late summer standards).

Weekend heat and humidity will be about as bad as it can get around central Indiana. It’ll be important to build in frequent breaks indoors if you have any sort of lengthy outdoor activities planned.
A major pattern flip will result in unseasonably cool and refreshing air next week.

A strong cold front will sweep through the Ohio Valley Sunday and Monday with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms (a few may be strong). It’s this front that will help usher in the refreshing changes for next week. We’ll go from heat indices between 104-108 this weekend to overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s at times next week. Ahhhhhh….

As we look ahead to early August, there’s certain to be additional warm-hot days, however, the mean pattern doesn’t look to promote any sort of sustained significant heat through the early portion of the month. Perhaps the most interesting item showing up on the longer range guidance (EPS and GEFS) is a return of a northwesterly flow aloft and the potential of a wetter regime building in as we traverse the early August period.

Hang in there, the reward on the other side of the weekend will be worth it with cool, Canadian air flowing south.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/19/dangerously-hot-now-but-were-talking-about-an-entirely-different-weather-pattern-to-close-july-and-open-august/

Jul 18

VIDEO: Keeping An Eye On Storms To Our Northwest This Morning; Pattern Change On Deck Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/18/video-keeping-an-eye-on-storms-to-our-northwest-this-morning-pattern-change-on-deck-next-week/

Jul 17

“Sneaky” Storms Precede Dangerous Heat…

As we prepare for the hottest air of the summer, we’ll have to remain on guard for the potential of thunderstorms impacting at least a part of the state Thursday morning.

Upper level energy will track southeast into the state late tonight and early Thursday and combine with just enough energy to allow thunderstorms that should develop during the overnight (across southern WI and northern IL) to track into western Indiana during the predawn hours. (It should be pointed out this is separate from the convection that is currently resulting in warnings across MO and IL- as of 6:20p eastern time). Thereafter, these storms are expected to rumble into central Indiana in a weakening format around the morning rush Thursday.

Upper level energy will likely result in a weakening complex of storms pushing into central IN Thursday morning.
Forecast radar at 8a Thursday.

Thereafter, the big story will be the high heat and humidity that will lead to truly dangerous conditions across central Indiana beginning tomorrow afternoon into Sunday. Heat indices will top out between 100-105 each afternoon and in some cases a few degrees higher. It’ll be important to build in frequent breaks inside and drink plenty of water. Most, if not all, neighborhoods can expect to remain rain-free through the first half of the weekend (after we deal with our Thursday morning storms).

Thankfully, we still are forecasting a “game changer” of a cold front to plow through the region late Sunday and early Monday with storms (a few could be severe) followed by a much cooler and more refreshing air mass next week.

This is likely the first of a couple of cold fronts that will pass through the region between now and the end of the month, ensuring we wrap up July seasonal to cooler than average.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/17/sneaky-storms-precede-dangerous-heat/

Jul 17

VIDEO: Dangerous Heat This Weekend; Significant Pattern Change Next Week…

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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/17/video-dangerous-heat-this-weekend-significant-pattern-change-next-week/

Jul 16

VIDEO: Tropical Downpours Lead To Localized Flooding Later Today; Heat Gives Way To A Much Cooler Pattern…

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Jul 15

Barry’s Moisture Arrives; Dangerous Heat Builds And More On The Cool Pattern To Close The Month…

The remnant circulation of what at one time was Hurricane Barry is over north-central Arkansas and south-central Missouri as of Monday evening.

As you might imagine, this is helping pull juicy tropical air northbound. Note precipitable water values are exceeding 2″ now as far north as central Illinois and southwestern Indiana.

Rich, tropical air will continue to surge north and spread over central Indiana tonight and Tuesday. While we still don’t anticipate a widespread uniform soaking rain across central parts of the state, this will help lead to locally heavy downpours in scattered fashion over the upcoming 24-36 hours.

Precipitable water values will exceed 2″ Tuesday across most of the state.

In general, we still think most central Indiana rain gauges will accumulate between 0.50″ and 1″ of rain as Barry’s remnant moisture scoots across the state. That said, there will be locally heavier totals. Latest data continues to not only hint at these heavier totals being located across southeast portions of the state, but perhaps across northwest Indiana, as well.

Once we dry things out (through the day Wednesday) the big story will become the heat and humidity. A 5-day stretch of dangerously hot, humid conditions will claim headlines during the period Thursday through Monday, featuring overnight lows between 75-80 and daytime highs in the lower to middle 90s.

Thankfully, there are drivers that will result in a rather significant pattern change by early parts of next week. A “game changer” of a cold front is expected to sweep across the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday with gusty storms followed by much cooler conditions as we head into Week 2. These cooler temperatures are expected to carry the day as we put a wrap on the month of July. We’ll replace highs in the lower to middle 90s with upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s for the better part of the late month stretch.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/15/barrys-moisture-arrives-dangerous-heat-builds-and-more-on-the-cool-pattern-to-close-the-month/

Jul 15

VIDEO: Dealing With Barry’s Remnant Moisture; What’s Beyond The Heat Wave?

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Jul 13

VIDEO: What Does The 2nd Half Of July Have In Store?

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Jul 13

Barry Moves Inland; Pattern Progression Into Late July…

Tropical Storm Barry will make landfall today along the central LA coast as a strong tropical storm or hurricane (further strengthening is likely before making landfall later today). Gusts along the LA coast already this morning have reached 81 MPH. Once inland, the biggest concern with Barry’s remnants will come from a heavy rain and flooding situation. The heaviest rainfall will fall to the east of the center of circulation, encompassing central and eastern LA, western MS, eastern AR, and into western TN.

While Barry’s moisture will get into central Indiana early next week, we continue to believe the steady, heavier rainfall will remain across southern portions of the state. Overall, we don’t see any reason to alter our ongoing idea of where the heaviest axis of rain will set up shop. Tuesday into Wednesday appears to be the wettest period for the Ohio Valley from Barry. It’s possible a good portion of southern IN into central and southern OH receives 1″ to 2″ of rain with locally heavier totals during this time period. Understanding we’re talking about tropical remnants still roughly 72-84 hours away, some additional tweaking is likely to the forecast rainfall numbers.

Once Barry’s remnants exit to the east, the heat will be the big story for the 2nd half of the work week and into next weekend. Highs in the lower to middle 90s with overnight lows in the middle 70s can be expected as a ridge of high pressure expands over the region.

As we look beyond next week, the pattern should promote the axis of the ridge retrograding west. This would put the Ohio Valley in a more active northwest upper air flow, resulting in a backing off of the extreme heat and better rain/ storm chances as we progress through the last week of the month.

More later this afternoon with our video update! Enjoy your Saturday morning, friends.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/07/13/barry-moves-inland-pattern-progression-into-late-july/

Jul 12

VIDEO: Updated Thoughts On Barry; Heat Wave Gets Underway Late Next Week…

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