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Category: Summer
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/31/video-switching-gears-in-the-week-ahead/
May 29
VIDEO: Ready For A Refreshing Change? Discussing Precipitation Chances Next Week…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/29/video-ready-for-a-refreshing-change-discussing-precipitation-chances-next-week/
May 26
Sticky Now; Big Changes Arrive By The Weekend…
A warm and humid airmass will remain intact through the next 72 hours. Little impulses of energy scooting across the area will be all that’s needed to ignite scattered showers and thunderstorms, but not all will see rain. Due to the moisture content, those that do find themselves under a shower or storm can expect locally heavy totals. Thursday will likely offer up the best chance of more widespread thunderstorm activity.
Friday will continue to offer up scattered showers and thunderstorms courtesy of a cold front moving through the Ohio Valley. Once this front slides south, MUCH drier and cooler air will filter into central Indiana, leading to a fantastic weekend. A northeasterly flow around high pressure will create a much more refreshing feel. Lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s are a good bet this weekend.
The cooler, more refreshing air won’t stick around for more than a few days before warmth rebuilds. This is in association with the MJO moving into Phase 1 (a phase favoring widespread warmth across the Lower 48 this time of year). Drier conditions should prevail as temperatures warm early June.
An interesting item to keep tabs on has to do with the potential of tropical “mischief” in the Gulf towards mid-late month. If you have beach plans down to those beautiful Gulf Coast beaches, this is something I’d recommend keeping a close eye on over the next 2-3 weeks. Should something develop, the pattern would favor the central/ eastern Gulf it would appear from this distance.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/26/sticky-now-big-changes-arrive-by-the-weekend/
May 25
VIDEO: Late Week Cold Front Offers Up Changes…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/25/video-late-week-cold-front-offers-up-changes/
May 24
VIDEO: Warm And Humid Memorial Day Weekend; Timing Out Features Into Mid-June…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/24/video-warm-and-humid-memorial-day-weekend-timing-out-features-into-mid-june/
May 23
VIDEO: Rinse And Repeat; Warmth And Humidity On The Rise…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/23/video-rinse-and-repeat-warmth-and-humidity-on-the-rise/
May 22
Long Range Update: Warmth Once Again Takes A Back Seat To Cooler Times; Drier Open To June?
With meteorological summer looming around the corner, will the pattern follow suit? At least in the short-term, warmth and humidity will have things feeling very much like summer, but this warmer regime likely won’t hold. The culprit? You guessed it- developing negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO re-amplifying with eyes sets on the cooler phases to open June.
After a chilly May (month-to-date), most will welcome this weekend’s heat and humidity with open arms! This is courtesy of finally kicking the “cut off” low to the curb and replacing its’ influence with an upper level ridge. Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity is possible through the short-term, but coverage will be of the “splash and dash” variety- very typical of summer-time!
This warmer regime will be fleeting as a combination of ingredients align in a manner to drive cooler, more refreshing air back into the region as we close May and open June. Most notably this is being driven by a negative EPO, strongly positive PNA, and the MJO set to roll through Phases 7 and 8 during said period.
Accordingly, we note the models shifting things up quite significantly as we go into the Week 2 time period (May 29th-June 4th).
The cooler regime will likely also come with a drier overall pattern to open June, at least compared to average.
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/22/long-range-update-warmth-once-again-takes-a-back-seat-to-cooler-times-drier-open-to-june/
May 20
VIDEO: Warming Up For Memorial Day Weekend, But The Pattern Once Again Trends Cooler To Close May…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/20/video-warming-up-for-memorial-day-weekend-but-the-pattern-once-again-trends-cooler-to-close-may/
May 12
Major Flip On Deck; Discussing Longevity…
Indianapolis is running a whopping 8° below normal month-to-date. We’ve set new daily and all-time records already this month for the cold. Note the vast nature of this May chill.
If you’re not a fan of the late season chill, hang in there, as a major flip in the pattern awaits. We alluded to this possibility in our May Outlook and it continues to look like a rather abrupt change is a couple of days away. While we’re dealing with frost this morning in spots across east-central Indiana, it’s looking more and more likely that the first true summer-like surge of air for the season arrives Thursday into the weekend. Warmth will be accompanied by a significant uptick in humidity levels.
The Week 2 period looks warmest, relative to average, and should feature at least a couple of days with highs approaching the 85°-90° mark.
While most data maintains a warmer pattern to close the month, there are a couple of items to pay close attention to as we try and understand the longevity of said warmth.
- The MJO is forecast to remain “bottled up” in the wheelhouse through the next couple of weeks. Thereafter, there are indications that the MJO might become more amplified and it’ll be important to keep an eye on what phase(s) it’ll move through as we get set to close May/ open June.
2. The PNA is forecast to take a negative dip which supports the coming flip to warm. However, recent ensemble data is bullish on a move towards a positive (some data shows even strongly so) state around or just after Memorial Day. This would suggest the window of warmth may be limited in duration. Simply based on looking at the chart below, one could build a case for a cool open to meteorological summer.
Finally, on the precipitation front, a wetter pattern is anticipated to accompany the warm change, but longer range data points towards this being only a temporary wetter regime. In fact, recent models are beginning to agree on a dry close to May/ open to June.
Much more later!
Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2020/05/12/major-flip-on-deck-discussing-longevity/
Oct 15
Evening Video: A Tale Of Extended Summer That Gives Way To Sudden Winter…
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Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/2019/10/15/evening-video-a-tale-of-extended-summer-that-gives-way-to-sudden-winter/