Category Archives: Summer

Looking Ahead To The Merry Month Of May…

Folks are growing tired of the cold and snow, and for good reason; it’s mid-April for goodness sakes.  As of today, we’re currently ranked as the 5th snowiest spring (March-May) in recorded history, with Indianapolis recording 14.2″ thus far.  By the way, we’re only .3″ from moving into the 4th place spot.

With that said, it’s not just April that’s been unusually cold and snowy, but the entire year thus far.  As of April 15th, year-to-date CONUS temperatures are running more than 1° below average:

More specific to Indianapolis, here’s the monthly temperature breakdown so far for 2018:

  • April: 5.7° below normal (MTD)
  • March: 3.3° below normal
  • February: 5.6° above normal
  • January: 3.0° below normal

As we look ahead, there are a couple of key items that we’re monitoring closely to get a better idea as to where this pattern is heading as we rumble into the merry month of May:

NAO- does it show signs of finally flipping to a positive state with any sort of duration?

MJO- does it go into the “wheelhouse” or continue to rumble into the milder phases (5 and 6 this time of year)?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a bit troubling as it shows signs of heading towards a negative phase once again as we open the month of May.  This would promote the threat of colder than normal temperatures continuing in early May. With that said, May is the first month of the next several (until winter returns) where the overall influence of the NAO state begins to lessen it’s grip.  Unlike from the mid and late winter months into the early spring (Jan through April), mid and late spring, through the fall, isn’t controlled by the NAO.  With May being a “transition” month, we’ll favor a colder than average pattern continuing during the early portion of May as the NAO looks to trend negative.  As we move towards mid and late month, we won’t rely on the NAO like we have been lately as the said influence “wanes.”

The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast by most data to head towards the “null” phase.  The consensus of modeling takes it into the wheelhouse after traversing Phase 3 (present) which is a cold phase.  The end result?  Unfortunately, we can’t rely on the MJO with any sort of confidence from this distance for the month of May.

Looking at the data itself, the CFSv2 and European Weeklies (just to name a couple) show conflicting ideas.  The CFSv2 (courtesy of weatherbell.com) is in the warmer than normal camp for May while the NEW European Weeklies (courtesy of weathermodels.com) suggest the chill lingers throughout the month.

While we have conflicting temperature ideas, both suggest a drier than average month emerging:

At the end of the day, our call on May’s forecast from mid-April would be for an early cooler than average start before flipping towards more of a seasonable to slightly warmer than normal regime.  Our idea all along this spring has been that when this pattern flips, the potential is present to jump right to a summery feel.  In the face of the new European Weeklies, we still feel this warmer idea mid and late May is on the table.  We’re in agreement with the data of a drier than average month.

No Comments AG Report, Arctic Cold, Autumn, CFSv2, European Model, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Long Range Discussion, MJO, Monthly Outlook, NAO, snow, Spring, Summer, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

Sunday Morning Notebook; Active Pattern Remains…

For a change, the past (7) days has been generous to central Indiana from a precipitation perspective.  As we’ll discuss, a new rain maker awaits this week.

A look at rainfall totals over the past 7 days, courtesy of weatherbell.com.

Officially, IND sits at 0.26″ above normal, month-to-date.

It’s also been an incredibly warm start to the month (IND is running 10° above normal, month-to-date) and that warm theme won’t change through the near-term.

An all-too-familiar pattern engulfs the country late week.  This will showcase more “bonus” summer-like conditions, locally, that will include highs approaching 80° next weekend with a strong southerly flow in place.  Additionally, early winter-like conditions will continue to impact the western high ground.  The pattern definitely represents a Nina look.

The southeast ridge will provide more bonus summer-like conditions next weekend across the eastern half of the country.

In the shorter-term, a new rainmaker will move across the Ohio Valley Tuesday into Wednesday.  This will spread showers and embedded thunder across the state Tuesday PM into Wednesday.  In general, this storm system should deliver 0.50″ – 1″ of rain, but there will be locally heavier amounts.

Thereafter, dry times will settle in along with slightly cooler temperatures.  Let’s remember it was only a few days ago where modeling suggested a “pop” of the season’s coldest air thus far.  No longer is that the case, and while it will turn briefly cooler, temperatures will still remain above average.

A southerly air flow will return late week and help boost temperatures next weekend, along with continued dry times through the balance of the weekend.  From this distance, our next storm system should arrive late Sunday or early Monday in the form of a cold front.

Looking longer-term, there are indications that colder conditions loom as we wrap up October and head into November and we’ll discuss this in more detail later this week…

No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast Discussion, Forecast Models, Harvest'17, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm, Weather Rambles

More Rain For Some; Watching Nate…

Highlights:

  • Wet close to the work week for some
  • Saturday storms
  • Watching Nate

Unsettled Close To The Work Week…Thursday’s weather was just what the doctor ordered!  Officially, here at IndyWx HQ, we recorded 0.73″.  Many neighborhoods throughout central IN accumulated more than 1″ of much needed rainfall!  Thankfully, additional rain chances are present as we wrap up the work week.  Most widespread showers and embedded thunder will impact the northern half of the state Friday, especially the northern third of the state.

As we flip the page over to the weekend, mostly dry conditions can be expected, with the exception of a skinny line of thunderstorms that will blow through the state Saturday evening.  These will come and go rather quickly and we’ll get into a slightly cooler and drier regime to wrap up the weekend.

Attention this weekend will be what comes of Nate.  Overall, ideas haven’t changed over the past 24 hours, including an eventual late weekend landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast.  That said, precise all-important details concerning overall strength are still debatable.  Interests along the north-central Gulf Coast should monitor updates closely.  Here on the home front, we note subtle differences between the GFS and European in regards to inland impacts.  For now, we’ll go with a blend between the two, thinking most of the more significant, steady rains remain southeast of central Indiana.

Eventually a cold front will sweep through the state Tuesday night.  This will result in a NW wind shift and cooler air spilling in here later next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.25″ – 0.75″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Warm, Windy

Bonus Summertime…

Highlights:

  • Scattered shower and t-storm chances return
  • Warm pattern continues
  • Changes loom later next week

Enjoy The Warmth While We Have It…A frontal boundary will “meander” around the Ohio Valley over the next couple of days.  It’ll sink south as we close the work week before lifting back north as a warm front this weekend.  At the same time, surface low pressure will track from the Plains into the Great Lakes this weekend.  The end result will be more unsettled conditions returning to the region after our extended dry spell.  It certainly won’t rain the entire time (in fact, most of the forecast period will be rain-free), but plan for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms at times beginning as early as Wednesday.  Additionally, as the front sags south Friday, slightly cooler air will work into central Indiana before a warmer southerly air flow takes over once again this weekend.

As we flip the page to next week, a couple of frontal boundaries will push southeast.  Additionally, the “wild card” in this forecast is what may eventually become of an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico.  While modeling differs on the evolution of things, a couple of solutions bring this into the north-central Gulf Coast this weekend before moving north and delivering widespread rain inland.  It’s far too early for specifics, but we’ll keep a close eye on things.

Back to the FROPA discussion:  The initial front won’t have much impact on area temperatures (still well above normal), but will be enough to include widely scattered storm chances early next week.  The second frontal passage will lead to a MUCH cooler feel just beyond the current 7-day period.  In fact, the air will grow chilly enough in the 8-10 day timeframe where it’ll actually feel more like November, and the first frost of the season may await for most of central Indiana…

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″
No Comments 7-Day Outlook, Autumn, First frost, Forecast, Rain, Summer, T-storms, Tropics, Unseasonably Cool Weather, Unseasonably Warm