Category: Summer

Jul 20

JMA Weeklies: Seasonal Pattern To Open August

The new JMA Weeklies are in and highlighted by the following:

  • Central hot pattern doesn’t last
  • Seasonal pattern takes hold
  • Heat builds across the Northeast region

Week 1:

Hottest anomalies remain across the central region, but the days are numbered on this pulse of heat and the JMA Weeklies suggest a cooler, more seasonal, pattern looms to close July and open August.  We note the wet regime across the Southwest region, where associated cooler anomalies are also located.

Week 2:

It’s a “book end” hot pattern that includes heat along both the Northwest region and a developing hot pattern over the Northeast.  The central region, including here on the home front, looks very seasonal.  With a subtle northwest flow aloft, we’ll have to be mindful of storm complexes at times.

Weeks 3-4:

Our attention is drawn to the heat across the Northeast region and the cooler, wetter regime (relative to average) across the Southwest.  Locally, there aren’t any strong indications for big time heat or heavy rains.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/jma-weeklies-seasonal-pattern-to-open-august/

Jul 18

Increasingly Hot And Humid…

Highlights:

  • Increasingly hot and humid
  • Isolated storm coverage becomes more widespread
  • Relief next week

Air You Can Wear…The big weather story will be the increasingly hot and humid feel as we progress through the week and on into the weekend.  The combination of dew points in the 70s and wet soils across the state should “beat back” the heat from getting to where it otherwise could (mid-upper 90s), but it’ll feel oppressive, nonetheless.  Plan to hydrate and wear cool, lightweight clothing if you plan to be outdoors for any length of time.

While we can’t completely rule out a renegade storm through Friday, most neighborhoods will remain free of any rain through the remainder of the work week.  Better coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend into early next week as the transition from hot, humid weather begins to give way to a more pleasant feel.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 0.50″ – 1.00″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/increasingly-hot-and-humid/

Jul 17

Monday Morning Rambles…

1.)  July, MTD, is running slightly cooler (- 0.1°) and much wetter (+ 2.31″) than average across the region.

2.)  While the radar is rain and storm-free this morning, a left over boundary, combined with daytime heating will help spark isolated to widely scattered storm coverage this afternoon.

3.)  The big weather story this week will be an increasingly hot and humid feel once to mid and late week, including the weekend.  While today will continue the theme of slightly cooler than average from the weekend, we’ll more than make up for the refreshing feel later this week.  Highs will push to around 90° Wednesday through Sunday as the ridge expands.

4.)  Despite the hot and humid feel that develops this week, it won’t last.  Like so many other times this summer that heat tries to build east, the transient weather pattern will continue to prevent it from “hitting and holding.”  You guessed it, as we transition from the hot conditions to cooler weather next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase, including the potential of heavy rain.  As of now, best rain and storm chances appear lined up for late week through the weekend and into early next week.

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/monday-morning-rambles-5/

Jul 16

Afternoon And Evening Rumbles…

Highlights:

  • T-storms arrive this afternoon
  • Heating up this week
  • Stormy periods late-week

Pleasant Start; Stormy Finish…After we got rid of the low level clouds and fog Saturday, it turned out to be a gorgeous day!  The balance of our Sunday will also be very pleasant, but a frontal boundary will push through the state this evening and will be sufficient enough to kick up a line of showers and thunderstorms that will impact central IN this afternoon and evening.  One or two of the storms could reach severe levels (large hail and damaging wind).

As we look forward, the big weather story this week will be the increasingly hot and muggy feel by late-week.  Factor in that highs will approach 90° the second half of the week, along with dew points exceeding 70° and the stage will be set for a truly “oppressive” feel.  Prepare to sweat.

Along with the increasingly heat and humidity, we’ll also note an increase in overall coverage of showers and thunderstorms through the late-week stretch.  Individual disturbances will create periods of more widespread storms and with such a moisture rich air mass in place, expect periods of locally heavy rainfall.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1.50″ – 2.50″

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/afternoon-and-evening-rumbles/

Jul 13

Another Stormy Day, But Relief Is Coming…

Highlights:

  • Storms increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon
  • More refreshing air arrives for the weekend
  • Quiet start to next week

Stormy Afternoon On Deck…A frontal boundary will slip into the state today and slowly push south over the next 24 hours, eventually making it out of the state Friday.  The combination of this trigger (front) along with a genuinely “soupy” air mass (precipitable water values will be north of 2″ and dew points will remain in the low-mid 70s) will result in increasing storm coverage this afternoon into the evening hours.  Some of the storms may become severe and it also won’t take much for flash flooding to develop where storms train.  In some cases, these storms will dump rainfall rates of 2″-3″/ hour.  From a severe stand point, we’re most concerned for the potential of damaging straight line winds.

Thankfully, we’ll clear things out in time for the upcoming weekend.  With the exception of a few morning thunderstorms downstate Friday, the trend will be a drier one and that will continue into Saturday.  Along with the drier air, we’ll also note slightly cooler temperatures.  It’ll feel much more refreshing than the past couple days.

A weak reinforcing cold front will sweep through the state Sunday evening and this boundary could kick-up a scattered thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon-evening before we return to dry times Monday and Tuesday.  Moisture (and heat) will return by the middle of next week.

Upcoming 7-Day Precipitation Forecast:

  • Snowfall: 0.00″
  • Rainfall: 1″-2″ (locally heavier totals)

Permanent link to this article: https://indywx.com/another-stormy-day-but-relief-is-coming/